cardsharp, on Oct 8 2008, 05:02 PM, said:
And I appear to be out of line on this problem as I think this hand is really a bit too good for 2♥. Playing 5-card majors I would be showing an 8-loser hand and supporting at the 3-level and, despite the total lack of support, I'm tempted to do the same under these system conditions.
Paul
You're not the only one that thinks this hand is too strong for 2
♥. A good 8hcp (that only includes one quack), 6331 shape, singleton in opps suit, 3 card support for opener's major which is almost certainly 5 cards unless substantially stronger than minimum looks more like a 3
♥ raise to me.
It is true that I would be happier with 3
♥ if the
♠T was a club - or if the
♥A and
♣K swapped suits - but 2
♥ is just too wimpish.
I have examined several hundreds of hands where opener is not strong enough to go on after a 2
♥ bid. From a purely constructive point of view, 2
♥ would appear to be the stronger bid as there are a few too many cases where 3
♥ is one down. But, there are also a lot of cases where you find 4
♥ after responding 3
♥, but there are not quite enough of these to balance the down one cases (you lose a fraction of an IMP per board on average).
However, that is not the end of the story. In the vast majority of cases where partner has not enough to go on after 2
♥ opps have at least 8 tricks available in
♦ and probably better than half the time, 9 or more tricks. They are not going to be letting you play in 2
♥.
So what happens after one of the opps bids 3
♦?
If passed round to you, then you should be calling 3
♥. The hand was nearly worth it anyway, and you're only wrong when neither 3 level contract makes (but this only happens about 10-15% of the time). But is partner going to raise 3 to 4 when you have made what sounds like a purely competitive bid? Unlikely I would have thought. So, bidding 2
♥ first throws away all the constructive advantage that a direct 3
♥ bid had.
Alternatively, partner with poor looking defence may call 3
♥ himself over 3
♦ - but will you raise this to 4 with any confidence - well - you might depending on if you think 3
♥ from partner shows extras in this auction - or simply lack of defence.
Further, there are quite a few cases where opps can make 4
♦ or save against 3
♥ for only one down - but they are much more likely to get this wrong if you bid 3
♥ in the first place.
So, 3
♥ is clearly better in my view.
But if people didn't use antiquated Milton Work Points (this hand is only 8hcp) then perhaps more experts would have been able to envisage this.
Nick
"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.