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Zar points, useful or waste of energy New to the concept, does it help...

#341 User is offline   Zar 

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Posted 2005-September-25, 22:23

>
I am willing to be convinced that I am wrong.
<

You are a rare bird in this “expert” section of the BBO :-)

>
The problem that I have is that on hands containing strong high-card values, distributional aspects have less proportionate relevance to the total trick-taking potential.
<

YES.

Let me repeat, just in case: YES, YES, YES. :-)

OF COURSE it will have DIFFERENT proportional value.

In a hand with 10 HCP and 7600 the amount of GOREN points is 10 + 6 = 16 and the distributional part 6/16 = 38%.

In a hand with 10 HCP and 4441 the GOREN points are 10 + 2 = 12 and the distributional part is 2/11 = 17%.

In a hand with 10 HCP and 4333 the GOREN points are 10 + 0 = 10 and the distributional part is 0/10 = 0%.

Do you make a difference between 38, 17, and 0?

>
To take a contrived and extreme example:
<

Each hand in the “semi-balanced” hand (the second one) has 26 from HCP and CTRL plus 10 distributional points for the 4432, totaling 36 ZP each. This means the pair has 72 Zar Points, with 67 needed for 13 tricks. Thus, hand #1 has 17 tricks while hand #2 has “only” 14 tricks.

Are you convinced? :-)

>
I think that there is still a difference of opening
<

There is ALWAYS a difference of opening :-)

>
If a hand holds 15 HP and 5521 shape, it evaluates as 27 Justin points
<

I honestly have no clue what Justin points are (or Tysen or Hrothgar points for that matter) and I cannot give an opinion on something I have not studied in advance.

>
Assume that you have two hands, each worth 24 Zar points.

One hand holds 10 HP and 14 DP...
The second holds 14 HCP and 10 DP...

The same boundary condition applies to both hands. If it is calibrated accurately for one, its going to be off for the other...
<

“Calibrated accurately” ... Are you suggesting that:

Honor Points
-------------------- = CONSTANT ???
Distribution Points

Let me know if this is what your statement actually manifests. Can you please have a look at my example with GOREN above in this posting? I guess this example covers your concern.

Cheers:

ZAR
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#342 User is offline   waychan 

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Posted 2005-September-26, 09:10

ZarPoint is a good method.
but I only use it in " is there be 5m? "
I like 4321, since I can finger opps honors, Zar done?
from Chinese with poor enlish
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#343 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2005-September-26, 09:22

Zar, on Sep 26 2005, 07:23 AM, said:

Assume that you have two hands, each worth 24 Zar points.

One hand holds 10 HP and 14 DP...
The second holds 14 HCP and 10 DP...

The same boundary condition applies to both hands. If it is calibrated accurately for one, its going to be off for the other...


“Calibrated accurately” ... Are you suggesting that:

Honor Points
-------------------- = CONSTANT ???
Distribution Points

Let me know if this is what your statement actually manifests. Can you please have a look at my example with GOREN above in this posting? I guess this example covers your concern.

Cheers:

ZAR

I am most certainly not saying that HP / DP is a constant...

I am, however, noting that you use a fixed scale to determine whether two hands produce game.

52 Zars for Game at level 4
57 Zars for level 5
62 Zars for level 6

This same scale applies regardless of the ratio of HP to DP in the two hands.
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#344 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2005-September-26, 09:28

hrothgar, on Sep 25 2005, 07:32 PM, said:

Justin claims (but offers no proof) that the linear relationship does not hold true. I'm gonna pull some numbers out of my butt here, but hypothetically, he might say that the a 5521 shape is worth 14 points if it holds 10 HP, but only only 12 points if it holds 15 HP.

If a hand holds 15 HP and 5521 shape, it evaluates as 27 Justin points
If a hand holds 10 HP and 5521 shape, it evaluates as 29 Justin points

I think, Richard, you do Justin and his point of view a great dis-service

5521, 10 hcp, "richard claimed justin 29 point (yes.. denfined points were to illustrate his point not real calculation) .


5521, 10 hcp, "richard claimed justin 29 point (yes.. denfined points were to illustrate his point not real calculation) .


I would hope no one has to offer a proof that the second hand with 15 hcp is much stronger than the first with 10.

Justin's point was actually something quite different. It was the premise that "weak hands" gain more form shape than strong ones. For lack of a better way to say it, two hands with only 8 hcp. one with 5521 would be better than a balanced one. But two hands with 20 hcp, 5521 is still better than balanced, but the "extra" values for the distribution is not as much as the extra values in the weak hand. This is probably not stated as clearly as it could be, but that was his point I am sure, not that weak hands with distribution is worth more than strong hands with the same distribution, that is just silly.
--Ben--

#345 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2005-September-26, 09:29

Zar, on Sep 26 2005, 07:23 AM, said:

I honestly have no clue what Justin points are (or Tysen or Hrothgar points for that matter) and I cannot give an opinion on something I have not studied in advance.

I am not asking you to give an opinion regarding whether Justin points are accurate or not.

I made a simple post trying to help you understand Justin's original post...

Perhaps I should have been more clear that the numbers that I provided were there to illustrate the point.
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Posted 2005-September-26, 09:32

My website on Justin Points (JP) will be up soon.
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#347 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2005-September-26, 09:33

inquiry, on Sep 26 2005, 06:28 PM, said:

hrothgar, on Sep 25 2005, 07:32 PM, said:

Justin claims (but offers no proof) that the linear relationship does not hold true.  I'm gonna pull some numbers out of my butt here, but hypothetically, he might say that the a 5521 shape is worth 14 points if it holds 10 HP, but only only 12 points if it holds 15 HP.

If a hand holds 15 HP and 5521 shape, it evaluates as 27 Justin points
If a hand holds 10 HP and 5521 shape, it evaluates as 29 Justin points

I think, Richard, you do Justin and his point of view a great dis-service

Actually, I think that my example shows that I can't add worth a damn

Let me try again

Justin claims (but offers no proof) that the linear relationship does not hold true. I'm gonna pull some numbers out of my butt here, but hypothetically, he might say that the a 5521 shape is worth 14 points if it holds 10 HP, but only only 12 points if it holds 15 HP.

If a hand holds 15 HP and 5521 shape, it evaluates as 27 Justin points
If a hand holds 10 HP and 5521 shape, it evaluates as 24 Justin points

I have indicated the relevant change in red...
I also went back and corrected this in the original post

I guess that the point which I was making is sufficently obscure that an arithmetic error crippled your ability to understand
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#348 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2005-September-26, 09:45

I don't think ZAR would disagree with the assessment, as stated by justin, that distibution is more valuable to weaker hands than stronger hands. Clearly this is true (I doubt however that it is linear). I think this is one of the reasons that he finds that at very high levels the extra tricks require MORE ZAR points than at lower tricks (I am not going back to read it now, but the going from 11 to 12 tricks required more ZAR points and going from 12 to 13 more still.. the five points per level is an estimate...also, lower levels required fewer per level, duh).

The relationship between hcp and distribution is probably determinable by the same sort of methods tysen and ZAR use, but it is all an approximation anyway. The way ZAR describes this relations is to not be stupid when counting ZAR points, to check for aces and controls before blasting to slam. OF course if you are just competing, don't worry about such niceties... use your distirbution to your advantage.

As far as where you made your mistake in your math, who knew... you made up numbers and posted them with a statement that was clearly wacky... if justin preached that, his friend arron could create a webpage just about him.
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#349 User is offline   tysen2k 

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Posted 2005-September-26, 11:09

Okay, I looked into this a little more. This table compares the trick taking value of average hands for each shape to yarborough hands for each shape.

Pattern [space]Average [space]Yarb. [space]Worth
4-3-3-3 [space] 0.00 [space] [space]0.00 [space] [space]-
4-4-3-2 [space] 0.29 [space] [space]0.32 [space] 110%
5-3-3-2 [space] 0.34 [space] [space]0.45 [space] 132%
5-4-2-2 [space] 0.61 [space] [space]0.75 [space] 123%
6-3-2-2 [space] 0.71 [space] [space]0.97 [space] 137%
4-4-4-1 [space] 0.82 [space] [space]0.82 [space] 100%
5-4-3-1 [space] 0.89 [space] [space]0.97 [space] 109%
6-3-3-1 [space] 0.98 [space] [space]1.18 [space] 120%
7-2-2-2 [space] 1.11 [space] [space]1.59 [space] 143%
6-4-2-1 [space] 1.22 [space] [space]1.45 [space] 119%
5-5-2-1 [space] 1.23 [space] [space]1.42 [space] 115%
7-3-2-1 [space] 1.34 [space] [space]1.76 [space] 131%
5-4-4-0 [space] 1.58 [space] [space]1.51 [space] [space]96%
6-4-3-0 [space] 1.71 [space] [space]1.76 [space] 103%
5-5-3-0 [space] 1.71 [space] [space]1.72 [space] 101%
6-5-1-1 [space] 1.81 [space] [space]2.09 [space] 115%
7-4-1-1 [space] 1.87 [space] [space]2.26 [space] 121%
6-5-2-0 [space] 2.08 [space] [space]2.24 [space] 108%
7-4-2-0 [space] 2.09 [space] [space]2.36 [space] 113%


If this table is unclear, it means that for an average hand, a 5422 shape takes 0.61 tricks more than a 4333 hand, but a 5422 yarborough takes 0.75 tricks more than a 4333 yarborough.

It looks like on average distribution is worth about 1.2x as much for a yarborough than for an average hand.

Useful? Probably minimally for initial evaluation. However it turns into a much bigger factor when we talk about adjustments for support when we have more information from the bidding. For example from my RGB article:

xxxxx
-
xxxxx
xxx

This hand is worth about 4.5 Goren points initially and worth about 10 points if partner opens 1, gaining 5.5 in adjustments

However, this hand

xxxxx
-
AQxxx
Axx

is worth 14.5 points initially but 17 after partner opens 1, gaining only 2.5 points for the superfit with a void.

Tysen
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#350 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2005-September-26, 14:59

Cool Tysen. Could you post a link to the RBG thread?
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#351 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2005-September-26, 15:20

tysen2k, on Sep 26 2005, 12:09 PM, said:

Okay, I looked into this a little more. This table compares the trick taking value of average hands for each shape to yarborough hands for each shape.

Pattern [space]Average [space]Yarb. [space]Worth
4-3-3-3 [space] 0.00 [space] [space]0.00 [space] [space]-
4-4-3-2 [space] 0.29 [space] [space]0.32 [space] 110%
5-3-3-2 [space] 0.34 [space] [space]0.45 [space] 132%
5-4-2-2 [space] 0.61 [space] [space]0.75 [space] 123%
6-3-2-2 [space] 0.71 [space] [space]0.97 [space] 137%
4-4-4-1 [space] 0.82 [space] [space]0.82 [space] 100%
5-4-3-1 [space] 0.89 [space] [space]0.97 [space] 109%
6-3-3-1 [space] 0.98 [space] [space]1.18 [space] 120%
7-2-2-2 [space] 1.11 [space] [space]1.59 [space] 143%
6-4-2-1 [space] 1.22 [space] [space]1.45 [space] 119%
5-5-2-1 [space] 1.23 [space] [space]1.42 [space] 115%
7-3-2-1 [space] 1.34 [space] [space]1.76 [space] 131%
5-4-4-0 [space] 1.58 [space] [space]1.51 [space] [space]96%
6-4-3-0 [space] 1.71 [space] [space]1.76 [space] 103%
5-5-3-0 [space] 1.71 [space] [space]1.72 [space] 101%
6-5-1-1 [space] 1.81 [space] [space]2.09 [space] 115%
7-4-1-1 [space] 1.87 [space] [space]2.26 [space] 121%
6-5-2-0 [space] 2.08 [space] [space]2.24 [space] 108%
7-4-2-0 [space] 2.09 [space] [space]2.36 [space] 113%


If this table is unclear, it means that for an average hand, a 5422 shape takes 0.61 tricks more than a 4333 hand, but a 5422 yarborough takes 0.75 tricks more than a 4333 yarborough.

It looks like on average distribution is worth about 1.2x as much for a yarborough than for an average hand.

Useful? Probably minimally for initial evaluation. However it turns into a much bigger factor when we talk about adjustments for support when we have more information from the bidding. For example from my RGB article:

xxxxx
-
xxxxx
xxx

This hand is worth about 4.5 Goren points initially and worth about 10 points if partner opens 1, gaining 5.5 in adjustments

However, this hand

xxxxx
-
AQxxx
Axx

is worth 14.5 points initially but 17 after partner opens 1, gaining only 2.5 points for the superfit with a void.

Tysen

I don't know. Can you not just say both hands are worth 3 Dist tricks?
total tricks =Dist tricks(combined hands) + working hcp tricks(combined hands)?
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#352 User is offline   Zar 

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Posted 2005-September-27, 05:40

>
I am most certainly not saying that HP / DP is a constant... I am, however, noting that you use a fixed scale to determine whether two hands produce game.

52 Zars for Game at level 4
57 Zars for level 5
62 Zars for level 6

This same scale applies regardless of the ratio of HP to DP in the two hands.
<

IF you come up with some “ingenious” flexible schema (whatever that means), HOW are you going to communicate it to your partner? It’s loike changing the system you play without your PD knowinf about it :-)

>
If a hand holds 15 HP and 5521 shape, it evaluates as 27 Justin points
If a hand holds 10 HP and 5521 shape, it evaluates as 24 Justin points
<

These must be some magic points :-) In Zar Points a hand that goes down is worth less that a hand that makes the contract :-)

>
I don't think ZAR would disagree with the assessment, as stated by justin, that distibution is more valuable to weaker hands than stronger hands.
<

I actually posted specific numbers for that rather than just agreeing or disagreeing.

>
Cool Tysen. Could you post a link to the RBG thread?
<

Looks like you’ve been waiting for these “cool” numbers all your life :-) Did you remember all of them – that’s important ... I am just missing the point of all this “science” – it’s not bad to have a point when you dump numbers on top people’s heads (look who’s talking about dumping numbers :-)

>
5422 shape takes 0.61 tricks more than a 4333 hand, but a 5422 yarborough takes 0.75 tricks more than a 4333 yarborough.
<

This goes beyond my mental abilities ... – if you are trying to say that shape and HCP are NOT constant, this is reflected in a much simpler way by the % numbers I posted on the previous page. Have a look.

Cheers:

ZAR
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#353 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2005-September-27, 09:58

Zar, on Sep 27 2005, 06:40 AM, said:

This goes beyond my mental abilities ...

ZAR

Then why reply?
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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#354 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2005-September-27, 10:09

Zar, on Sep 27 2005, 02:40 PM, said:

>5422 shape takes 0.61 tricks more than a 4333 hand, but a
>5422 yarborough takes 0.75 tricks more than a 4333 yarborough.

>This goes beyond my mental abilities ... – if you are trying to say
>that shape and HCP are NOT constant, this is reflected in a much
>simpler way by the % numbers I posted on the previous page. >Have a look.

The percentage figures that you provide on the previous page are derived from boundary conditions. The existence of these hard boundaries is what allows you to apply the pigeonhole principle.

I BELIEVE that Justin was raising a much more general point... Even if we ignore the boundary conditions, weak hands benefit from shape more than strong hands.

I'm not sure how Tysen defined "average" hands during his simulation.
Accordingly, its unclear which variant was tested...
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#355 User is offline   tysen2k 

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Posted 2005-September-27, 10:53

hrothgar, on Sep 27 2005, 08:09 AM, said:

I'm not sure how Tysen defined "average" hands during his simulation.

Average is the sum of all hands divided by the total number of hands. This is likely close to but not exctly the same as a 10 HCP hand.
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#356 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2005-September-27, 10:57

tysen2k, on Sep 27 2005, 07:53 PM, said:

hrothgar, on Sep 27 2005, 08:09 AM, said:

I'm not sure how Tysen defined "average" hands during his simulation.

Average is the sum of all hands divided by the total number of hands. This is likely close to but not exctly the same as a 10 HCP hand.

Thanks for the clarification...

I was worried that you might have been simulating average hands by running an unconstrained monte carlo. In this case, the aforementioned boundary issues would have entered the equation (pun intention).
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#357 User is offline   tysen2k 

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Posted 2005-September-27, 11:10

Zar, on Sep 27 2005, 03:40 AM, said:

I don't think ZAR would disagree with the assessment, as stated by justin, that distibution is more valuable to weaker hands than stronger hands.
<

I actually posted specific numbers for that rather than just agreeing or disagreeing.

Zar posted numbers, but I don't think he really addressed the issue of distribution being more valuable to a weaker hand. He stated two things:

1. Flat hands have a maximum of 37 HCP while wilder distributions have a lower maximum.
2. A weaker hand makes distribution be a larger percentage of its total strength. No one is denying that the percentage of points made up from distribution is larger, that is just a principle of math: dist/(HCP+dist) goes up as HCP goes down.

But we're trying to say that the absolute values of dist and HCP are not independent. A 5422 hand has "x points" of distribution when it has honors but is worth "y points" of distribution with fewer/no honors, where y>x. Zar does not address this, TSP doesn't either. Binky actually does, but it's too hard to use at the table, only by computers. But by studying Binky and the adjustments that are needed as the auction progresses, maybe we can come to some generalizations that are simpler and can be used at the table...
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#358 User is offline   tysen2k 

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Posted 2005-September-27, 11:12

Hannie, on Sep 26 2005, 12:59 PM, said:

Cool Tysen. Could you post a link to the RBG thread?

[Improving Hand Evaluation Part 1]
http://tinyurl.com/25huc

[Improving Hand Evaluation Part 2]
http://tinyurl.com/383e6
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#359 User is offline   tysen2k 

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Posted 2005-September-27, 11:19

mike777, on Sep 26 2005, 01:20 PM, said:

I don't know. Can you not just say both hands are worth 3 Dist tricks?
total tricks =Dist tricks(combined hands) + working hcp tricks(combined hands)?

Something's got to change. Both the value of the honors and distribution can't remain constant.

xxxxx
-
xxxxx
xxx

xxxxx
-
AQxxx
Axx

If you define a yarborough as 0 working HCP, then the second hand has 10 "points" of working strength for initial evaluation since the second hand is worth 10 more points than the first. However, once partner opens 1, the second hand is now worth only 7 more points than the first. Is it that the first hand gained more distribution points or the second lost HCP? Both? Something's got to give.

But also note that

xxx
xxx
AQxx
Axx

is more than 10 "points" stronger than

xxx
xxx
xxxx
xxx

So how do we resolve this?

Tysen
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#360 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2005-September-27, 14:34

Zar, on Sep 26 2005, 05:23 AM, said:

>
To take a contrived and extreme example:
<

Each hand in the “semi-balanced” hand (the second one) has 26 from HCP and CTRL plus 10 distributional points for the 4432, totaling 36 ZP each. This means the pair has 72 Zar Points, with 67 needed for 13 tricks. Thus, hand #1 has 17 tricks while hand #2 has “only” 14 tricks.

Are you convinced? :-)

At the moment I remain unconvinced either way, but am still struggling.

My example was perhaps poor, because the surplus of available tricks in excess of 13 muddies the issue. You accept that the Zar evaluation of each hand is considerably different, and maintain that as both evaluations give rise to a trick expectation in excess of the maximum possible 13 the difference in evaluation can be ignored. I am not convinced that you do not give rise to similar differences when the total trick evaluation is more modest. Consider some more examples (in each case Spades are trumps):

Example 3.
Trick expectancy:
8 if opps lead minor
10 if opps lead major
Example 3.
Trick expectancy:
8 if opps lead minor
10 if opps lead major
Example 3.
Trick expectancy:
8 if opps lead minor
10 if opps lead major
Example 3.
Trick expectancy:
8 if opps lead minor
10 if opps lead major

Contrasting examples 4 and 6, East's distribution contributes its full weight toward the total trick-taking potential of the hand. Contrasting examples 3 and 5, West's Heart honours contribute considerably to the Zar evaluation in example 3 but the contribution to the trick taking potential is speculative.

Now you could argue that in example 3 they were unlucky that the hands were not instead, say
Example 3.
Trick expectancy:
8 if opps lead minor
10 if opps lead major

Now, supposing that you were East holding the 5-0-4-4 Yarborough, you knew that partner had AKQxx in Spades with 3-2-3 in the remaining suits respectively, and you had to decide on the final contract. How would the knowledge of partner's total non-Spade values (but ignorance of their location) affect your decision? You would probably decide that (on average) roughly one third of partner's non-Spade values would be in Hearts and utterly wasted. OK it won't be exactly one-third, I know, but I do not see that variation as being material to the point.

Now, supposing that you were East holding the 5-3-2-3 Yarborough in possession of the same information about West. You would probably conclude that any non-Spade values that partner holds will be worth about the same irrespective of their location (ie worth their full weight). OK they may be discounted slightly if held in Diamonds, but nothing like the wastage opposite a Heart void.

If you decide (crudely) that opposite 5-0-4-4 West's non-spade values are on average worth 2/3 of their face value, but opposite 5-3-2-3 they are worth 3/3 of their face value (again on average), then the stronger West's hand is the greater is the divergence of the value of West's hand depending on East's distribution, having the greater value opposite the balanced shape.

By separating out a distributional value of a hand from a high card value, without any apparent dependency of one on the other, this effect cannot be reflected in the total Zar evaluation.

Or so it seems to me.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"

"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
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