[jocdelevat]

Dealer: North Vul: EW Scoring: IMP

♠ 94 ♥ 742 ♦ A9654 ♣ KT6

West North East South

 -     1♦    3♣    3♦
 3♥    4♦    5♣  ? 

sayc normal openings

[rogerclee]

Easy pass. I would lead a spade.

[pclayton]

No I wouldn't double but it isn't that wacky. Pard should have some defense outside of diamonds for the opening bid.

Just be happy you pushed them into a potentially bad spot. Lead a spade like Roger says. There might be a ruff or a trump promotion looming.

[han]

I would also pass.

[Sambolino]

i'd x and lead a spade

[hotShot]

No.
Dbl would promise that I make 2+ tricks and since partner showed ♦ length I can not be sure to get the ♦A.

[andy_h]

I pass

[ArcLight]

I would double, just so the opps know that in general they can't push you around, and take cheap saves. Pard has an opening bid on what? KQJ of diamonds, and??
A heart honor will be well placed. And tahst still not enough for an opening bid. He needs some spades as well.

We may get 0 diamond tricks, or we may get 1 if they are 5-5-2-1 around the table. We have a club trick. We may get a heart and a spade.
LHO is bidding Hearts at the 3 level? Sounds like club and diamond shortness. He might not even have his bid.
RHO has AQJxxxxx in clubs, RHO has AQT9xx in hearts?
I would X. Lead a spade, if pard has the AQ you can get 2 spades, a ruff, and teh Club K, even if you make 0 Dime and Heart tricks. Lots of ways fopr this to go down. And you don't want the opponents to run all over you.

[han]

I think partner likely has 6 diamonds. 4D was just competitive and we didn't show 5 diamonds. There is a good chance that we get 0 diamond tricks on defense. Partner has not made a game try, it is quite unlikely that we can set this 2 tricks. We either set it one trick or they make it on the nose, I am not sure which is more likely. I am not sure how unusual this contract is but I do not expect the IMP odds to favor doubling.

[655321]

Pass and lead a spade.

I don't hate a double, but this is an unusual auction, and they will often be making this. RHO probably has a diamond void and some sort of heart fit. Partner is minimum, and not too distributional - partner could have bid 5♦ but only bid 4♦.

There are some people I would double after this auction.

If partner has KQJxxx of diamonds and the spade Ace, a spade lead will probably even beat 5♣ if partner ducks the first round.

[Vilgan]

I would X and lead the 9 of spades. I expect to have it make sometimes, beat it 1 sometimes, and beat it 2 (on a spade lead, not diamond lead!!) sometimes. Ideally, we would get 1 spade, 2 clubs, 1 heart on a spade lead. If LHO has long hearts and the A of spades, we also need to lead a spade to knock out the entry.

It is absolutely possible this will make, but I think X is also a good idea to discourage partner from bidding 5♦. They will not be happy about KTx of clubs in dummy.

[NickRW]

I definitely don't X. They're red. Why would they be thinking of making a cheap save at the five level against our non game contract?

That doesn't mean to say they are making this, but, in the abscence of prior knowledge that the opps are loonies, I tend to think they have at least a resonable chance of making and therefore we rate to show a loss by upping the stakes.

Nick

[jtfanclub]

I X.

If I don't have the diamond ace, then they have it. So even if it gets ruffed, they get a trick either way. I will happily take an extra 100, I don't need for it to go down 2 to get a good result.

This seems like a very unusual auction. Let's assume for the moment that the average score by them is 110, 130 or 150 (3♣ making 3, 4 or 5)

5♣-2: Undoubled +320 +8. Doubled +610 +12
5♣-1: Undoubled +230 +6. Doubled +330 +8
5♣=: Undoubled -250 -6 Doubled -400 -9

So if other people aren't bidding 5♣, the X doesn't change a lot. Lose an extra 3 IMPs if it makes, gain an extra 2 or 4 IMPs if it goes down. The difference is, as somebody pointed out, your partner shouldn't consider 5♦.

If everybody is bidding 5♣ undoubled
5♣-2: Undoubled 0 0. Doubled: +300 +7
5♣-1: Undoubled 0 0. Doubled: +100 +3
5♣=: Undoubled 0 0. Doubled: -150 -4

So if you think you're setting it half the time, it's still worth an X as long as 1/3 of those sets are down 2 or more.

I think the odds are way over 1/2.

[NickRW]

jtfanclub, on Jun 13 2008, 02:14 PM, said:

I X.

....

I think the odds are way over 1/2.

Well, you may be right.

Actually I hurriedly put in "I don't X" and "trust the opps at this vuln", but, having crunched some numbers in a spread sheet, it looks like double is quite likely to show a profit.

If we assume the opps are making 4♦ at the other table and that opps are either making or one off in 5♣, we only need a 25% chance for them to be off to reach break even point on the profit/loss.

If we assume that opps are in 4♦ going one off at the other table (and I'm not sure 4♦ is making), then we need at least a 33% chance to take this off.

I'm not as optimistic as you about having at least 50/50 odds - but it looks like you don't need 50/50.

Nick

[NickRW]

Of course, this rather assumes that 5♣ is not a normal contract. Maybe it is - perhaps team mates are bidding this right now in the other room. In which case we're gambling a 3 imp gain versus the possibility of a 4 imp loss. Means we need better than 57% chance to take this off in that case...

Nick

[jtfanclub]

NickRW, on Jun 13 2008, 09:35 AM, said:

I'm not as optimistic as you about having at least 50/50 odds - but it looks like you don't need 50/50.

If the 'normal result' is them winning the auction, either at 3♣ or 5♣, then you need 50/50 odds for X to be worth it.

But if the 'normal result' is you winning the auction, then the odds for Xing are much better. For example, if everybody else is in 5♦ making, then you only lose one IMP by doubling if they make 5♣, while you gain 8 if they're down 2.

[jocdelevat]

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

 -     -     -     1♦
 3♣    3♦    3♥    4♦
 5♣    Pass  Pass  5♦
 Dbl   Pass  Pass  Pass
 


We lost 7.9 imps here and of course my pard an advanced player(has acbl 6 number) blame on me because I didn't x. He or she played very well during the whole tourney and I canot say was a disguise intermediate. I didn't x because I thought diamonds will be ruff but still i should give credit to her opening for 2 tricks.
Anyhow if you switch the ace spade contract will make.

[gwnn]

jocdelevat, on Jun 13 2008, 11:40 PM, said:

West  North East  South

-    -    -    1♦
3♣    3♦    3♥    4♦
5♣    Pass  Pass  5♦
Dbl  Pass  Pass  Pass

the auction doesn't normally exist.

and it surely doesn't exist here.

[ArtK78]

Partner's 5♦ bid is irrational.

I might have doubled on your cards, but your pass should have resulted in a plus score.

By the way, I assume that this hand occurred in an ACBL IMP pair game on BBO. In that case, the scoring is XIMPs, not IMPs. And the "6" number you are referring to is just an indication of how many masterpoints the player has earned online on BBO (all masterpoints - not just ACBL masterpoints). As in the real world, the number of masterpoints earned is only a rough gauge of the level of bridge ability - even more so online. I have played with a number of the top players online (according to their BBO number). Some of them can barely tell a spade from a heart.

[neilkaz]

gwnn, on Jun 13 2008, 04:54 PM, said:

jocdelevat, on Jun 13 2008, 11:40 PM, said:

West  North East  South

-     -     -     1♦
3♣    3♦    3♥    4♦
5♣    Pass  Pass  5♦
Dbl   Pass  Pass  Pass

the auction doesn't normally exist.

and it surely doesn't exist here.

PD bid the same values twice with 4♦ then 5♦.

I wouldn't have X'd 5♣ although I think this a close decision at IMPs and wouldn't criticize those who X'd.