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6s by south, LHO lead low heart, standard leads.
Scoring: IMP
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best line ?
#1
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Posted 2008-August-21, 08:00
one interesting hand come up at bbo. would you find best line ?
6s by south, LHO lead low heart, standard leads.
6s by south, LHO lead low heart, standard leads.
SHAN
#2
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Posted 2008-August-21, 08:28
hmmm....
Looks straight foward, combine chances. First save your ♠2.
The ♦ hook is 50%, two club hooks is 75%. You can add to the 75% whatever the odds of catching the singleton, doubleton, or tripleton of king of diamonds if you can manage your dummy entries to 1-pull trumps, 2-to be able to hook clubs twice, and 3-see how well you can drop the diamond king.
My play is to win the ♥A, cash ♠A ,,, assume here only one followed. ♦A, ruff ♦ very high, spade to the JACK (not the spade 2), ruff a diamond. IF the king has not fallen, ruff my last heart, and take a club finessee. When this loses, if WEST had only 3 diamonds, he is forced to give me a ruff and sluff. If he had 4diamond, I ruff a diamond (again saving my 2), spade 2 to dummy for a second club finesse...
I make anytime King or queen of clubs is with EAST
Anytime diamond King falls in three rounds
Anytime WEST has three or less diamonds
The odds of catching show King, or LHO with exactly any three is 37%. So you get 1/4 of the 37% added to your chance to make (also possibility of WEST discarding a diamond from four small on second round of trumps after you have ruffed a diamond). That is about 9 additional percent without them misplaying, for a total of nearly 85%.
Looks straight foward, combine chances. First save your ♠2.
The ♦ hook is 50%, two club hooks is 75%. You can add to the 75% whatever the odds of catching the singleton, doubleton, or tripleton of king of diamonds if you can manage your dummy entries to 1-pull trumps, 2-to be able to hook clubs twice, and 3-see how well you can drop the diamond king.
My play is to win the ♥A, cash ♠A ,,, assume here only one followed. ♦A, ruff ♦ very high, spade to the JACK (not the spade 2), ruff a diamond. IF the king has not fallen, ruff my last heart, and take a club finessee. When this loses, if WEST had only 3 diamonds, he is forced to give me a ruff and sluff. If he had 4diamond, I ruff a diamond (again saving my 2), spade 2 to dummy for a second club finesse...
I make anytime King or queen of clubs is with EAST
Anytime diamond King falls in three rounds
Anytime WEST has three or less diamonds
The odds of catching show King, or LHO with exactly any three is 37%. So you get 1/4 of the 37% added to your chance to make (also possibility of WEST discarding a diamond from four small on second round of trumps after you have ruffed a diamond). That is about 9 additional percent without them misplaying, for a total of nearly 85%.
--Ben--
#3
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Posted 2008-August-21, 08:35
Draw trump while eliminating the red suits and then finesse ♣s.
The difference between theory and practice is that in theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice, there is.
#4
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Posted 2008-August-21, 09:06
inquiry, on Aug 21 2008, 06:28 AM, said:
hmmm....
Looks straight foward, combine chances. First save your ♠2.
The ♦ hook is 50%, two club hooks is 75%. You can add to the 75% whatever the odds of catching the singleton, doubleton, or tripleton of king of diamonds if you can manage your dummy entries to 1-pull trumps, 2-to be able to hook clubs twice, and 3-see how well you can drop the diamond king.
My play is to win the ♥A, cash ♠A ,,, assume here only one followed. ♦A, ruff ♦ very high, spade to the JACK (not the spade 2), ruff a diamond. IF the king has not fallen, ruff my last heart, and take a club finessee. When this loses, if WEST had only 3 diamonds, he is forced to give me a ruff and sluff. If he had 4diamond, I ruff a diamond (again saving my 2), spade 2 to dummy for a second club finesse...
I make anytime King or queen of clubs is with EAST
Anytime diamond King falls in three rounds
Anytime WEST has three or less diamonds
The odds of catching show King, or LHO with exactly any three is 37%. So you get 1/4 of the 37% added to your chance to make (also possibility of WEST discarding a diamond from four small on second round of trumps after you have ruffed a diamond). That is about 9 additional percent without them misplaying, for a total of nearly 85%.
Looks straight foward, combine chances. First save your ♠2.
The ♦ hook is 50%, two club hooks is 75%. You can add to the 75% whatever the odds of catching the singleton, doubleton, or tripleton of king of diamonds if you can manage your dummy entries to 1-pull trumps, 2-to be able to hook clubs twice, and 3-see how well you can drop the diamond king.
My play is to win the ♥A, cash ♠A ,,, assume here only one followed. ♦A, ruff ♦ very high, spade to the JACK (not the spade 2), ruff a diamond. IF the king has not fallen, ruff my last heart, and take a club finessee. When this loses, if WEST had only 3 diamonds, he is forced to give me a ruff and sluff. If he had 4diamond, I ruff a diamond (again saving my 2), spade 2 to dummy for a second club finesse...
I make anytime King or queen of clubs is with EAST
Anytime diamond King falls in three rounds
Anytime WEST has three or less diamonds
The odds of catching show King, or LHO with exactly any three is 37%. So you get 1/4 of the 37% added to your chance to make (also possibility of WEST discarding a diamond from four small on second round of trumps after you have ruffed a diamond). That is about 9 additional percent without them misplaying, for a total of nearly 85%.
Not bad, but I think you do better if you don't ruff a 3rd diamond. The odds of West having the ♦K are better than K/Kx/Kxx in either hand.
"Phil" on BBO
#5
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Posted 2008-August-21, 09:14
brianshark, on Aug 21 2008, 09:35 AM, said:
Draw trump while eliminating the red suits and then finesse ♣s.
As I noted, in my response, I assume trumps are 2-0. If so, you will be one entry short to pull trumps eliminate the red suits and to effectively run the throw in (the fellow who wins the club, can exit a heart...).
Your suggest line will work, if trumps are 1-1.
For example... win heart ace
Diamond ACE
Ruff Diamond with ACE
spade 9 to JACK someone show out (1 dummy trump gone)
Ruff Diamond with KING
SPADE Queen (2 dummy trump gone)
Heart ruff (3 dummy trump gone)
Ruff diamond
Now you are in your hand with only one trump left in dummy, if you lead the spade 2 to dummy and to take the club hook they will have a safe exit.
However, if trumps are 1-1, this line does work...
HEART ACE
Diamond ACE
DIAMOND RUFF BIG
MIDDLE trump to jack (both follow)
Diamond ruff
heart ruff
Last diamond ruff
Spade two to dummy
club hook endplay is 100%
--Ben--
#6
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Posted 2008-August-21, 09:15
pclayton, on Aug 21 2008, 10:06 AM, said:
inquiry, on Aug 21 2008, 06:28 AM, said:
hmmm....
Looks straight foward, combine chances. First save your ♠2.
The ♦ hook is 50%, two club hooks is 75%. You can add to the 75% whatever the odds of catching the singleton, doubleton, or tripleton of king of diamonds if you can manage your dummy entries to 1-pull trumps, 2-to be able to hook clubs twice, and 3-see how well you can drop the diamond king.
My play is to win the ♥A, cash ♠A ,,, assume here only one followed. ♦A, ruff ♦ very high, spade to the JACK (not the spade 2), ruff a diamond. IF the king has not fallen, ruff my last heart, and take a club finessee. When this loses, if WEST had only 3 diamonds, he is forced to give me a ruff and sluff. If he had 4diamond, I ruff a diamond (again saving my 2), spade 2 to dummy for a second club finesse...
I make anytime King or queen of clubs is with EAST
Anytime diamond King falls in three rounds
Anytime WEST has three or less diamonds
The odds of catching show King, or LHO with exactly any three is 37%. So you get 1/4 of the 37% added to your chance to make (also possibility of WEST discarding a diamond from four small on second round of trumps after you have ruffed a diamond). That is about 9 additional percent without them misplaying, for a total of nearly 85%.
Looks straight foward, combine chances. First save your ♠2.
The ♦ hook is 50%, two club hooks is 75%. You can add to the 75% whatever the odds of catching the singleton, doubleton, or tripleton of king of diamonds if you can manage your dummy entries to 1-pull trumps, 2-to be able to hook clubs twice, and 3-see how well you can drop the diamond king.
My play is to win the ♥A, cash ♠A ,,, assume here only one followed. ♦A, ruff ♦ very high, spade to the JACK (not the spade 2), ruff a diamond. IF the king has not fallen, ruff my last heart, and take a club finessee. When this loses, if WEST had only 3 diamonds, he is forced to give me a ruff and sluff. If he had 4diamond, I ruff a diamond (again saving my 2), spade 2 to dummy for a second club finesse...
I make anytime King or queen of clubs is with EAST
Anytime diamond King falls in three rounds
Anytime WEST has three or less diamonds
The odds of catching show King, or LHO with exactly any three is 37%. So you get 1/4 of the 37% added to your chance to make (also possibility of WEST discarding a diamond from four small on second round of trumps after you have ruffed a diamond). That is about 9 additional percent without them misplaying, for a total of nearly 85%.
Not bad, but I think you do better if you don't ruff a 3rd diamond. The odds of West having the ♦K are better than K/Kx/Kxx in either hand.
but you also gain if WEST had xxx of diamonds.... in addition to Kxx...
--Ben--
#7
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Posted 2008-August-21, 09:50
inquiry, on Aug 21 2008, 07:15 AM, said:
pclayton, on Aug 21 2008, 10:06 AM, said:
inquiry, on Aug 21 2008, 06:28 AM, said:
hmmm....
Looks straight foward, combine chances. First save your ♠2.
The ♦ hook is 50%, two club hooks is 75%. You can add to the 75% whatever the odds of catching the singleton, doubleton, or tripleton of king of diamonds if you can manage your dummy entries to 1-pull trumps, 2-to be able to hook clubs twice, and 3-see how well you can drop the diamond king.
My play is to win the ♥A, cash ♠A ,,, assume here only one followed. ♦A, ruff ♦ very high, spade to the JACK (not the spade 2), ruff a diamond. IF the king has not fallen, ruff my last heart, and take a club finessee. When this loses, if WEST had only 3 diamonds, he is forced to give me a ruff and sluff. If he had 4diamond, I ruff a diamond (again saving my 2), spade 2 to dummy for a second club finesse...
I make anytime King or queen of clubs is with EAST
Anytime diamond King falls in three rounds
Anytime WEST has three or less diamonds
The odds of catching show King, or LHO with exactly any three is 37%. So you get 1/4 of the 37% added to your chance to make (also possibility of WEST discarding a diamond from four small on second round of trumps after you have ruffed a diamond). That is about 9 additional percent without them misplaying, for a total of nearly 85%.
Looks straight foward, combine chances. First save your ♠2.
The ♦ hook is 50%, two club hooks is 75%. You can add to the 75% whatever the odds of catching the singleton, doubleton, or tripleton of king of diamonds if you can manage your dummy entries to 1-pull trumps, 2-to be able to hook clubs twice, and 3-see how well you can drop the diamond king.
My play is to win the ♥A, cash ♠A ,,, assume here only one followed. ♦A, ruff ♦ very high, spade to the JACK (not the spade 2), ruff a diamond. IF the king has not fallen, ruff my last heart, and take a club finessee. When this loses, if WEST had only 3 diamonds, he is forced to give me a ruff and sluff. If he had 4diamond, I ruff a diamond (again saving my 2), spade 2 to dummy for a second club finesse...
I make anytime King or queen of clubs is with EAST
Anytime diamond King falls in three rounds
Anytime WEST has three or less diamonds
The odds of catching show King, or LHO with exactly any three is 37%. So you get 1/4 of the 37% added to your chance to make (also possibility of WEST discarding a diamond from four small on second round of trumps after you have ruffed a diamond). That is about 9 additional percent without them misplaying, for a total of nearly 85%.
Not bad, but I think you do better if you don't ruff a 3rd diamond. The odds of West having the ♦K are better than K/Kx/Kxx in either hand.
but you also gain if WEST had xxx of diamonds.... in addition to Kxx...
For mine I get:
Double club finesse: 75%
+ West having ♦K or ♦ K / Kx in East or West having v / x / xx.
Pavlicek has this working 60.08% versus 44.79% for yours. This is on top of the 75% for the double club hook. So I'm getting just over 90%.
"Phil" on BBO
#8
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Posted 2008-August-21, 13:30
If trumps are 1-1 we have a safety play as Ben explained. If trumps are 2-2, there are 2 lines:
-Ben's line, with ruffing 2 round of ♦ before playing ♣ finesse
-Phil'l line with ruffing one round of ♦ before playing ♣ finesse
Except the double finesse working (75%), the first line will win when:
-♦'s are 3W-5E =23.5%
-♦ are 2W-6E =8.5%
-♦ are 1W-7E=1.45%
-East has bold K in ♦=0.2%
-East has Kx in ♦=4.28%
-East has Kxx in ♦=8.83%
for a total of 46.76%. So the total chance of that line is 86.7%
The second line will win when:
-West has♦K =50%
-♦ are 2W-6E =8.5%
-♦ are 1W-7E=1.45%
-East has bold K in ♦=0.2%
-East has Kx in ♦=4.28%
for a total of 64.43%. So the total chance of this line is 91.11%
So Phil line wins (I hope my numbers are corect)
-Ben's line, with ruffing 2 round of ♦ before playing ♣ finesse
-Phil'l line with ruffing one round of ♦ before playing ♣ finesse
Except the double finesse working (75%), the first line will win when:
-♦'s are 3W-5E =23.5%
-♦ are 2W-6E =8.5%
-♦ are 1W-7E=1.45%
-East has bold K in ♦=0.2%
-East has Kx in ♦=4.28%
-East has Kxx in ♦=8.83%
for a total of 46.76%. So the total chance of that line is 86.7%
The second line will win when:
-West has♦K =50%
-♦ are 2W-6E =8.5%
-♦ are 1W-7E=1.45%
-East has bold K in ♦=0.2%
-East has Kx in ♦=4.28%
for a total of 64.43%. So the total chance of this line is 91.11%
So Phil line wins (I hope my numbers are corect)
#9 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-August-21, 14:52
What was the auction and what did east play at trick 1 and was it really the lowest heart spot playing fourth best on lead? And how did spades split.
If you don't think this matters then consider for instance that phil is trying to cater to LHO having the DK and the CKQ. If LHO has a stiff spade then that is impossible since LHO would hasve made a takeout X given that they have a heart honor, and if LHO does not have a heart honor then RHO didn't preempt with KQJxxx of hearts w/r...etc. All of these things should affect your line and whether you use bens line or Phil's line.
If you don't think this matters then consider for instance that phil is trying to cater to LHO having the DK and the CKQ. If LHO has a stiff spade then that is impossible since LHO would hasve made a takeout X given that they have a heart honor, and if LHO does not have a heart honor then RHO didn't preempt with KQJxxx of hearts w/r...etc. All of these things should affect your line and whether you use bens line or Phil's line.
#10
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Posted 2008-August-22, 08:19
Jlall, on Aug 21 2008, 03:52 PM, said:
What was the auction and what did east play at trick 1 and was it really the lowest heart spot playing fourth best on lead? And how did spades split.
i was kibitzer on this hand.
i don't remember the bidding auction, it's fairly simple to reach 6s afterall, and opps all quiet.
LHO lead small heart, RHO play HQ.
And how did spades split? that's the task both declear fail to manage.
they cash the SA to test spade before ruffing Diamond, which means they can no longer strips the red suits with enough entries to dummy. they both reach similar ending as phil described.
i may not claim SA was error, but i feel that starting DA then ruff diamond high, and play S9 to dummy SJ seems cope both spade 1-1 and 2-0.
shan
SHAN
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