[Califdude]

Playing with a good pard, we pretty much clobbered our opponents, except for occasionally handing them some 5 or 6 IMP gifts by going down at 3NT. This was because we did what I call drifting into 3NT. Typical bidding sequence would be:

1S-p-2C-p-
2D-p-2NT-p
3NT

Dummy comes down and we have only 23-25 high-card pts. Opener has Axxxx in spades and has counted a point for the fifth spade. We lose three spade tricks, one diamond and one heart trick for down one.

Do expert players have any magic other than good bridge judgment to keep from bidding 3NT that have less than 50% chance of making? Is there a rule with some name like Rule of 3 Tens or Roth's Rule of Two Aces for this situation?

Thanks for replies, much appreciated as always.

[han]

Congratulations on your clobbering.

Of course you will want to get to some 3NT's that are worse than 50% at IMPs, especially when vulnerable. I am not sure what you are looking for, but I would give the following cheap advice:

- Evaluate the hands well. This will take time to learn, don't let cheesy algorithms make you think that it doesn't.
- Agree on how light you open and stick to it.
- Bid agressively to game and play them well. Don't automatically assume that going down in game means one of you made a mistake.

[pclayton]

You didn't mention system, but this is symptomatic of 2/1. Sometimes opener will have a shapely 10-11 and responder will have a misfitting 12. You climb into 3N on power and it has no shot. Keep the requirements for a 2/1 up to snuff and don't shade with a possible misfit. Bidding a forcing 1N does not preclude getting to game.

Stopping in a partial SAYC is a little easier, but its not designed for good game and slam bidding. I'm not sure why opener is attaching value to a 5th spade in a sequence like this.

As Han says, don't be afraid to bid these sub-par games anyway. The defense isn't always clear, and you'll frequently make when the defenders play sub-optimally.