[gwnn]

KQ5
Q943
QT2
Q94

2NT-3NT, your lead, imps

[Walddk]

♥3

[shintaro]

4♥ i play 3rds

[rogerclee]

♥3, there is no great reason to assume that trying to establish spades is better than hearts, and in fact, it will very very often present declarer with an extra trick. I don't think there is any alternative to this lead, and I would not like to play bridge with someone who routinely tried to make genius leads like the ♠K here with no reason to do so.

[dburn]

I'm not sure ♠K is a "genius lead" - after all, if partner has the jack it will not blow a trick. The same cannot be said of a heart, which will blow a trick in at least as many positions as a spade.

Not that I would lead a spade - I would lead a heart in any case, because I may have enough entries to recover the blown trick by establishing a long heart. However, I consider it close, and I would not be at all surprised to find that a spade was the winner.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

hearts.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[655321]

♥3.

I don't think this is simple, though.

♠K is my second choice. But even if partner has the ♠J he probably has no entry, so we have only succeeded in making a safe lead, not a killing lead. Well, partner could have the ♠A, or declarer could hold the ♠A doubleton, partner holding 5 or 6 spades to the Jack, so there are some big successes for a spade lead. But there are also big losses too, particularly when the ♠J is in dummy, or declarer has spade length.

Basically, I am just leading 4th best from my longest suit.

[jdonn]

I would lead a spade (sorry I don't think I'm trying to be a genius?) I just think partner with Jxxxx and declarer with Ax is my best chance to set this. It's not like a heart is safe either, and it takes more in hearts to set.

[cherdano]

jdonn, on Oct 27 2008, 11:01 AM, said:

I would lead a spade (sorry I don't think I'm trying to be a genius?) I just think partner with Jxxxx and declarer with Ax is my best chance to set this. It's not like a heart is safe either, and it takes more in hearts to set.

It takes more than ♥Jxxxx and ♥Ax with declarer for a heart lead to succeed?

[jdonn]

cherdano, on Oct 27 2008, 12:16 PM, said:

jdonn, on Oct 27 2008, 11:01 AM, said:

I would lead a spade (sorry I don't think I'm trying to be a genius?) I just think partner with Jxxxx and declarer with Ax is my best chance to set this. It's not like a heart is safe either, and it takes more in hearts to set.

It takes more than ♥Jxxxx and ♥Ax with declarer for a heart lead to succeed?

Since that would give declarer two stoppers in hearts, yes it does. It's also less likely for him to be longer in your longer suit.

[effervesce]

cherdano, on Oct 27 2008, 12:16 PM, said:

jdonn, on Oct 27 2008, 11:01 AM, said:

I would lead a spade (sorry I don't think I'm trying to be a genius?) I just think partner with Jxxxx and declarer with Ax is my best chance to set this. It's not like a heart is safe either, and it takes more in hearts to set.

It takes more than ♥Jxxxx and ♥Ax with declarer for a heart lead to succeed?

Given you have 4 hearts vs 3 spades, the chances of partner having Jxxxx of spades is indeed higher than having Jxxxx of hearts (declarer has at least two spades and two hearts- thus there are 8 spades left to be divvied up vs 7 left for hearts between LHO, CHO and RHO)

[han]

FWIW someone asked me to do a double-dummy simulation with this hand. It gave as answer that a low heart was slightly slightly more likely than a spade lead to defeat the contract.