[shevek]

whereagles, on Sep 10 2008, 07:29 AM, said:

shevek, on Sep 10 2008, 05:54 AM, said:

Seriously, why should East have 8 tricks?

Guess you mean 9 tricks...

East might have just 7 tricks to roll:

♠Ax  ♥Qx  ♦KJx  ♣AKQxxx

3NT is not a great bid but dummy might have some spade help or ♦A.
You rate to go 2 off on a spade lead, could make on a red suit lead, when dummy has ♦Q or ♥A

[FrancesHinden]

Of course one hand doesn't prove anything, but....

10 of spades lead = 1 off
Ace of diamonds lead = 2 off
Low diamond lead = 1 or 2 off
Club lead(!) = 1 or 2 off

Low heart = makes

Sadly my partner led a heart.

Declarer has
QJx
AQ
xx
AKQ10xx

[ochinko]

Truly amusing hand, and brilliantly argued by shevek, who also turned right Truly sad he lost the dogs.

Needless to say, perhaps, I would lead a heart too. Why can't I play like an expert when he IS right?

[FrancesHinden]

On the plus side, we are still married.
Perhaps this was considered compensation for the hand (thankfully not on vugraph) when I converted +100 into -500.

[jallerton]

han, on Sep 9 2008, 01:32 PM, said:

I thought we had the heart 10 and was going to say clear heart lead. Without the 10 it is much less clear. Declarer is very likely to have 7 running clubs and a major suit ace. A diamond is only right if we can take all four of the top, so we would need partner to hold at least two diamond honors including the king. In hearts we need partner to hold almost as much for it to be the winning lead but if it is wrong (for example if partner has the queen but nothing else) then we may still have time to find the winning switch.

So I'm still leading a heart.

In my view, this is the most well-reasoned post and quite similar to the thoughts of the opening leader at the table. If declarer has 7 running clubs and both major suit aces then the contract is cold anyway (except in the unlikely event that 5 diamonds tricks are cashing), so assume he doesn't have that.

The bidding suggests that declarer has a spade stop in addition to running clubs. If he has a spade tenace over partner then a spade lead will often set up declarer's 9th trick.

The poor quality of the heart pips may well not matter because the defence will often only need one or two heart tricks. Of more relevance is the fact that the 3NT bidder rates to be relatively short in hearts and correspondingly less likely to have both the ace and queen in the suit.

The opening leader's partner has written a hand simulation program. The program was run assuming partner to have a 1♠ opener and declarer to have 7 clubs to the AK and a spade stop.

The results were as follows:

Spade works 15 times
Heart works 26 times
Low diamond works 20 times
Ace of diamonds works 23 times
Club works 14 times.

[In fact those cases include 11 where any lead works and a further 12 where no lead works. There are 13 cases where a heart lead works and a spade doesn't, but only 2 where the converse is true.]

So if your spouse's simulation program demonstrates that your opening lead was correct in theory, then that is certainly not grounds for divorce!

[nige1]

nige1, on Sep 10 2008, 12:21 PM, said:

I watched Frances and Jeffrey star in this deal, from the EBU Premier League, on viewgraph, so I know the winning action.

Walddk, on Sep 10 2008, 07:18 AM, said:

You must have been distracted while you were watching, because they did not star in this deal. I looked it up a few minutes ago.

Maybe not

Dictionary said:

Star - act in leading role

[Echognome]

I hope the real ploy was to get Jeffrey to start contributing to these threads regularly. That would be worth something.

[bid_em_up]

jallerton, on Sep 12 2008, 09:55 AM, said:

The opening leader's partner has written a hand simulation program.  The program was run assuming partner to have a 1♠ opener and declarer to have 7 clubs to the AK and a spade stop.

The results were as follows:

Spade works 15 times
Heart works 26 times
Low diamond works 20 times
Ace of diamonds works 23 times
Club works 14 times.

[In fact those cases include 11 where any lead works and a further 12 where no lead works.  There are 13 cases where a heart lead works and a spade doesn't, but only 2 where the converse is true.]

So if your spouse's simulation program demonstrates that your opening lead was correct in theory, then that is certainly not grounds for divorce!

The problem with this analysis is that it probably does not include those cases where the A♦ followed by any switch still beats the contract (maybe it does, I don't know).

If it does not include these cases, then the A♦ lead (winning whenever diamonds were right), or the A♦ followed by any switch that still beats the contract, will make the A♦ the superior lead, imo.

[han]

Echognome, on Sep 12 2008, 02:16 PM, said:

I hope the real ploy was to get Jeffrey to start contributing to these threads regularly. That would be worth something.

Yep, certainly a very good start of his very first post. Keep it up.

[Walddk]

han, on Sep 12 2008, 11:30 PM, said:

Echognome, on Sep 12 2008, 02:16 PM, said:

I hope the real ploy was to get Jeffrey to start contributing to these threads regularly.  That would be worth something.

Yep, certainly a very good start of his very first post. Keep it up.

No, he has withdrawn after they gave him 6543 543 543 543. Not fair towards a newbie!

Roland

[FrancesHinden]

bid_em_up, on Sep 12 2008, 09:21 PM, said:

jallerton, on Sep 12 2008, 09:55 AM, said:

The opening leader's partner has written a hand simulation program.  The program was run assuming partner to have a 1♠ opener and declarer to have 7 clubs to the AK and a spade stop.

The results were as follows:

Spade works 15 times
Heart works 26 times
Low diamond works 20 times
Ace of diamonds works 23 times
Club works 14 times.

[In fact those cases include 11 where any lead works and a further 12 where no lead works.  There are 13 cases where a heart lead works and a spade doesn't, but only 2 where the converse is true.]

So if your spouse's simulation program demonstrates that your opening lead was correct in theory, then that is certainly not grounds for divorce!

The problem with this analysis is that it probably does not include those cases where the A♦ followed by any switch still beats the contract (maybe it does, I don't know).

If it does not include these cases, then the A♦ lead (winning whenever diamonds were right), or the A♦ followed by any switch that still beats the contract, will make the A♦ the superior lead, imo.

The opening leader's spouse's partner says that he included ace-of-diamonds-and-switch in these i.e. there are 20 hands where leading any diamond is right, and another three where the ace in particular gains either because you can switch or because it drops the singleton king.