[kfay]

Scoring: BAM

(3♥)-P-(3NT)-4♣
(P)-?

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Agree with initial pass? Now what?

[TimG]

4♥. If partner cues 4♠, 4N would now be RKC for clubs, right? If partner can't cue 4♠, I think I'd just shoot out 6♣.

[MFA]

Not bidding 3NT in the first round is much too deep for me.
Now I'm driving to slam. 4♥. 4NT might be taken as natural.

[655321]

Disagree with pass, 3NT seems normal.

If 4NT is keycard for clubs I bid it now, otherwise 4♥.

[pclayton]

Someone passed 3♥ with this? Wow.

4N isn't keycard in my methods. I cue 4♥. Pard should have at least AK-A for the overcall and should have AK-A-A for a 4♠ cue. Over 5♣ I just bid 6.

If we have a 12 card fit off the club King, thats too bad.

[han]

I agree with the initial pass.

[han]

Did a simulation. Don't know yet about the pass, too hard to simulate!

I forgot the second part: after passing 3H I'm driving to slam over 4C. I suspect partner will complain that I'm making her choose between defending 3H undoubled or playing in slam.

[kfay]

han, on Sep 16 2008, 10:58 PM, said:

Did a simulation. Don't know yet about the pass, too hard to simulate!

Maybe I'm tired but this made me crack up.

[NickRW]

Do I agree with the initial pass? No way. It is true that opener may have bid on bus tickets at these colours - but doesn't necessarily have rubbish. One has to credit LHO with some cards probably - and we have half the high cards in the deck. Just how little do we expect pard to re-open with at this level for god's sake?! Personally I don't expect a re-opening double if partner has 4-0-4-5 shape and some random 6 count - therefore a "trap pass" is just too deep for me.

However, given that I seem to have this sort of agreement, do I drive to slam now. Hard question. Probably.

Nick

[han]

I'd like to point out to all the initial bidders that it is BAM. If by bidding you convert a plus into a minus then that could be very costly. It seems to me that the relevant question is how often 3NT will make. My double dummy analys gave slightly below 50% (if I recall correctly it was 49% ) but there are many factors like:

- What is a NV 3H bid?

- With which hands will partner balance?

- Will the defense find the best lead? Will we find the best play? (the club suit could be interesting if we are missing the king and jack)

My guess is that this time the defense will more often go wrong in real life because the play will often be straightforward and the lead may be tough. So perhaps that means that 3NT makes more than 50% of the time in real life which means that pass is bad. Which everybody knew except for me, guess it shows.

[ceeb]

han, on Sep 17 2008, 11:54 AM, said:

I'd like to point out to all the initial bidders that it is BAM. If by bidding you convert a plus into a minus then that could be very costly. It seems to me that the relevant question is how often 3NT will make. My double dummy analys gave slightly below 50% (if I recall correctly it was 49% ) but there are many factors like:

- What is a NV 3H bid?

- With which hands will partner balance?

- Will the defense find the best lead? Will we find the best play? (the club suit could be interesting if we are missing the king and jack)

My guess is that this time the defense will more often go wrong in real life because the play will often be straightforward and the lead may be tough. So perhaps that means that 3NT makes more than 50% of the time in real life which means that pass is bad. Which everybody knew except for me, guess it shows.

Also, if 3NT makes nearly half the time that already suggests that bidding 3NT must have an edge over passing: It gains when 3NT makes, and also there must be at least a few percent when it gains even though 3NT doesn't make, e.g. the opponents take a phantom save.

A deeper analysis would admit that pass doesn't always end the auction. However when we hold 20hcp that may be a small point.

[johnu]

han, on Sep 17 2008, 11:54 AM, said:

I'd like to point out to all the initial bidders that it is BAM. If by bidding you convert a plus into a minus then that could be very costly. It seems to me that the relevant question is how often 3NT will make. My double dummy analys gave slightly below 50% (if I recall correctly it was 49% )

Is partner barred from bidding if you bid 3NT? If there's a better spot, won't they do something intelligent knowing you have at least a small fistful of points and something in hearts.

[han]

Yes, you both make good points in favor of bidding 3NT.