[skjaeran]

Jlall, on May 22 2008, 03:38 PM, said:

I don't agree with either ken or frances's lines in MP lol

Me neither.

[1eyedjack]

Regarding the MP line:

RHO is just as likely to hold singleton J as singleton K, and singleton J will also produce an overtrick where the safety play limits you to tick.

I think that the combined possibility of J stiff and Jx doubleton offside would likely counter the benefits of making against those in game, so I start with small to the Q, and cross back to repeat the finesse if RHO plays the J under it (or shows out).

[han]

Didn't read the thread but I always agree with Frances.

[kenrexford]

It seems we are now moving away from hidden text, so I'll jump in all out in the open and all. Stop reading if this is inaccurate for you.

We all agree on the line at IMPs.

The question is at MP, then. It also seems that most people finesse the Queen first unless they want to protect the contract (go IMP style), which seems weird to me in a decent field; in a poor field, perhaps that is right. The case of the Queen finesse working and dropping nothing obviously calls for the play of the Ace next. The case of the Queen dropping the Jack also obviously calls for the repeat of the finesse next. So, the question seems to be solely whether to finesse next after the Queen hook fails.

That decision will be 100% unless LHO plays a second pip on the second trump lead. Thus, there are only two possible holding to worry about:

xx-KJ or
Jxx-K.

Justin makes a good observation that some people will plunk down Ace at MP. That will mean that these people beat you with the latter no matter what you do. On the former, they beat you only if you hook twice. This problem tends to lead you toward catering to xx-KJ.

That said, there also seems to be a counter-intuitive argument here. If the layout is, in fact, Jxx-K, you will beat all of the people in 6♠ who started with a finesse of the Queen but opt now to cater to percentages and to those who played Ace first. That includes the 6NT people who hooked and then tried to drop, going down a trick.

If 6NT is a contract that will repeat, you are already in the hole unless 6NT fails. If LHO has two pips, 6NT does not fail when KJ is behind unless Declarer hooks-then-hooks. But, folks seem to hook-then-drop, probably at 6NT as well. So, to beat the 6NT folks who hook first, you must zag.

I'm not sure what I believe on this, but my gut still wants to hook and then hook again in 6♠ because of the 6NT threat. Very shaky in my confidence...

[FrancesHinden]

A 'simultaneous pairs' in England is (I think) similar to a STAC - you get people playing on their normal club night, but everyone round the country plays the same hands and it is scored across the country.

Looking at the results of that is always a great way to find out what the standard of club bridge really is. And I doubt random English club players are worse than random club players anywhere else.

Here's hand 1 from last week's event:

A10x
AQJx
A10
AQJx


KQJxx
Kxxx
xx
xx

The strong hand is dealer and they will (probably!) get an uncontested auction.
Spades are 5-0 and the club finesse is right, so 7NT makes as does 7H by North but 7H by South is down.

The frequencies show:

10 people bid and made grand
178 bid and made a small slam (some doubled, some with an overtrick)
31 went off in something (most likely a grand slam)
521 played in game

A few people had bizarre results (one +260, one passed out, one 1100, one 800)

Only about 20% of the field are capable of getting to slam one a combined 31-count with two 8-card major suit fits.

That's what club bridge is.

Now, put me in the final of the world open pairs (or the European open pairs, which I have played in) and I would take Justin's matchpoint line. In the top section or a final of a national event as well. But not at my club.

[awm]

A couple observations about club players (scary to think that the clubs in LA might be stronger than club play as a whole):

1. They do a lot better in slam bidding when the person who is "captain" of the auction has a better hand. If partner opens 1NT (15-17) and responder holds 15 points a lot of people get to slam; if partner opens 2NT (20-21) and responder holds 10 points, not nearly so many. This is because a lot of club players have trouble visualizing partner's huge hand on the latter auction, but when partner opens the bidding and responder holds a big hand they usually get there. BTW, this applies even when it's wrong; if partner opens and responder holds 17-18 hcp much of the field will be in slam even if there is no fit and slam has no particular play simply because responder's hand is so strong and "partner opened."

2. They do a lot better at bidding major suit slams than minor suit slams. I think this is because a lot of the bidding tools available to them emphasize majors over minors (everyone knows how to transfer to a major and look for slam over 2NT, a lot of club players don't know how to get to a minor suit slam over 2NT). So if you take the hand from this thread and swap spades with clubs in both opener and responder's hand, I would expect very few slam bidders in a typical club field (and many will play in partial on some auction like 1NT-3♣-Pass where responder thought forcing and opener thought NF), whereas on the actual hands I expect a lot of people in slam.

[kenrexford]

Just for S&G, I wonder if anyone would be sick enough to play this hand in this manner:

Win the diamond Ace, diamond King pitching either a heart or a club, ruff a diamond, A-K-ruff in whatever suit you ditched, back to hand in the other suit, ruff a diamond, eliminate that other suit ending in hand, finesse the spade Queen if you got that far.

This is an idiot line, but it allows you to brag if the KJx was behind. If RHO looked very happy, that's an option.

[han]

FrancesHinden, on May 22 2008, 12:06 PM, said:

A10x
AQJx
A10
AQJx


KQJxx
Kxxx
xx
xx

I think that this is not an easy hand for what I believe are standard club-level English methods. If north opens 2NT showing 20-22 balanced, south bids Stayman, north bids 3H and south does not have 3S as slam try in hearts available then it isn't automatic to get to slam.

Of course, if north shows 22-24 balanced and south can ask for keycards in hearts it is impossible to stay out of slam. South can count 12 tricks in a heart contract and only 11 in notrump so it seems right to play in 6H. I believe that is also the best matchpoint contract.

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

[Walddk]

han, on May 22 2008, 09:21 PM, said:

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

Above average club game. 8 results.

2 x 680
4 x 1430
1 x 2210
1 x -100

[1eyedjack]

Walddk, on May 22 2008, 08:31 PM, said:

han, on May 22 2008, 09:21 PM, said:

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

Above average club game. 8 results.

2 x 680
4 x 1430
1 x 2210
1 x -100

I take it that it was matchpointed, then

[Walddk]

1eyedjack, on May 22 2008, 09:34 PM, said:

Walddk, on May 22 2008, 08:31 PM, said:

han, on May 22 2008, 09:21 PM, said:

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

Above average club game. 8 results.

2 x 680
4 x 1430
1 x 2210
1 x -100

I take it that it was matchpointed, then

Sorry, yes.

[NickRW]

I think Frances's numbers are typical. Most pairs at most clubs don't bid slams other than those that go 1N-6N. Therefore, in that sort of field, the safety play seems indicated.

However, at a stronger club, many pairs would bid this slam. And many of those would bid 6N too. And I'd bet that quite a proportion of those don't know the safety play or will forget to think about it in the heat of the moment - so your best chance to beat both those in the game and those in 6N is still the safety play. Of course it could work out bad for you when the safety play isn't necessary and you find that everyone is actually in 6S making an over. Such is life.

Nick

[FrancesHinden]

I did some sums, and the 'matchpoint' line (low to the queen) gains about 3 times as often as it loses (Jx or J offside vs. singleton K offisde).

So a quick maths test: given that, how much of the field needs to be missing the slam for the safety play to be right?

[georgeac]

Walddk, on May 22 2008, 02:31 PM, said:

han, on May 22 2008, 09:21 PM, said:

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

Above average club game. 8 results.

2 x 680
4 x 1430
1 x 2210
1 x -100

Which one was your score Roland?

[han]

FrancesHinden, on May 23 2008, 07:56 AM, said:

I did some sums, and the 'matchpoint' line (low to the queen) gains about 3 times as often as it loses (Jx or J offside vs. singleton K offisde).

So a quick maths test: given that, how much of the field needs to be missing the slam for the safety play to be right?

60%, ignoring 6NT for a second.

It's a small sample but Roland's club is good enough to finesse.

[FrancesHinden]

I had a quick think about it and decided it wasn't a 'quick' question.

[han]

Jlall, on May 23 2008, 10:39 AM, said:

han, on May 23 2008, 10:14 AM, said:

FrancesHinden, on May 23 2008, 07:56 AM, said:

I did some sums, and the 'matchpoint' line (low to the queen) gains about 3 times as often as it loses (Jx or J offside vs. singleton K offisde). 

So a quick maths test:  given that, how much of the field needs to be missing the slam for the safety play to be right?

60%, ignoring 6NT for a second.

It's a small sample but Roland's club is good enough to finesse.

It's not that clear though since you don't know how the declarers in 6S will play the suit (ie, if any will take ken's line).

I know. The 60% is assuming that pairs in 6S use either the safety play or the finesse-drop line, and that the other pairs are in game.

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on May 23 2008, 10:39 AM, said:

han, on May 23 2008, 10:14 AM, said:

FrancesHinden, on May 23 2008, 07:56 AM, said:

I did some sums, and the 'matchpoint' line (low to the queen) gains about 3 times as often as it loses (Jx or J offside vs. singleton K offisde). 

So a quick maths test:  given that, how much of the field needs to be missing the slam for the safety play to be right?

60%, ignoring 6NT for a second.

It's a small sample but Roland's club is good enough to finesse.

It's not that clear though since you don't know how the declarers in 6S will play the suit (ie, if any will take ken's line).

Actually, the odds that anyone takes a line I take are usually rather small and hence negligible. LOL

[benlessard]

The first and formemost is to make an assement of the "field". In the club where im director. 90+% are going to be in slam. Nobody will be in 7. at least 30% will be in 6Nt.

so a in reasonnable field.

1 in game.
3 in 6Nt.
6 in 6S.

We play low S and see a x.

So the possible lines are
1- A & low to the Q
2 -low to Q then A
3 -low to T and finesse the Q
4 - low to Q the low to T
5 - Low to T then A

KJxb---- void = 6,6,7,6,7
KJx------b= 6,6,7,6,7
Kxb-----J= 6,7,6,7,5
Kx------Jb= 6,7,6,7,6
Jbx-----K= 7,5,6,6,6
Jx-----Kb =6,6,6,6,6
xb-----KJ =6,6,5,5,6

After that its easy to see what is better according to field and to possible contract at the other tables.