[ironyuppie]

This hand generated some discussion at another forum, and I wanted to see what you fine gentlemen had to say:

IMP BBO tourney w/w

My hand, sitting 4th seat
♠K4
♥AQT95
♦AJ965
♣A

P-3C-P-?????

Assume a typical/opps and standard methods.

[gwnn]

3♥, followed up by 4♦ unless partner rebids 3♠. The thinking goes like this:

-I need to bid 3♥ in case we have a fit.
-If partner rebids 4♣ I will look for a diamond fit.
-If partner rebids 3NT that means he has something in diamonds and our spade stop is dubious, so 5♦ looks like it has chances.
-If partner rebids 3♠ (showing 3 or 4) then I'd try 3NT because now I'm not so afraid of spades.

Oh yes and no I wouldn't look for a slam, if that's what you're interested in. I have a stiff ace in partner's suit and he doesn't have opening strength.

[awm]

I'll just note that it's very possible for your best contract on this hand to be 5♣. For example opposite:

♠Qxx
♥xx
♦x
♣KQJxxxx

Good luck in 3NT or 4♥ opposite this hand.

Starting 3♥ is reasonable in case partner can raise, but I think if not I would try 5♣ rather than looking for a diamond fit (partner is very likely to correct 4♦ to 4♥ on a small doubleton, and this is not necessarily going to play well, and 5♣ over that is not necessarily to play either).

[pclayton]

gwnn, on Oct 3 2008, 02:33 PM, said:

If partner rebids 3♠ (showing 3 or 4) then I'd try 3NT because now I'm not so afraid of spades.

Spades may only be your first worry in 3N.

Opposite a fairly normal xxx xx x KQxxxxx I would not expect to make anything close to 9 tricks in 3N.

I think 3♥ is fine. Sometimes we get a raise. If pard doesn't raise I'm running back to 4♣ and hope we make it.

Good hand for a sim.

[helene_t]

Hi Ironyuppie, welcome to the forum! I hope uou will enjoy our company! Great nickname btw.

I think I would just bid 5♣ if partner can't support hearts. But gwnn (Csaba)'s reasoning makes a lot of sense.

[the hog]

3H to start off with. Pd is not barred from having 3 card support.

[whereagles]

Think I'll just bid 5♣. Not sure the hand'll play good in hearts, even with a fit, say...

xx
xxx
x
KQJxxxx

[benlessard]

You will have a hard time finding an expert that will not bid 3H.

[ochinko]

As others said if you're going to move forward the odds are that the only game possible would be in ♣. Partner's hand is very weak so if it's going to take tricks ♣ should be trumps as partner is not very likely to have a side entry.

[gwnn]

I don't like all those constructions with all the x's outside of clubs, while I agree those are the "ideal" hands, they are far far from typical, or you are preempting far far less often than you're supposed to.

xx
x
Kxxx
QJTxxx

or

x
x
KQxx
JTxxxxx

And these are just the arguments for looking for diamonds.

[gnasher]

I'd pass.

It's all very well picturing hands with three hearts, a singleton, and lots of lovely top clubs, but in the real world partner often has a broken suit, and if he has three cards in a major it's much more likely to be in spades than in hearts.

He will often raise 3♥ on a doubleton; how will you play 4♥ opposite xxx xx x KQJxxxx? Even if he has three hearts, the top clubs, and a singleton diamond, game will be marginal at best.

The idea that 5♣ might make also seems optimistic. Of the two examples offered so far, Qxx xx x KQJxxxx is a complete maximum; xx xxx x KQJxxxx has the best suit you can hope for and the red suits the right way around, and game is still only about 50%.

[rogerclee]

I think this is a good problem. Even if partner has 3♥, the hand may play very badly in hearts. It is not my style to avoid game if possible, and from constructing hands, it seems likely that 5♣ will be more likely to make than 3NT, so I will bid 5♣. I am interested in what a simulation has to say about this hand.

[the hog]

Actually there is quite a nice Klinger gadget here:
3? 3something
1 step = 0/1 card support, 2 steps = 2 cards, 3 steps = 3 small, 4 steps = 3+ to an honour.

[ArcLight]

I ran 260 hands through Deal Master pro.
I specified 7 clubs, less than 5 cards in any major, and either KQ or 3 of (K Q J T) in clubs, 5-11 HCP.

Note - on a few hands one of the defenders had 7 spades, and weak hands. I didn't factor in if they would bid.

4H or 5C was making around 3 out of 4 hands.

The club game has around a 2/3 chance of making

4H by itself was making around 50% of the time. This was a double dummy analysis, and included hands with any number of hearts, and may also be making 11 tricks in Clubs.

If opener has 3 hearts, game is around 85%, though this is not that common, perhaps 20+ percent.

What was interesting is much of the time it was making opener (the preemptor) had just 2 hearts. Around 75% of the time 4H makes, opener had just 2 hearts.


If opener doesnt have 3+ hearts, the club game was likely to make.

Assume with 2 of fewer hearts opener rebids clubs.

It seems that overall, game has a reasonable shot (depending on what your agreement is for the 3C opener, if its J65432 then pass) and its worth bidding.

It does seem to be worth bidding 3H, then 5C over 4C.
And passing 4H.

3NT is less than 50% though better than I expected and not that far off.
5D was unlikely to make, around 20%

[JoAnneM]

Speaking of neat names - Arclight, your's reminds me of something my husband was involved in from 1968-1973. I wonder if that is the soucre of your name.

[ArcLight]

JoAnneM, on Oct 4 2008, 10:52 PM, said:

Speaking of neat names - Arclight, your's reminds me of something my husband was involved in from 1968-1973. I wonder if that is the soucre of your name.

Correct.

[gnasher]

ArcLight, on Oct 5 2008, 01:47 AM, said:

I specified 7 clubs, less than 5 cards in any major, and either KQ or 3 of (K Q J T) in clubs, 5-11 HCP.

If that really describes what a 3♣ opening looks like in your part of the world, I have more sympathy with bidding. To me, though, those criteria sound like something from the 1950s (or Mars, possibly). If it were my simulation, I'd make it something like:

0-9 HCP
Either 7 clubs with at least 2 of the top five (but not AKQ), or 6 clubs with at least 3 of the top five and a singleton in a major
No ace outside clubs
Not more than one king or queen outside clubs
Fewer than 4 cards in either major

That's not an attempt to simulate my own preempting style - it's what I'd regard as mainstream.

[gwnn]

Seriously Andy, 0-9 is not really mainstream (well not what I would consider mainstream). No outside aces sounds like a good idea but not as an absolute restriction, just as a guideline. I don't think a majority of players would pass on

Ax xxx x QJTxxxx

or

KQx x xx JTxxxxx

but automatically open on

xx xx xx JTxxxxx

which seems to be your description. With that said, your description seems to be much closer than Arc's.

[ironyuppie]

helene_t, on Oct 3 2008, 06:00 PM, said:

Hi Ironyuppie, welcome to the forum! I hope uou will enjoy our company! Great nickname btw.

I think I would just bid 5♣ if partner can't support hearts. But gwnn (Csaba)'s reasoning makes a lot of sense.

Thanks! I've actually been reading this forum for quite some time, I've just been to lazy to register/post. I love the discussion on this forum.

[ironyuppie]

Thanks everyone. The discussion in the other forum was between bidding 3♥ and going to game, bidding 3♥ and passing 4♣, just going to 5♣ immediately.

I felt that the hand would play badly in anything but clubs due to the likely poor communication with all of the finesses we are going to want to take. But maybe that is not worth having to make an extra trick.