[gwnn]

Scoring: MP

---

bidding went:

p-1♠-p-2♦
p-2♥-p-3♣*
p-3NT-p-4♣
p-4♦-p-6♦
p-p-p

1♠ was 11-15, 2♦ was GF. Do you agree with the bidding? Oh well, West leads the ♠K. Opps are BBO randoms who have displayed above average competence.

[helene_t]

Agree with the bidding. I just try to cash the minors for at most one loser.

[CSGibson]

ruff a spade, Ace of diamonds, Ace of clubs and club to king, ruffing a club in dummy if all have followed seems simplest. You aren't getting a top if 6N (clubs 3-3 and diamonds 3-2), because people will be there, and not everyone will get to 6 of a minor, so I would play this to make, not for the overtrick, with the possibility of making the overtrick if everything splits anyway.

edit: there are probably better lines that cater towards a 3 suit squeeze if clubs are 5-1. I didn't think too deeply about the line of play, my main point was to say that you should play to make, not for the overtrick, because 6 of a minor is harder for some people to get to, and 6 of a minor won't matchpoint well with or without an overtrick if 6N makes, since some people will try that contract.

[dburn]

CSGibson, on Aug 30 2008, 10:08 AM, said:

You aren't getting a top if 6N (clubs 3-3 and diamonds 3-2)

If diamonds are 3-2, 6NT will make regardless of the club division (one spade, two hearts, six diamonds, three clubs). But worrying about whether or not 6NT will make is folly - if you score a bottom in 6♦ because the rest of the field makes 6NT, you should find an easier event to play in next time. Meanwhile, you should take your best shot at making 6♦, which is the one suggested by CSGibson.

Perhaps the same hand will have a doubleton club and four diamonds to the jack, in which case you will score a top in the tough event where everyone else was in 6NT. Perhaps diamonds will be 3-2 and clubs 5-1, in which case you will go down in 6♦ while the good pairs your way make 6NT and the bad pairs your way make 6♦ by drawing trumps and cashing winners. If this sort of thing bothers you, perhaps you should have taken up chess.

[CSGibson]

dburn, on Aug 30 2008, 05:17 PM, said:

CSGibson, on Aug 30 2008, 10:08 AM, said:

You aren't getting a top if 6N (clubs 3-3 and diamonds 3-2)

If diamonds are 3-2, 6NT will make regardless of the club division (one spade, two hearts, six diamonds, three clubs).

oops, thanks for pointing that out, wasn't thinking clearly.

[Rossoneri]

Bidding seems fine enough.

[kgr]

dburn, on Aug 31 2008, 02:17 AM, said:

Meanwhile, you should take your best shot at making 6♦, which is the one suggested by CSGibson.

Perhaps the same hand will have a doubleton club and four diamonds to the jack, in which case you will score a top in the tough event where everyone else was in 6NT. Perhaps diamonds will be 3-2 and clubs 5-1, in which case you will go down in 6♦ while the good pairs your way make 6NT and the bad pairs your way make 6♦ by drawing trumps and cashing winners. If this sort of thing bothers you, perhaps you should have taken up chess.

Q:
You ruff a club because probability of having one hand with:
♦4 and ♣1+ is higher then
singleton ♣?
How do you estimate these probabilites?

[gnasher]

kgr, on Aug 31 2008, 11:26 AM, said:

You ruff a club because probability of having one hand with:
♦4 and ♣1+ is higher then
singleton ♣?
How do you estimate these probabilites?

On this hand it's easy, because playing clubs before drawing trumps loses only to five clubs with East. When West has five clubs, East can ruff only a loser. A priori:

clubs 1=5 is 7%
diamonds 3-2 either way is 68%

clubs 4-2 either way is 48%
diamonds 4-1 either way is 28%

If these probabilities were independent, diamonds 4-1 and clubs 4-2 would be more than twice as likely as clubs 1=5 and diamonds 3-2. An more accurate calculation, taking account of the effect of one break upon another, wouldn't affect these figures enough to matter.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

the bidding was nice, because of 3NT
reponder virtually knows the Ace, ...
it took me some time, but yes.

Of course, if you know the Ace, and you
are able to find out that partner has the
the King of hearts or the Ace of spades,
you may have 7 on, so you have tried
looking those cards, ... of course getting
clubs to run may require clubs 3-3, hence
the grand may not be a good one.

No comments about the play from me.

With kind regards
Marlowe