Posted 2008-October-18, 19:00
I'll bitch first.
There's no way I lead a diamond here. Usually LHO will be 4-6 for this bidding. I would lead a heart and I think its clear.
Once dummy comes down, and the ♦ is returned, pard appears to be Kxx6(x?) of diamonds. 2/3 of the time he will have the ♦J of course. So, at T2, I might not have unblocked the diamond, but in retrospect it looks right. I have no idea if pard would have hit 3♦ with KJxxx and a little more but I'm not going to waste my time thinking about this.
As the play continues, RHO looks like: KJTxx, ????, ???, x. (I doubt this joker is stranding the ♣AK in dummy with a 5=4=4=0 or a 5=5=3=0). Clearly RHO needs at least one heart honor for the bidding, and pard would have overcalled 1♦ with both. Come to think of it, anyone I would play with overcall 1♦ with ♠Qxx, [di[Kxxxx (definitely with the J, and maybe without it) and a heart honor.
Therefore, I can put RHO on specifically ♠KJTxx ♥AKxx ♦xxx ♣x. Thats 11 tricks with the club hook and I'm ripe for a squeeze for 12.
I'd love to deflect this line of play, so I'll try my hardest and dump a club early, followed by a heart and then a diamond. Maybe he'll try for a throw in or something.
By the way, all this assume pard doesn't have have ♦K6x, but then declarer surely rebids 2♦, but who knows with these two.
"Phil" on BBO