[awm]

You hold ♠95 ♥AK ♦A75432 ♣AK7

All vulnerable, IMPs, close match. LHO opens 1♠ and RHO raises to 3♠ (preemptive). Now what?

[jdonn]

So many of these lately lol. Ok I'll risk 4♦, hoping they then bid 4♠ so I can crackity crack.

[andy_h]

4D, least of all evils

[ArcLight]

jdonn, on Sep 8 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

So many of these lately lol. Ok I'll risk 4♦, hoping they then bid 4♠ so I can crackity crack.

Is that likely to happen?

I would think opener will pass, or penalty double your 4♦.

Is 4♦ a 2 way bid? As a save over 3♠, and it may make?

I dont think 3♠ is making.
4♦ might not make either, though 5♦ can make if pard has a few dimes to the King and heart/club Queen.

Since we are all vulnerable I'll pass and take the +100, rather than +130 (4D making) and miss out on game or -200 or -500.

[jdonn]

ArcLight, on Sep 8 2008, 09:11 AM, said:

jdonn, on Sep 8 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

So many of these lately lol. Ok I'll risk 4♦, hoping they then bid 4♠ so I can crackity crack.

Is that likely to happen?

I would think opener will pass, or penalty double your 4♦.

Is 4♦ a 2 way bid? As a save over 3♠, and it may make?

I dont think 3♠ is making.
4♦ might not make either, though 5♦ can make if pard has a few dimes to the King and heart/club Queen.

Since we are all vulnerable I'll pass and take the +100, rather than +130 (4D making) and miss out on game or -200 or -500.

We could get doubled if diamonds don't break, that's why I pointed out bidding was taking a risk. But short of that opener is not doubling, he is off AK A AK so has not much outside of spades.

I don't think you have given enough weight to the chance partner has a singleton spade. And I don't think it's at all unlikely opener bids 4♠. Maybe he has six spades and one diamond, and bids 4♠ in front of his partner who could have cracked us off...

[mikeh]

I don't understand pass: it is playing 'scared bridge'.

We can see an easy route to +100 by passing, and we may even get +200 if partner can chip in. Of course, when he does, that increases the chances of our making 5♦ (except when his contribution is a stiff diamond ).

And, there will be hands on which he can't raise 4♦ even when game makes: xx Qxx Kxx xxxxx, with everything breaking well.

But, there will be a non-trivial set of hands on which he has a stiff spade and then he really doesn't need much beyond some help in diamonds, and that is the type of hand on which he can raise.

BTW, for those who bid here and pass on the concurrent thread where partner butted in with 3♥ over [1♠] p [2♠], do you not see some inconsistencies? Yes, the auctions are different, but there are some basic similarities: is the 4th seat dangerous overcall primarily an attempt to compete or is it a serious try for game? If it is primarily competitive, then the upside to the overcall, on this hand, is severely diminished.

I prefer, at imps, to have such calls deliver significant playing strength and hence invite game opposite hands that might pass were the call to be competitive.

And I also appreciate that this is not always going to be the most effective approach: what if one held xx Ax AKxxxxx xx? Wouldn't one want to bid 4♦?

The answer is yes, and I willpay to getting overboard when partner raises my competitive call too high... the consolation is that the stretched bid will always be on good trump, and the opps won't be able to tell which type of hand I am on (unless they hold an improbable trump stack) and so I won't get doubled as often, on the competitive hands, as perhaps I should be.

[ArcLight]

jdonn, on Sep 8 2008, 10:53 AM, said:

We could get doubled if diamonds don't break, that's why I pointed out bidding was taking a risk. But short of that opener is not doubling, he is off AK A AK so has not much outside of spades.

I don't think you have given enough weight to the chance partner has a singleton spade. And I don't think it's at all unlikely opener bids 4♠. Maybe he has six spades and one diamond, and bids 4♠ in front of his partner who could have cracked us off...

Josh,
I assume, and I could be wrong, that RHO has 4 spades for the 3♠ bid.
Also, I assume that opener has 5♠ rather than 6 - only because 5 is a fair amount more likley than 6. I don't think it that likely pard has a stiff spade.
I guess the chances are around 20% (opener has 5 spades vs opener has 6 spades)

Assuming RHO has 5 HCP, that doesn't leave much for pard (5 HCP?)

I just think its unlikley that 4D will make.
Maybe this is too timid.
I admit I am not an expert.
It just seems like the correct percentage play.

Maybe MikeH is right and pass is the losing action over a large number of hands.

-----------------------------------
I don't understand pass: it is playing 'scared bridge'.

We can see an easy route to +100 by passing, and we may even get +200 if partner can chip in. Of course, when he does, that increases the chances of our making 5♦ (except when his contribution is a stiff diamond ).

And, there will be hands on which he can't raise 4♦ even when game makes: xx Qxx Kxx xxxxx, with everything breaking well.

[sathyab]

jdonn, on Sep 8 2008, 10:53 AM, said:

ArcLight, on Sep 8 2008, 09:11 AM, said:

jdonn, on Sep 8 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

So many of these lately lol. Ok I'll risk 4♦, hoping they then bid 4♠ so I can crackity crack.

Is that likely to happen?

I would think opener will pass, or penalty double your 4♦.

Is 4♦ a 2 way bid? As a save over 3♠, and it may make?

I dont think 3♠ is making.
4♦ might not make either, though 5♦ can make if pard has a few dimes to the King and heart/club Queen.

Since we are all vulnerable I'll pass and take the +100, rather than +130 (4D making) and miss out on game or -200 or -500.

We could get doubled if diamonds don't break, that's why I pointed out bidding was taking a risk. But short of that opener is not doubling, he is off AK A AK so has not much outside of spades.

I don't think you have given enough weight to the chance partner has a singleton spade. And I don't think it's at all unlikely opener bids 4♠. Maybe he has six spades and one diamond, and bids 4♠ in front of his partner who could have cracked us off...

They're missing too many high cards to bid 4♠ seriously, unless they thought they were saving against 5♦ or to make it harder for you find your heart fit. If it goes all pass and you find partner with 2 spades chances are you are going down when they would have. Pre-emptive raises were designed specifically for these kinds of hands in the fourth seat. Let's hope your teammates are doing unto your counterparts what your opponents are doing to you.

[mikeh]

I know this didn't generate a lot of discussion, but what happened?

[Apollo81]

I would bid 4♦. The only other reasonable action IMO is double then 4♦, and that is only reasonable if you don't play ELC.

[awm]

Scoring: IMP

---

At one table:

1♠ - P - 3♠ - 4♦ - All Pass. Two down, -200 for N/S.

At the other table:

1♠ - P - 1NT(F) - 2♦ - X (Pen) - P - 2♠ - All Pass. One down, +100 for N/S.

[mike777]

As nonexpert was not:


1s=p=3s=x a choice?

btw if you played recent in Irvine...wd.

[jdonn]

Yeah bidding was sure as heck going to be bad if partner had a singleton diamond. Very good hand for the preemptive raise.

[gwnn]

mike777, on Sep 10 2008, 06:41 AM, said:

As nonexpert was not:


1s=p=3s=x a choice?

no because you only have 2 hearts and because you don't have anything resembling a t/o double in general. Partner will bid 4♥ and you'll do what? 5♦?