Posted 2008-September-25, 17:47
I haven't tried to work out all the percentages.. not sure if I am capable of it without a calculator and am sure I couldn't do it in any realistic time line.
Win the first club in hand, play A and a heart, ruffing. Return via a diamond and lead another heart. This is where winning trick one may come into play.. if LHO has a doubleton heart, we don't want him successfully ruffing the 3rd round with his notional J.
Assuming nothing good has happened so far (and that rho didn't overruff a heart), cash the club K.
We are still in dummy at this point: cash the top spades, throwing a heart, and ruff a spade.
Then run the clubs, reducing, after the penultimate club, to a 3 card ending, with dummy holding J void KJ void and you void Q x x.
On your last trump, lho may already be screwed: imagine him with Q K Q void when you make this play. More often, if he has the diamond queen and either major, he has to stiff the diamond Queen.
You throw the spade from dummy, and now, if the diamond Queen is offside, you need rho to hold the heart K... if he holds the spade Q instead, he throws it away.
So then you lead the diamond and hope that you have counted out the hand...and it will almost certainly be a guess if the Q has not appeared...
This line is equivalent to Andrei's, which I read as I was proofreading this
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari