[fred]

Al_U_Card, on Sep 30 2008, 01:02 AM, said:

fred, on Sep 29 2008, 05:59 PM, said:

pigpenz, on Sep 29 2008, 08:10 PM, said:

is this good or bad?

I do not know anywhere near enough about economics to offer an informed opinion, but I do know that my friend Warren Buffett claims that some form of bailout, though highly distasteful, is unfortunately necessary.

Warren understands the workings of the financial world as well as anyone and he is also a man of great integrity - he would never make a statement like this unless he genuinely believed it was true.

So I am concluding that it is bad

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

And he might not be just a bit influenced by his standing as a man of great riches?

Really you question does not deserve an answer, because it should be obvious from my previous post that I think the answer to your question is "no".

I made it clear that I think Buffett is a man of great character.

Probably you know people that you feel that way about. How would you like it if some random stranger questioned your ability to judge character and your friend's integrity in this way?

I suspect you would either be less polite about it than I am being or you would simply ignore the person (as I no doubt should have ignored you).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[Al_U_Card]

As Warren Buffet said, “Only when the tide goes out do you
discover who’s been swimming naked.” .......

and something of a cynic, as well?

[Al_U_Card]

My skin is plenty thin, thanks.

And I don't have billions to instill awe and respect.

We are all voyagers on this ship of a planet. Some in steerage, some in first class.

[Lobowolf]

Al_U_Card, on Sep 29 2008, 08:43 PM, said:

As Warren Buffet said, “Only when the tide goes out do you
discover who’s been swimming naked.” .......

and something of a cynic, as well?

Unless I'm misinterpreting the analogy, sounds like just a statement of fact.

[Al_U_Card]

matmat, on Sep 29 2008, 08:18 PM, said:

Al_U_Card, on Sep 29 2008, 08:08 PM, said:

And the geniuses that brought us the "reworked" mortgage security?  Kind of like the "reworked" bond from back in the '80's....(Michael Millikan anyone?) He too claimed the instrument to be a good thing until it unravelled and caused quite the "recession".

Those in the know take advantage, as that is their rightful due (in their minds) for they are well placed.  The herd that is milked is only performing its purpose, no?

They shout that the sky is falling and we all run terrified.  The sky is always falling, it is only when they go beyond their abilities to maintain control that they cry wolf.

I am fairly sure that the sky has already fallen. The issue with holding those that effed up accountable is that it will take additional millions in taxpayer dollars to successfully (or unsuccessfully) prosecute them. I can imagine the hearings now....
"and at which point did you know that there was a problem?"
"what exactly, do you mean by 'know'?"

ugh

Well, they pretty much used up the "failure to recollect" defense....

btw, when Fric and Frac went to congress to impress the rubes, why was Cheney there with them? He is an economic genius too?

Something is rotten in the state of ship...

[Al_U_Card]

Lobowolf, on Sep 29 2008, 08:45 PM, said:

Al_U_Card, on Sep 29 2008, 08:43 PM, said:

As Warren Buffet said, “Only when the tide goes out do you
discover who’s been swimming naked.” .......

and something of a cynic, as well?

Unless I'm misinterpreting the analogy, sounds like just a statement of fact.

Yup, the facts are that they claimed to know what was safe to use and what was toxic.....I guess our trust was misplaced?

[Mbodell]

So, it was a little bit dry at times, but Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book The Black Swan would probably be a good book made more relevant in recent times.

[kenberg]

fred, on Sep 29 2008, 08:29 PM, said:

Al_U_Card, on Sep 30 2008, 01:02 AM, said:

fred, on Sep 29 2008, 05:59 PM, said:

pigpenz, on Sep 29 2008, 08:10 PM, said:

is this good or bad?

I do not know anywhere near enough about economics to offer an informed opinion, but I do know that my friend Warren Buffett claims that some form of bailout, though highly distasteful, is unfortunately necessary.

Warren understands the workings of the financial world as well as anyone and he is also a man of great integrity - he would never make a statement like this unless he genuinely believed it was true.

So I am concluding that it is bad

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

And he might not be just a bit influenced by his standing as a man of great riches?

Really you question does not deserve an answer, because it should be obvious from my previous post that I think the answer to your question is "no".

I made it clear that I think Buffett is a man of great character.

Probably you know people that you feel that way about. How would you like it if some random stranger questioned your ability to judge character and your friend's integrity in this way?

I suspect you would either be less polite about it than I am being or you would simply ignore the person (as I no doubt should have ignored you).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

And my opinion might be influenced by being a man of no great riches. Of course. But there are a lot of people out there whose market philosophy can be roughly summed up as "Watch what Buffet does and then try to do that before everyone else catches on". I would say his opinions deserve more than a passing glance.

[Al_U_Card]

Foxes in the henhouse.

When you can invest and own part of the operation and it produces goods of value then that is good.

When you "bet" on rises or falls in the value of the subjective appreciation of how the operation might do under certain circumstances....

When you derive financial instruments based on arbitrage and other fine and dandy theoretical models...

When you can produce money but prefer to borrow it at interest...

When you cut taxes on the well to do and deprive people of their future or medical care...

The litany is endless. There is little hope....but there is some. The power of the people to resist oppression and exploitation requires only awareness and intention. That is how 1776 grew into a republic.

[Al_U_Card]

We don't need to go into the oil in Iraq etc. to understand that economic woes at home (even if they are exacerbated by the deficits entrained by the conflict) trump dying soldiers and foreigners with the voting public.

Just ask yourself one question:

When that bank(er) was approving that crappy loan (they used to only loan to people that didnt need the money....lol) did they or did they not realize that it wasn't a problem because they would be able to package it up and sell it off and....some poor sap (not the bank or its shareholders) would get stuck with it....np

The answer to that question is why they cannot be let off the hook.

[Al_U_Card]

It all distills down to value for money. Not speculation for money. Not debt for money. Just value. Something being worth what it costs. Not what someone hopes it will be worth whenever...

The US has gone from World Financial Icon to third-world financial basket case. They won't be able to lower interest rates to counter the inflation that is coming due to the influx of cash (debt) needed for the bailout. The world bank is not far away. Another one of your precious freedoms and rights, on the way to the crapper, thanks to the neocons and their theories and practices.

There is little hope but there is still some. A groundswell of public sentiment and the resolve of the common person to insist that the government return to its of, for and by the people motive and modus.

[jikl]

If I answered this I would offend far too many people.

Sean

(by this I mean thread, not the previous post or a particular post)

[Al_U_Card]

Go for it!! (Its the cooler after all, despite some superfluous indignation here and there )

Just a reminder:

9-29 2008 -778 pts or -7%
9-17 2001 -685 pts or -7%
10-27 '97 -554 pts or -7%

10-19 '87 -508 pts or -23% !!!!!!!!! and we survived without any bailout.

When the man in the 10-gallon hat (or business suit) yells "Stampede!" is he warning you or is he creating one?...

[cherdano]

Al_U_Card, on Sep 29 2008, 09:16 PM, said:

Go for it!! (Its the cooler after all, despite some superfluous indignation here and there )

Just a reminder:

9-29 2008 -778 pts or -7%
9-17 2001 -685 pts or -7%
10-27 '97 -554 pts or -7%

10-19 '87 -508 pts or -23% !!!!!!!!! and we survived without any bailout.

When the man in the 10-gallon hat (or business suit) yells "Stampede!" is he warning you or is he creating one?...

Some sort of bailout is still likely. So the 7% drop was just the difference between 90% chance of a bailout happening, and maybe a 70% chance of a bailout happening. So if nothing else is done to solve the problem, expect another 20% drop in the market.

Short version: Market thinks no bailout will lead to a severe recession.

[Lobowolf]

Al_U_Card, on Sep 29 2008, 09:49 PM, said:

It all distills down to value for money. Not speculation for money. Not debt for money. Just value. Something being worth what it costs. Not what someone hopes it will be worth whenever...

So if you can still make your house payments, a decline in market value shouldn't bother you.

With respect to tax cuts for the rich...well...to be fair, they ARE the ones paying the taxes.

[naresh301]

Lobowolf, on Sep 29 2008, 08:36 PM, said:

With respect to tax cuts for the rich...well...to be fair, they ARE the ones paying the taxes.

We should steal from the rich. After all, they ARE the ones with money...

[jikl]

Quote

With respect to tax cuts for the rich...well...to be fair, they ARE the ones paying the taxes.

I think you will find that in nearly every country, the richer you are the less you pay in taxes on a percentage basis. You have the best accountants, the best financial advisors etc

Sean

[glen]

what I noticed today was that discussion on this subject in financial forums was about 95% emotion, 5% thought, the worst I've seen it in many years - "ideas" for individual investors included be mostly cash, mostly grains, mostly oil, mostly real estate, sell all stocks now, buy low stocks now, be 100% debt free etc. - blame was given out to almost anybody - articles that were years old were dug up for "eye told u sew" - estimates of the problem ranged upwards to $20 trillion of toxicity - random guesses of what is about to occur include collapse, complete disaster, resiliency, meltdown, hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, and californation

[mike777]

Note mainstreet lost over a trillion bucks today in the market.

Bailout plan is only 700 Billion assuming we lose every red cent.

[jdeegan]

Latest as of midnight CST in the U.S. - Yesterday's bill got defeated because e-mails and phone calls were running almost 100% against it in conservative congressional districts. Since 6pm CST a complete reversal - the same e-mails and phone calls are running 10 to 1 to do something to reverse the stock market decline by passing something - anything - next time around. Look for a finished bill by next Monday at the latest. It should include a directive to deep six the ridiculous (at least during a financial crisis) 'mark to market' accounting rule.

Do I think the delay is a good thing or a bad thing? I doubt anyone cares, but for what it's worth, I think the delay in passing a bailout will be seen on balance as a bit of a negative. The ultimate bailout bill will be better, but the delay has rattled the financial markets, and this might turn things ugly for a while. In the final analysis, if you can't trust Baron Paulson and Cardinal Bernanke, at least for a few months time, then we are all screwed.