[sathyab]

Scoring: MP

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May be this is a self-answering question. You're telling me it's MP and asking if you should finesse or not. Yes, please do; any other questions I can answer for you today ?

The bidding went 1h-(p)-1nt-(2c)-2h-(p)-4h. 1nt by partner was forcing. You play the first few tricks on auto lines.

T1: ♣Q, 7, 6, 4
T2: ♣2, 8, T, ♥8
T3:♥A, 9, 5, 3
T4:♥T, J, Q, ♣5
T5:♣9, K, ♥7, ♦T
T6:♠J, 3, K, 4
T7:♣J, A, ♥4, ♦7

LHO was 2-2 in the rounded suits and to judge from his Diamond discards, probably five ♦s and 4♠s. His signals however could be directed as much at the declarer as his partner. RHO seems to have 3-1-3-6 shape. He doesn't need the ♦A for his lead-directing overcall. If RHO has that card however it's clear to finesse in ♠s and put up the ♦K next. But his outside cards could easily be the two pointed suit Queens, in which case he'll simply play a spade back and you will go down. If you refuse the finesse, you will have egg on your face when it was right as you could have simply won the finesse and played toward ♦K making ten or eleven tricks depending on where the ♦A is located.

[gnasher]

I expect the entire field to be in 4♥. Suppose that I play spades from the top:

If RHO wins the queen and returns a diamond, I still have to guess whether he has Qxx x Qxx AK10xxx or Qxx x Axx AK10xxx. To me these seem equally likely, so I'm no better off than if I'd taken a losing spade finesse and then led a diamond to the king.

If LHO wins ♠Q, I break even if he has Qxxx Jx Axxxx Qx and lose if he has Qxxx Jx Qxxxx Qx or worse. He'd have been more likely to bid over 2♥ with the first hand than with the second, so on average the endplay line loses.

The only time that playing spades from the top gains is when LHO has passed 2♥ with xxxxx Jx Axxx Qx and then cunningly discarded two diamonds.

I take the finesse.

[sathyab]

gnasher, on Jul 27 2008, 02:31 AM, said:

I expect the entire field to be in 4♥.  Suppose that I play spades from the top:

If RHO wins the queen and returns a diamond, I still have to guess whether he has Qxx x Qxx AK10xxx or Qxx x Axx AK10xxx.  To me these seem equally likely, so I'm no better off than if I'd taken a losing spade finesse and then led a diamond to the king.

If LHO wins ♠Q, I break even if he has Qxxx Jx Axxxx Qx and lose if he has Qxxx Jx Qxxxx Qx or worse.  He'd have been more likely to bid over 2♥ with the first hand than with the second, so on average the endplay line loses.

The only time that playing spades from the top gains is when LHO has passed 2♥ with xxxxx Jx Axxx Qx and then cunningly discarded two diamonds.

I take the finesse.

The three key cards here are DA, SQ and DQ. If RHO has the Ace of Diamonds chances are he doesn't need either of the other cards, whereas if he has the SQ he could just have the DQ and LHO still couln't find a bid over 2c with just Qx of clubs and the Ace of Diamonds, VUL. If you take the sapde finesse and it loses to RHO he'll simply play a spade back when he has the DQ and you will now go down when you could have made it by end-playing RHO. So when RHO has DQ and SQ either doubleton or or longer, playing spades from the top does gain.

[whereagles]

After looking at it for a split-second, it seems to me you can make this ~82,5% of the time by leading towards ♦K, ♦J and finally finessing the spade.

620 should be ok at matchpoints, and you have some chances for 650.

[gnasher]

sathyab, on Jul 27 2008, 09:44 AM, said:

The three key cards here are DA, SQ and DQ. If RHO has the Ace of Diamonds chances are he doesn't need either of the other cards, whereas if he has the SQ he could just have the DQ and LHO still couln't find a bid over 2c with just Qx of clubs and the Ace of Diamonds, VUL. If you take the sapde finesse and it loses to RHO he'll simply play a spade back when he has the DQ and you will now go down when you could have made it by end-playing RHO. So when RHO has DQ and SQ either doubleton or or longer, playing spades from the top does gain.

Playing spades from the top to endplay RHO, then playing RHO for ♦Q gains when RHO has ♦Q, but loses when he has ♦A. Taking a losing spade finesse then leading a diamond to the king gains when RHO has ♦A, but loses when he has ♦Q.

As I said, I believe that Qxx x Qxx AK10xxx and Qxx x Axx AK10xxx are equally likely. Therefore on average there is no gain from endplaying RHO.

Are saying that RHO is more likely to have ♠Q + ♦Q than ♠Q + ♦A?

[gnasher]

whereagles, on Jul 27 2008, 12:55 PM, said:

After looking at it for a split-second, it seems to me you can make this ~82,5% of the time by leading towards ♦K, ♦J and finally finessing the spade.

Yes, that does seem rather better.