[FrancesHinden]

This time it's the opponents' lead problem, and they aren't married. Still, it's a similar question: what do you lead?

Scoring: IMP

P P 1♥ 3NT
P P 4♥ 4NT
P P P

---

You can double 4NT if you like. You are still on lead against it!

[655321]

♣Q

As before, a diamond is not sensible, and declarer is usually very well prepared for a heart lead. Ace of spades being prepared to switch is very committal, and declarer may have the spade king anyway. A low spade is possible.

But a club seems the best bet, hoping for partner to win the Ace, and switch to a spade through declarer's king.

[mikeh]

This is slightly different, because on the first hand, declarer could have been gambling with a hand that wouldn't always take 9 tricks once he gets on lead.

Here, declarer has at least 9 tricks more often than not... and either thinks he has a good chance of 10 or that 4♥ might have been making, and 4N is a cheaper save (and may make) than 5♦.

So I am sure he has the heart Ace... but partner bid 4♥ after opening 1♥.

I don't lead a spade.. I need too much for the spades to run for 4 or 5 tricks even if partner holds the King.

I don't lead a heart, because declarer is winning and running a lot of diamonds. Moreover, unless opener is Frances, and leader is Jeffrey, opener would expect a heart lead against 3N, and so might not have bid 4♥ *

I lead the club Q. This has the maximal number of ways to win, as best as I can tell.

partner may hold the AK, and it doesn't matter how many he has.. he'll find the spade switch if and necessary.

Partner may hold the A and a useful spade holding.

So I have two ways to win with clubs, while the other suits appear to require a more narrow range of holdings.

BTW, I think that xx KQJ10xxx void AKxx is more consistent with 4♥ than is, say, KQx KQJ10xxx void Kxx, where the club lead is probably fatal and the spade lead probably a big winner.


* intended as a joke, not as a valid argument.

[pclayton]

I like Mike's answer, but the short version is that declarer probably doesn't have the ♣AK.

[cherdano]

My reason for leading a club is more simple-minded than Mike's. RHO probably has 7 running diamonds together with aces and kings on the side. I would rather lead the suit where he has an ace than the suit where he has a king. I know he doesn't have the spade ace... S.th. like Kx AQ AKQxxxx Ax would seem typical.

[FrancesHinden]

cherdano, on Sep 16 2008, 06:02 PM, said:

S.th. like Kx AQ AKQxxxx Ax would seem typical.

I think that's a double of 4H, not a 4NT bid.

[FrancesHinden]

For anyone who still cares:

A heart lead takes it one off with no sweat
A spade lead lets it make
A diamond lead (!) takes it one off with little sweat
The CQ lead beats it, but the play will take a while.

Declarer has
Kx
A
eight solid
xx