Help
So, I got into a discussion with someone on BBO who was claiming erroneous odds for bidding games at IMP's, and I was looking for a website that outlined what the odds really are, and why, and am having a hard time finding a decent one.
Does anybody have one?
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Does anyone have a link for...?
#1
- Group: Advanced Members
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- Location:North Carolina
Posted 2008-June-07, 17:50
Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
So many experts, not enough X cards.
#2 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-June-07, 18:03
I know you're looking for a website but you can tell him this...
If you are vul, and you make 3N you get 600 which wins 450 (600-15), which is 10 imps. If you go down 1 you lose 220 (100+120) which is 6 imps. So you need to make game 6/16's of the time which is 37.5 %
If you are NV and you make 3N win 250 (400-15) which is 6 imps. If you go down 1 you lose 170 (50+120) which is 5 imps. So you need to make game 5/11's of the time which is ~45.5 %
The imps are the same for majors and minors as well. This math only takes into account going down 1 vs making, and only takes into account the opponents not doubling you.
If you are vul, and you make 3N you get 600 which wins 450 (600-15), which is 10 imps. If you go down 1 you lose 220 (100+120) which is 6 imps. So you need to make game 6/16's of the time which is 37.5 %
If you are NV and you make 3N win 250 (400-15) which is 6 imps. If you go down 1 you lose 170 (50+120) which is 5 imps. So you need to make game 5/11's of the time which is ~45.5 %
The imps are the same for majors and minors as well. This math only takes into account going down 1 vs making, and only takes into account the opponents not doubling you.
#3
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Posted 2008-June-08, 13:40
Keeping in mind that this is over an infinite number of hands.
If you're playing a 6 board Swiss round (yes, they do exist) on a 20 or 30 VP scale, the math comes out closer to Match Points. Winning one round by 14 and losing the next round by 3 is slightly worse than winning them both by 3.
The longer the tournament (or if you're just looking for your average IMP results), the closer to the ideal you get.
I can't find a web site either, though you can do the math yourself.
If you're playing a 6 board Swiss round (yes, they do exist) on a 20 or 30 VP scale, the math comes out closer to Match Points. Winning one round by 14 and losing the next round by 3 is slightly worse than winning them both by 3.
The longer the tournament (or if you're just looking for your average IMP results), the closer to the ideal you get.
I can't find a web site either, though you can do the math yourself.
#4
- Wabbit
-
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- Location:Singapore
Posted 2008-June-08, 19:07
I once tried to calculate whether it is worth going for an overtrick in a short 8 board match, and the answer that I got was that it is only worth it if the line of play for the overtrick is very close to 100%.
Of course, this assumes you go down if you fail.
Of course, this assumes you go down if you fail.
SCBA National TD, EBU Club TD
Unless explicitly stated, none of my views here can be taken to represent SCBA or any other organizations.
Unless explicitly stated, none of my views here can be taken to represent SCBA or any other organizations.
#5
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Posted 2008-June-09, 00:34
The "ignoring extra undertricks or the possibility of being doubled" seems like too much of a simplification to me. Especially if you consider that it is preceisely those hands which are near to the cut off point on which have the greatest chance of going more off or of being doubled.
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