[ewj]

Scoring: IMP

---

Auction goes 2D multi (weak two in either major or strong either minor), partner doubles which is 13-15 bal or any strong hand (19+ generally)...RHO XXs, which says bid your suit partner...and you bid 3NT. LHO is an agressive preemptor but a good player so not an idiot.

4 of spades spade lead to the K and your ace....8 tops, surely you can make this....Say you cash 3 rounds of diamonds...LHO pitches a spade on the 3rd round.

Do you:

a) Cash two top clubs and fall back on the heart hook if that fails

Cash two top hearts (not much happening here) and then hook the club through RHO.

c) Or exit in spades (4th leads so LHO almost certanly only has 4 left)

[effervesce]

Exiting with a spade gives up the chance of 3 overtricks (3 IMP if they make 3NT at the other table) which is not insubstantial. Exiting with a spade may not gain either.

Thus I will cash two top hearts, then hook RHO for the club queen.

[SlickRicky]

Hi,

Playing a spade would be very poor as the opponents have 5 tricks to cash if they can figure it out -- 4 spades and 1 diamond. They will have communication to do this since spades are 5-4.

As far as which AK to cash, I am willing to make the inference that RHO is not 4-4-4-1 since he chose not to bid at least 3H p/c. I am also willing to make the inference that LHO would not preempt with 5-4 in the majors. This makes hearts 3-3 so we have a full count, RHO is 4342, LHO is 5323. This means the HQ will never drop. The percentage play now is AK of clubs (40 %), and falling back on the heart finesse (50 %) for a 70% chance of success. This beats the alternative line, playing LHO for the CQ, which is 60 %.

What happens if I made faulty assumptions? Well if LHO can have 5422 for a multi then this line is still best.

Ricky

[ewj]

SlickRicky, on Sep 21 2008, 08:36 PM, said:

RHO is 4342, LHO is 5323.

In which case they could only cash 3 spades if you exited.

LHO does have 6 spades.

There is no real reason why either queen should definitely be with RHO. He has 3 spades and 4 diamonds, while LHO has 6 spades and 3 diamonds.

If you cash AK of clubs and the queen doesn't fall, then if it is Qxx onside then the hearts are 3-3 so the finesse may well be right...if Qxx offside then of course neither line works.

[ewj]

Incidently I hooked the club into LHO's QX and went two down, after cashing two top hearts.

[gnasher]

I exit in spades. If LHO cashes his winners, on the first two I throw a heart and ♣J from dummy, and two clubs from hand.

At this point I can still decide to try for ♥Qx and then the club finesse, throwing a diamond from dummy on the last spade. At the very least, this line saves an undertrick when LHO is 6223 with ♣Q. When he has finished cashing his spades, he has to exit with a heart, allowing me to play the jack.

Alternatively, I can try for a squeeze by throwing another heart from dummy on the last spade, and then guessing which rounded suit honours to cash.

[ewj]

Hehe, unfortunately RHO has KJx of spades and so the opps can take the spades and the 4th diamond!

[gnasher]

ewj, on Sep 22 2008, 12:10 PM, said:

Hehe, unfortunately RHO has KJx of spades and so the opps can take the spades and the 4th diamond!

I should have thought of that. With QJ9xxx LHO would probably have led the queen, so a spade exit is playing for specifically QJxxxx - K9x and some subsequent benefit. It doesn't seem such a good idea any more.

I rather admire LHO's opening. Did he have ♥Q, to make his hand the almost perfect Q97xxx Qxx xx Qx ?

[ewj]

gnasher, on Sep 22 2008, 06:42 AM, said:

ewj, on Sep 22 2008, 12:10 PM, said:

Hehe, unfortunately RHO has KJx of spades and so the opps can take the spades and the 4th diamond!

I should have thought of that. With QJ9xxx LHO would probably have led the queen, so a spade exit is playing for specifically QJxxxx - K9x and some subsequent benefit. It doesn't seem such a good idea any more.

I rather admire LHO's opening. Did he have ♥Q, to make his hand the almost perfect Q97xxx Qxx xx Qx ?

Yup

I said they were aggressive preemptors