Posted 2008-November-03, 12:28
I've got the one dissenting vote for 3NT.
It seems like we have plenty of values, and we are fairly likely to get a diamond lead against 3NT into the king. We can than cash out our clubs and some tricks from partner's hand.
While it is true that there are hands where 4♠ makes more tricks than 3NT, there are other considerations here. The 3♦ preempt implies that we may be getting lousy breaks (often a problem in 4♠, less so in 3NT). We are likely to get a diamond lead away from the ace against 3NT whereas we are unlikely to see that lead against spades. Our clubs provide a lot of fast tricks, implying that we may not need to lose the lead (losing the lead is a big problem in 3NT after our sole diamond stopper is removed, not as big a problem in spades). And there is a possibility (however small) that partner has only three spades. Sure, we should have a club fit then, but I don't put much faith in making 5♣. For example: ♠Kxx ♥AQxx ♦xx ♣Jxxx is a hand where I think many would negative double and 3NT seems by far the best game.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit