[jillybean]

Dealer: North Vul: NS Scoring: IMP

♠ A872 ♥ QT76543 ♦ 7 ♣ 4

West North East South

 -     1♦    Pass  1♥
 2♣    2♥    3♣    4♥
 5♣    Dbl   Pass  ? 

Do you agree with the bidding so far, what now?

[NickRW]

Tough one. I showed this to the family and their reaction was to pull. I was frankly torn - and might quite likely pull at the table - but there again that ace of spades is winking at me as a defensive trick.

There are hands that partner could plausibly hold where 5♥ is a make. And there are also plausible hands for opps where 5♣ is a make - which might suggest pulling as you're only really wrong when neither contract makes. However, on reflection, it seems to me that the chances that both contracts don't make is better than 50%. So, although there may be times where the double presents them with a bonus because they make, I think I go for the penalty - it seems the surer route to Plusville

Nick

P.S. Later edit - don't see anything wrong with your bidding thus far - 4♥ must have reasonable chances.

[jtfanclub]

5♥ if we're playing support doubles, pass if we aren't.

[benlessard]

Pull. 5H might make

Quote

I think I go for the penalty - it seems the surer route to Plusville

we are in IMPs.

[goobers]

dislike the bidding, i would have preferred LHO not to have bid 5C

[hotShot]

It's close, but I pull because:

I am very unbalanced, partner has a lot of red cards in his hand and we have an 10-11 card fit.
I'm pretty sure that opps are unbalanced in a similar way. I won't be surprised if opps can make 5♣ while we can make 5♥. In fact I don't really see them down 3 and that's what we need if 5♥ makes.

Unfortunately it's also possible that both sides can only make 4(3), and we could lose a few IMPS for being down in 5.

The only thing that could keep me from pulling is, if partner is known to bid 6/7, if I pull. Not only GIB would do that.

[skjaeran]

I expect us to make at least ten tricks here and the opponents to make at least nine tricks, more probably ten (or more).

At IMPs I don't consider this a problem - I'm always pulling. This will be a big winner every time at least one side can make a 5-level contract. I believe that's happening close to 50% of the time, and then pulling is a BIG long term winner.

[NickRW]

benlessard, on Jul 19 2008, 03:56 AM, said:

Pull. 5H might make

Quote

I think I go for the penalty - it seems the surer route to Plusville

we are in IMPs.

Yes, I know we are. What do you want, even playing IMPS, a 5♥ that for sure might make, but may, overall, be barely showing a profit versus a penalty that is nearly always plus and has some chances itself to be quite profitable but sometimes shows a sizable minus? When I said "Plusville" I meant overall profit, not percentage of times we get some sort of plus.

I think the decision is very close anyway.

Nick

[rogerclee]

5♥, this is too likely to make (and if not, they are too likely to make). Also if partner is inexperienced, he might have read my 4♥ bid as showing values or something, so this seems like a good safety play.

[andy_h]

I pull.

[mikeh]

It is important to understand the message partner was conveying when he doubled 5♣. We are red v white, and have just voluntarily bid a game, so the opps, even if they can make 5♣, are assumed to be saving, and N was in a forcing pass seat. He had to double unless he had extra offence... this is not a penalty double because our auction (with which I heartily agree) announced ownership of the hand.

While I would expect to go plus on defence opposite partner's likely 2=4=5=2 or 3=4=4=2 minimums, it is tough to come up with hands on which we go plus on defence and have poor play for a plus on offence, assuming he has 4 hearts.

I mean, a typical double could include Kx KJxx KQJxx xx... and here 5♥ is cold and we will do well to get 300 out of the opps (no one is getting a spade ruff here).

I think 5♥ is clear.

BTW, while the LOTT tends to break down on freaks, we can also consider that the total tricks rates to be about 21, so if they make 10 tricks, we make 11 and so on... if we make 10, they make 11. I am not a LOTT fanatic but I do keep in it mind on some hands, and, here, it confirms or supports my experience-based view.

[P_Marlowe]

5H, and the bidding up to now was fine.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[ArcLight]

Pull to 5♥

long explanation below

IF we assume a 50% sucess rate then

50% * 12 IMPs - 50%*3 Imps = expected return 4.5 IMPs vs 3 IMPs if we wet them doubled 1.
Thus its worth pulling.
Unless we expected to set them 2, then its 7 IMPS. If its 50/50 taht we set them 1 or 2, then the expected gain is 5 IMPS from Doubling vs 4.5 from pulling.

All this is too close. Are we sure its 50% vs 45%? Etc.

The one factor infavor of pulling is pard will not expect us to have this hand. He is probably thinking we have more defense, and probably (maybe) a heart trick.

I think Clubs are 6-4 or even 7-3. Pard has 2.
Assuming support doubles, pard has 4 hearts, so the hearts are 1/1 or 0/2.

Pard hand is probably 2=4=5=2

They are losing a spade, maybe a heart, and probably a dime or two or three.
I very much doubt they are maing. They are very likely down 1 or 2.

I think pard has more than a minimum to make the penalty double.

To make, we have a club loser, maybe a spade loser (unless pard has the K), and maybe a dime or a heart.

While I think our odds of making are better than 50%, I also think we have a good chance of setting them more than 1. Even so, I pull.

Kx - Axxx - xxxxx - xx in pards hand and we make if the hearts are 1-1.
Pard could have
xx - Axxx - Axxxx - xx
or
xx - Kxxx - KQxxx - xx
and we can make

If pard has
Kx - Axxx - Axxxx - xx
we make 12 if hearts are 1/1

[jtfanclub]

mikeh, on Jul 19 2008, 02:24 PM, said:

BTW, while the LOTT tends to break down on freaks, we can also consider that the total tricks rates to be about 21, so if they make 10 tricks, we make 11 and so on... if we make 10, they make 11. I am not a LOTT fanatic but I do keep in it mind on some hands, and, here, it confirms or supports my experience-based view.

Well, sorry to insist, but....

If you are NOT playing support doubles, I think the X makes it likely partner is 1354. Partner's double pretty much shows that he bid previously with 3 card support, and while I suppose he could be 2353 or the like, I prefer having a singleton to raise partner with 3 card support. Somehow, I don't think he just doubled with a singleton club!

So if that's true, then total tricks is only 18. 5♥ is going to depend on the strength of his hearts, but I'll wager that you have more than 5 tricks in clubs. 800 is certainly not the highest possible score on this.

Now, you may be shocked that somebody would bid 5♣ when they only have an 8 card fit, but they can see the vulnerability too. They see this is a free push, and they're probably right. It's very difficult to leave in 5 clubs doubled when they're green. And they could have a 9 card fit. But I'm betting here that TT isn't 20.

So when not playing support doubles, I think it's a very close decision. Oddly enough, I'm more likely to pass because it's IMPs. I think the most likely cases are -500 and -800 for them. -500 is -3 IMPs vs. 5♥=. -800 is +4 IMPs. So I have to be right a little under half the time...and that's only if 5♥ makes. If 5♥ goes down, I'm sure happy I passed!

If you are playing support doubles, then you gotta bid 5♥. Not only does it change the meaning of 2♥, but it effectively changes the meaning of the X, since 'nothing extra on offense' is now 4 card support, not 3 with shortness outside of clubs.

[jillybean]

mikeh, on Jul 19 2008, 12:24 PM, said:

It is important to understand the message partner was conveying when he doubled 5♣. We are red v white, and have just voluntarily bid a game, so the opps, even if they can make 5♣, are assumed to be saving, and N was in a forcing pass seat. He had to double unless he had extra offence... this is not a penalty double because our auction (with which I heartily agree) announced ownership of the hand.

While I would expect to go plus on defence opposite partner's likely 2=4=5=2 or 3=4=4=2 minimums, it is tough to come up with hands on which we go plus on defence and have poor play for a plus on offence, assuming he has 4 hearts.

I mean, a typical double could include Kx KJxx KQJxx xx... and here 5♥ is cold and we will do well to get 300 out of the opps (no one is getting a spade ruff here).

I think 5♥ is clear.

BTW, while the LOTT tends to break down on freaks, we can also consider that the total tricks rates to be about 21, so if they make 10 tricks, we make 11 and so on... if we make 10, they make 11. I am not a LOTT fanatic but I do keep in it mind on some hands, and, here, it confirms or supports my experience-based view.

Mike,

Im not sure I understand this forcing pass, X not penalty here.
If North had interest in defending would he pass (forcing pass) 5♣ and leave the decision to partner , double (penalty) or bid?

If partner doubles and it is not for penalty then it is sending a clear message that the hand is ours, convert this to penalty at your own risk?

Here's the full hand

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

 -     1♦    Pass  1♥
 2♣    2♥    3♣    4♥
 5♣    Dbl   Pass  5♥
 Pass  Pass  Pass  

I wonder what my partner thought the X was, 5♥ made with the ♠ finesse.

[jtfanclub]

jillybean2, on Jul 19 2008, 09:43 PM, said:

I wonder what my partner thought the X was

I'm more curious as to what he thought 2♥ was.

Sounds to me like he first decided that AKx was 4 card support, then he changed his mind later and decided it was 3 card support.

[jillybean]

jtfanclub, on Jul 19 2008, 08:57 PM, said:

jillybean2, on Jul 19 2008, 09:43 PM, said:

I wonder what my partner thought the X was

I'm more curious as to what he thought 2♥ was.

Sounds to me like he first decided that AKx was 4 card support, then he changed his mind later and decided it was 3 card support.

?

[jtfanclub]

jillybean2, on Jul 19 2008, 11:07 PM, said:

?

It's a 4333 hand. You don't generally raise what could be a 4 card suit with 3 card support and a four-triple three, do you? Especially when there's an unbid major your partner might have that you have 4 of.

So it looks like partner loved his AKx enough that he decided to add a card and call it a 4433 hand. Fine. But over the forcing 5 club bid, there's no reason to double any more. Double here says "if you bid 5♥, don't expect any help from me beyond what I've shown". But if he considered the heart suit good enough to bid 2♥ the first time, surely it's good enough to pass the second time around.

So he changed his mind. He went from saying "I love my heart support" (because that's the only reason that he could drag a free bid out of this) to saying "I hate my heart support". This gave a picture of a very different hand.

It's like those people who open 1 club first hand, partner responds a heart, and they pass, because they first decided that the hand was worth an opening bid and they changed their mind.

[skjaeran]

Your partner probably double because he had a clear minimum, and didn't want you to make a bid at the 5-level, being afraid you'd go down.

This is wrong thinking. He should see that he's got no wasted values in the opponent suit, and that all he's got will be of value to you. Thus he should make a forcing pass, and let you make the final decision with the best possible information. (He should have 4-card support here, but AKx is still great.)

[ArcLight]

1. I dont like Norths opening bid.

2. Why did North open 1♦ instead of 1♣ with 3-3? Both suits are poor anyway.

3. West really bid 5 Clubs with that hand?