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My best hand ever? What to bid

#1 User is offline   Mosene 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 13:47

Your are dealt:

-X
- AKJXX
-
AKQJ109X

The bidding has gone

P - 1SP - ??

What do you bid and why? Does it matter how good the opponents are? If so, how would your bidding change based on the skill of the opponents?
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#2 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 13:49

I would just bid 6. I think it's really unlikely we will want to play in or that we can find out if partner has a useful card (Q or xx along with 3 trumps).
"Half the people you know are below average." - Steven Wright
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#3 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 13:57

Hi,

2C followed by 4H, or 5C, if 4S comes back.

With kind regards
Marlowe

PS: Did not realize, how good the hand was,
... well I stick with the above plan anyway.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#4 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 14:22

6. No need not to play the best hand in my life below slam.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
      George Carlin
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#5 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 14:23

I think 6 is pretty premature. We are probably off a cashing spade, and I have no idea what's going on in the heart suit. On a bad day, 5 won't even make, although I'm not selling out below that.

I'm starting with 2. I may be faced with a guess later, but it will be a more informed guess.

I don't think the strength if the opponents matters much, but the vulnerability might matter a lot.
"Phil" on BBO
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#6 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-August-25, 14:39

Prefer 6C to make them guess as much as possible. I think going slower will give them a lot more information (about whether they can/should save) than it will give me. Agree that the vulnerability could be a factor, and also I think the strength of the opps could be a factor (walking the dog is a lot more attractive against weak players, but I still wouldn't do it).
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#7 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 14:48

Curious what people think about the evaluation of this hand versus the Mo Mo Monster hand.
"Phil" on BBO
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#8 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-August-25, 14:50

pclayton, on Aug 25 2008, 03:48 PM, said:

Curious what people think about the evaluation of this hand versus the Mo Mo Monster hand.

That hand is off 2 aces plus a little so is clearly a weaker hand?
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#9 User is offline   jeffford76 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 15:01

Unless this hand came up twice in the last couple days, it's regional pairs, red against white.

I bid 6C when I held it.
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#10 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 15:10

Jlall, on Aug 25 2008, 12:50 PM, said:

pclayton, on Aug 25 2008, 03:48 PM, said:

Curious what people think about the evaluation of this hand versus the Mo Mo Monster hand.

That hand is off 2 aces plus a little so is clearly a weaker hand?

Yeah, but we have some slower losers with this one - plus we have a one bid in front of us instead of a preempt, so personally I think its a closer than that.
"Phil" on BBO
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#11 User is offline   Mosene 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 15:39

"Unless this hand came up twice in the last couple days, it's regional pairs, red against white.

I bid 6C when I held it. "

Seattle, WA (Lynnwood) regional. I bid 6 Clubs also - LHO thought but did not double or bid again. I thought against strong opponents a bid like that might induce a good sacrifice on their part (both 6 diamonds and 6 spades are a good sacrifice).

Partner had something like:

XX
QXXXX
XXXXX
XX

Of course, 6 hearts or 6 clubs rolls (LHO switched to a heart at trick to, so I had to hold my breath for a second, but no ruff.).
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#12 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 15:46

Mosene, on Aug 25 2008, 01:39 PM, said:

"Unless this hand came up twice in the last couple days, it's regional pairs, red against white.

I bid 6C when I held it. "

Seattle, WA (Lynnwood) regional. I bid 6 Clubs also - LHO thought but did not double or bid again. I thought against strong opponents a bid like that might induce a good sacrifice on their part (both 6 diamonds and 6 spades are a good sacrifice).

Partner had something like:

XX
QXXXX
XXXXX
XX

Of course, 6 hearts or 6 clubs rolls (LHO switched to a heart at trick to, so I had to hold my breath for a second, but no ruff.).

Nice Q.

Looks like 6 is supercheap. They better lead right against 7.
"Phil" on BBO
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#13 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-August-25, 15:48

Mosene, on Aug 25 2008, 04:39 PM, said:

"Unless this hand came up twice in the last couple days, it's regional pairs, red against white.

I bid 6C when I held it. "

Seattle, WA (Lynnwood) regional.  I bid 6 Clubs also - LHO thought but did not double or bid again.  I thought against strong opponents a bid like that might induce a good sacrifice on their part (both 6 diamonds and 6 spades are a good sacrifice). 

Partner had something like:

XX
QXXXX
XXXXX
XX

Of course, 6 hearts or 6 clubs rolls (LHO switched to a heart at trick to, so I had to hold my breath for a second, but no ruff.).

Bidding 6C should make it LESS likely the opponents will find a good sacrifice rather than more likely in an ideal world. For instance if you bid 2S, LHO can raise spades, and RHO can use that info to save, or RHO can bid diamonds suggesting a second suit, or LHO can show D+S at some point or... basically when they have more information they should make more accurate decisions. The only way this would not be true is if you are exploitable in some manner, for instance using a strategy where you bid 6C only when you have 12 sure tricks. In reality a jump to 6C is very rarely 12 sure tricks; if you had that you would be trying to reach 7 opposite the missing trick. Usually a jump to 6C is gambling on something, as here where you are gambling on the heart suit. They really don't know what you are doing, and you have limited their abilities to exchange information as well as limited the information you've given about your own hand, and that is the best you can do regarding whether or not they make the right decision to save.
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#14 User is offline   jeffford76 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 16:41

jeffford76, on Aug 25 2008, 04:01 PM, said:

Unless this hand came up twice in the last couple days, it's regional pairs, red against white.

I bid 6C when I held it.

Over my 6C my opponent (who knows me) paused for a while, then said, "I guess I believe you," and bid 6S. I still think that's the best way not to get saved against, though. Apparently I still have more work to do convincing people I'm a maniac to avoid this problem. :(

One of the amusing ways to get above average on the board was to play 5H after a revealing auction since reasonable opponents were afraid of pushing you to the slam.
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#15 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 17:39

Phil will you be happy when pard will just pass and pass and you'll have to pass out 5?
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
      George Carlin
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#16 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 17:53

gwnn, on Aug 25 2008, 03:39 PM, said:

Phil will you be happy when pard will just pass and pass and you'll have to pass out 5?

Possibly.

Certainly I'll know more, but there is a lot to be said for just bidding slam.

By the way, I think that your w/r opponents will frequently save over a direct 6.
"Phil" on BBO
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#17 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 18:50

At MPs I am going to offer hearts through 2 then 6.

At IMPs, I am just going to blast 6.
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#18 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2008-August-25, 19:50

2S. The vulnerability is not given, but I agree with Phil that the slow route is actually less likely to induce a sacrifice. Of course this depends on the quality of the opps, but I have found that a direct bid is usually more likely to induce a sac.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#19 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2008-August-26, 07:14

At matchpoints, I don't really care whether the opponents will often guess to save over 6, or often guess to defend, because I myself don't know whether 6 is making or not. The best I can do is to make sure their guess is as uninformed as possible.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#20 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2008-August-26, 08:11

I think 6 has a lot more than 50% chance. Q could drop, p could have either Q or A, p could ruff a heart, they could lead a giving me a discard.

6 it is.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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