commentator lead problem
#1
Posted 2008-May-24, 19:14
What would you lead with
AJxx
K10xx
Q9xx
x
against 1NT-3NT at IMPs?
My double dummy analysis not surprisingly suggest that the small club is best but this seems very suspicious for real life. Apperently the second best double dummy lead is the spade ace followed by a low spade. Hearts is worst (well, the diamond queen is worst ).
What would you lead at the table?
- hrothgar
#2
Posted 2008-May-24, 19:36
-P.J. Painter.
#3
Posted 2008-May-24, 19:38
Second choice low diamond. Leading from Axxx is to be avoided if possible.
I think as a general rule, choosing between honor(AKQ) fourth in two suits, you choose the suit with the lower honor in part because the higher honor is a potential entry to cash the long card in the suit led. Here, we have an Ace, so no reason to prefer the diamond lead over the heart.
#4
Posted 2008-May-24, 21:45
We are all connected to each other biologically, to the Earth chemically, and to the rest of the universe atomically.
We're in the universe, and the universe is in us.
#5
Posted 2008-May-24, 23:03
Anyway, I lead a diamond for feeling reasons.
#6
Posted 2008-May-24, 23:15
whereagles, on May 25 2008, 12:03 AM, said:
It was said that Kit Woolsey came with this after an extensive study. Kit wasn't commentating himself, some other commentator said it. I suspect that there is some truth to it.
It would be interesting to compare AJxx both with Axxx and AQxx.
- hrothgar
#7
Posted 2008-May-24, 23:52
If nothing else this may reinforce me to lead from my strongest suit vs nt when I have most of the hcp.
#8
Posted 2008-May-25, 00:35
No more 4th best, I'm leading partners suit. So here I would lead the ♣x.
So far, I like it
(still learning)
#10
Posted 2008-May-25, 01:09
Club for me.
--Always remember you're unique. Just like everyone else.
#11
Posted 2008-May-25, 01:14
AJxx xxx Axxx xx
K10xx xxx Axxx xx
Q9xx xxx Axxx xx
#12
Posted 2008-May-25, 01:44
effervesce, on May 25 2008, 02:09 PM, said:
Club for me.
Wtf is this post?
You have 4H, the opps have not looked for a Major suit fit, though a 433 is possible. Surely a H is the best lead. A club is off with the pixies when the opponents have bid this way.
#13
Posted 2008-May-25, 02:14
#14
Posted 2008-May-25, 02:29
gnasher, on May 25 2008, 12:14 AM, said:
AJxx xxx Axxx xx
K10xx xxx Axxx xx
Q9xx xxx Axxx xx
Another issue is that with my 10 HCP, partner averages to be pretty weak. Thus the passive lead may be more attractive (actually not sure about this at all).
For the record I think a club lead is ridiculous, and I think it is awful that anybody in this thread has suggested it as even remotely reasonable at the table. The singleton lead will throw partner off way too often. I also don't want to deal with the psychological issues of leading a club and realizing 3NT is down 1 on a normal heart lead.
#15
Posted 2008-May-25, 02:39
jillybean2, on May 25 2008, 07:35 AM, said:
No more 4th best, I'm leading partners suit. So here I would lead the ♣x.
So far, I like it
I only do this when I'm weak. When strong, it's useless unless you want a passive lead.
♥ for me.
#16
Posted 2008-May-25, 04:58
A of H = 3H tricks + S + maybe Q of D or J of S.
A of D = not many chance of putting this contract down.
K of S = if the Q is in declarer then he might make 2H + 2D + 4 or 5 clubs before you make your spades.
A of C or well placed K of C= almost no chance of putting this contract down.
K of D = almost no chance of putting this one down.
If you lead S and partner has 1 card.
A of H = if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + 2H.
A of D = if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + H +A but unlikely.
K of S = hope for 4S and a slow trick.
A of C or well placed K of C= if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + C + H.
K of D = if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + H +A but unlikely.
If you lead D
A of H = almost no chance of putting this contract down.
A of D = hope for 3D +S +H but the K of need to be in declarer.
K of S = hope for 4S and a slow trick. except if declarer has 5 clubs trick.
A of C or well placed K of C= if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + C + H.
K of D = almost no chance of putting this one down unless partner got the T of D
If partner has 2 minor cards but no club tricks.
QS,QH,JD,JH,
QS & QH favor a H lead.
QS & JD few chance of setting the contract.
QS & JH few chance of setting the contract.
So its either a H or a low S. On low H you are hoping that partner got the A and that you can make a slow trick, the problems is see is that declarer knowing you are short in clubs going to finesse you J of S or the Q of D.
A low spades is aiming for 4S (finessing the Q) and making the H king. (like on a passive lead) but maybe declarer can make 5C + 3D+1H if he finesse you Q of D.
It also aim at KQx in declarer (partner having the T) or Hx on dummy.
Im quite tired so ill need to recheck tommorow but so far a spade lead seems better.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#17
Posted 2008-May-25, 06:35
jillybean2, on May 25 2008, 01:35 AM, said:
No more 4th best, I'm leading partners suit. So here I would lead the ♣x.
So far, I like it
If you consider the opponents "your partner," that should work well. LOL
-P.J. Painter.
#18
Posted 2008-May-25, 22:03
The_Hog, on May 25 2008, 02:44 AM, said:
effervesce, on May 25 2008, 02:09 PM, said:
Club for me.
Wtf is this post?
You have 4H, the opps have not looked for a Major suit fit, though a 433 is possible. Surely a H is the best lead. A club is off with the pixies when the opponents have bid this way.
Let's say partner has 5 points, the opponents 25. What's the chances of partner having a heart honor?
The outstanding honors are KQ spades, AQJ hearts, AKJ diamonds and AKQJ clubs (12 picture cards).
The relevant cards are A hearts, Q of hearts and J of hearts. The chances of partner holding AQ is nil, AJ is approximately 1/12C2, or 1/78. Let's be generous and make the chances of partner holding two honors in hearts as 3%.
What's the chances of partner holding 1 heart honor? Approximately 3C1*9C1/12C2, or 12%.
Thus the chances of partner holding anything in hearts is 15%. If partner has the jack, alot of the time the lead gives a free trick. Do you still think that a heart lead is 'obviously much better than a club', given it doesn't give a free trick about only about 10% of the time?
In essence, my argument is this: lead of a heart is probably best IFF (if and only if) their chances of making 3NT are >(80? 90?)%. Otherwise, a passive lead is best.
P.S. You'd better check your argument again (or at least put some clarifiers). Against 1NT-2NT, from AQxx KJxx Kx xxx what is your lead? By your argument you'd lead a heart or spade....
--Always remember you're unique. Just like everyone else.
#19
Posted 2008-May-25, 22:25
effervesce, on May 25 2008, 11:03 PM, said:
The outstanding honors are KQ spades, AQJ hearts, AKJ diamonds and AKQJ clubs (12 picture cards).
The relevant cards are A hearts, Q of hearts and J of hearts. The chances of partner holding AQ is nil, AJ is approximately 1/12C2, or 1/78. Let's be generous and make the chances of partner holding two honors in hearts as 3%.
What's the chances of partner holding 1 heart honor? Approximately 3C1*9C1/12C2, or 12%.
Thus the chances of partner holding anything in hearts is 15%. If partner has the jack, alot of the time the lead gives a free trick. Do you still think that a heart lead is 'obviously much better than a club', given it doesn't give a free trick about only about 10% of the time?
Granted, a club may be very stupid if dummy comes up with long clubs, and the lead sets up clubs for them or helps them pick the suit. But a club lead only has to lose less than 90% of the time to gain over a lead of a heart.
Are you sure you are comparing the right things?
I am assuming your arithmetic is correct (too hard for me ), but sometimes (often?) the contract is cold. Of the times the contract can be beaten, perhaps we need partner to have the right card(s), either a heart card, or enough stoppers that he can get in and establish our hearts before declarer has 9 tricks.
#20
Posted 2008-May-25, 22:37