[djehuti]

-----N--------E--------S---------W
-----1♠--2♦----2♠-----pass
----4♠----all pass

Scoring: IMP

---

Lead : K ♦

[awm]

I think I would just play for either ♠ to break or ♥A onside.

There are some lines you can take to try to run clubs, such as ducking the first diamond, winning the second, playing a spade to the ten, ruffing a diamond continuation, cashing the spade ace, and cashing three clubs. This line requires diamonds not 7-1, but otherwise makes if spades are 2-2 and clubs are 3-2, or spades are 3-1 and clubs are 3-2 with the long clubs and long spades together, or if spades are 2-2 and the heart ace is onside. But this gives up on a few of the 2-2 spade breaks and it's not even clear it improves the odds given that spades go 3-1 (i.e. is the heart finesse less likely than clubs 3-2 with the three-card black suit holdings together? certainly the heart finesse is less than 50% because of the overcall, but this club play is also quite a bit less than 50%).

[FrancesHinden]

awm, on May 23 2008, 06:48 PM, said:

I think I would just play for either ♠ to break or ♥A onside.

And how do you plan to do that?

Win the first (or second diamond).
Cash two top spades. They break! Wonderful!
Now what?

If I'm prepared to play for diamonds not 7-2 I think I prefer the duck the diamond, win the ace, spade to the 10 line.

[awm]

FrancesHinden, on May 23 2008, 03:01 PM, said:

awm, on May 23 2008, 06:48 PM, said:

I think I would just play for either ♠ to break or ♥A onside.

And how do you plan to do that?

Win the first (or second diamond).
Cash two top spades. They break! Wonderful!
Now what?

If I'm prepared to play for diamonds not 7-2 I think I prefer the duck the diamond, win the ace, spade to the 10 line.

How?

Win the lead. Spade to ace, spade to king. If spades break I have 6♠+1♦+3♣ is ten tricks and I can take the heart finesse for the overtrick.

If spades don't break, here I am in dummy. Time to lead heart up to my king....

I suppose there is a decision to make if West plays a spade honor when I bang down my ace (is the uneven diamond division enough to overrule restricted choice?)

On a priori odds (i.e. ignoring the diamond overcall) my line is about 11/16 to work whereas playing the other way is more like 15/32. This is a huge difference (close to 70% versus around 47%).

Certainly after the overcall, the heart finesse is now less than 50-50. But the odds of a 4-1 club break also go up a bit (given diamonds probably 6-2 or maybe 5-3). And the difference between these two lines a priori is so huge that you need a lot to overcome it -- even if the heart finesse is only 25% to work my line seems better.

[kenrexford]

Northis declaring, right? So, this layout is screwed up for how you would normall view things. Like a lead out of turn.

So, I'll pretend East leads out of turn. I duck (scissors). I expect a card to come back that I will win, like another diamond. I then win the Ace and lead a small spade to the 10 (unless West shows out). I'll keep East in that way. On whatever return, I cash the top spade in dummy. If spades are 2-2, I lose at most three tricks this way. If spades are 3-1, I have to use my table feel to decide whether to cash three clubs and then come to hand (fear of a club ruff) or to give up on that and just take the damned heart finesse.

This works just as well when spades are 2-2, but it allows me time to think if spades are 3-1. It also allows me to pick up 4-0 spade splits with hope.

[awm]

kenrexford, on May 23 2008, 04:55 PM, said:

So, I'll pretend East leads out of turn. I duck (scissors). I expect a card to come back that I will win, like another diamond. I then win the Ace and lead a small spade to the 10 (unless West shows out). I'll keep East in that way. On whatever return, I cash the top spade in dummy. If spades are 2-2, I lose at most three tricks this way.

See here's where you lost me. Say you duck the diamond, win the second, and play a spade to the ten losing to an honor. Now another diamond comes back and you ruff. You cash the top spade and both follow. Okay, trumps are pulled. You've lost one spade and one diamond. But how do you lose at most three tricks this way? You still have two potentially losing hearts. You need to either take the heart finesse or discard a heart on a club. But you have very few entries to the long club hand (in fact you have exactly one entry since you have already played the diamond ace). So unless the ♣J falls under the ♣AKQ, you cannot set up clubs and then get back to the long club hand to discard your heart loser.

So on this line, even when spades are 2-2 you still need either club jack falling or the heart finesse (as well as diamonds not 7-1). The alternative line is 100% when spades are 2-2.

If spades are 3-1, you need the third spade not to be with fewer than three clubs (otherwise when you try to cash the three top clubs they ruff and cash heart ace for one down). You also need either the club jack falling in three rounds (so you can discard your hearts) or the heart finesse. Having the long clubs in the same hand with the long spades is around 50%, and a 3-2 club break is not guaranteed either, so it seems like this line will make on substantially less than half the 3-1 spade breaks. The alternate line makes on 3-1 spades when the heart finesse wins, which is also probably less than half (given the overcall) but you must combine this with substantially better odds on 2-2 spades.

[kenrexford]

Hooblety-jubletee.

Um.

Yeah, but I pick up twice as many 4-0 spade splits, also.

[djehuti]

If you duck a ♦ then a ♠ , a ♦ will allow W to discard a ♣ anyway i think(but in that scenario, you would obviously not play on ♣)... unless E has overcalled with a 3-2-5-3...( otherwise W would have 8 ♥ )

My line would be to win immediately the ♦ , and finess the ♥. If it looses , play ♠ , with restricted choice if a big one appears on the overcaller...

Another option would be to cash 3 ♣ after ducking the lead.

I dont really know about this one...