[TimG]

Codo, on Sep 30 2008, 03:16 AM, said:

But otoh: Bidding will surely result in a minus. My shape screams defending and I have not many tricks in offense too and I don*'t spoil partners tricks with length in some side suits.

Here passing did not work because: Diamonds are 4-1, the spades behind the doubler, no way for us to lead trumps to cut down ruffs.

Often times the minus in 5m will be a good sacrifice against 4H (or 4Hx).

Suppose they are playing in a simply 4H at the other table and you pass this double. When 4H makes, you lose 5 IMPs; when 4H does down one, you win 5 IMPs; when 4H makes an overtrick, you lose 8 IMPs; when 4H goes down 2, you win 7 Imps. In order for you to win IMPs by passing, you have to think you are going to beat them more than half the time. If this is a clear takeout double (the 2nd time around) and you give your vulnerable opponents a bit of credit, I don't think you will be beating them more than 1/2 the time.

Well, maybe you are already in a position to lose IMPs no matter what you do and you will lose fewer by passing than by pulling to 5m? Of course it depends on the relative frequencies of both 4H and 5m being down and making and how much we go down when they make, etc., but the simulations I have done suggest that bidding to 5m will be a winner against either 4H or 4Hx at the other table. Even when passing 4Hx is a nearly break even prospect, pulling to 5m wins over an IMP per board (whether they play 4H or 4Hx at the other table).

Of course there was no way for us to lead trumps, they're overwhelming favorites to have 10 trumps (leaving partner with none) and I have no entry to get in to lead my trumps. Diamonds 4-1 can hardly be a surprise.

[benlessard]

Pass is obvious, if its not obvious for you then your requirement for doubling 4H are clearly not high enough.

Quote

It is possible that I give the vulnerable opponents too much credit for their jump to 4H, but I'd guess (with the help of simulation) that they're making about 60% of the time.

You are mostly not giving enough credit to your partner 2nd double.

I dont like the 2nd double and I know its not fun to miss a double swing game.

I remeber having a similar hand and thought at my first time to bid that its likely that the 2nd round of bidding will be back at 4H and i would have a dreadful problem. So ive thought a bit about making a michaels or to overcall 1S then the blood came back to my brain and ive visualize what would happen if partner only got 3S.

The key to these hands is hoping partner got more than 3S because if hes doesnt you are going nowhere. Partner will rarely have enough values/shapes to make 5m a better deal than 4Hx. Knowing partner will stretch a lot to bid 4S with 4+♠ there is just no need to X 4H the 2nd round without a bunch of extras. Once you realized this you know that the 2nd double is a clear mistake.