[Trumpace]

Adv/Adv+ please hide your answers.

Scoring: IMP

Lead ♦T

---

East was dealer.

Bidding goes :

(1D), X , (1H), Pass,

(1NT), 2C , (2D), 3C,

All Pass.

LHO leads ♦T (presumably from T9xx), RHO plays the Q.

Plan the play to make.

[jillybean]

We have 5♣, A♦ and A♥ = 7 winners , we need 2 more

I think opps distribution is something like xxx,KQxx,xxxx,xx and KQJ,Jxx,KQxx,xxx

If ♠'s are 3-3 we have an extra trick in ♠, we could pitch a ♥ on the 4th ♠ for the last trick but opps will play ♥'s before we can set up the ♠'s so.. I think it must rely on playing 3 rounds of trump first and forcing opps to discard.

I dont see it, unless opps make an error. Bottom line is I cant do these simulations

[neilkaz]

jillybean2, on May 13 2008, 11:03 PM, said:

We have 5♣, A♦ and A♥ = 7 winners , we need 2 more

I think opps distribution is something like xxx,KQxx,xxxx,xx and KQJ,Jxx,KQxx,xxx

If ♠'s are 3-3 we have an extra trick in ♠, we could pitch a ♥ on the 4th ♠ for the last trick but opps will play ♥'s before we can set up the ♠'s so.. I think it must rely on playing 3 rounds of trump first and forcing opps to discard.

I dont see it, unless opps make an error. Bottom line is I cant do these simulations 

Count losers also. We lose only 1♦ 2♥ 2♠..edit..posted too late last night and also missed the ace of ♠, but the story is the same.

Is there a best line to enhance the chances of getting lucky and having the opps help our chances to bring this one home ?

[andy_h]

Spoiler

Not so sure what the certainty line is, but I'll give it a whizz. From the bidding it seems like RHO is 3=2=5=3 so hopefully my 9th trick will come from an endplay or the 13th spade (we have 8 top tricks). I will win the 1st trick, and draw 3 rounds of trumps and duck a spade (or probably duck a spade first since that will give RHO the chance to err by not unblocking the K from KHx or something). They can then take 1D, 1S and not wanting to set up my 13th spade they will switch to a heart. I will duck the 1st heart and win the 2nd heart, then play a spade towards my Ax. Either RHO pops K which I duck or he plays low then I win the spade and exit a spade for my 13th spade.

[FrancesHinden]

jillybean2, on May 14 2008, 05:03 AM, said:

We have 5♣, A♦ and A♥ = 7 winners , we need 2 more

...and the ace of spades

p.s. an alternative possible option over the 1NT rebid was to double it

[NickRW]

I dunno, perhaps I am showing my ignorance, but I don't see a lot of hope for this. There are five losers and if spades are 3/3, even quite weak defenders will have taken their five tricks before you get the spade set up.

Possibly you can draw trumps and play on red suits until you're out of them, then play Ace and another spade throwing in a defender holding KQ double who will have give you a sluff and ruff. But surely defenders can break up your little scheme in time....

Put us out of our misery please

Nick

[Trumpace]

NickRW, please also read andy_h's post. It is hidden, you might have to highlight to see what is written.

Frances, you are right. I was actually kibitzing this hand and in fact the South hand holder thought for a while over 1NT before bidding 2C. I guess the reasoning was 1NTX would be most likely run out to 2D anyway, so it might be better to describe the hand with 2C.

[NickRW]

Trumpace, on May 14 2008, 09:54 PM, said:

NickRW, please also read andy_h's post. It is hidden, you might have to highlight to see what is written.

Ah, I thought that was a blank reply. Not used to this 'hidden' thing.

But if righty has KJx and takes the first spade high and switches to hearts, then, when you lead to your ace righty rises with the J, if you duck again he has a spade to exit with. And if you don't duck, lefty still has the queen and a cashing heart. That still looks like 5 losers to me.

Nick

[Trumpace]

NickRW, on May 14 2008, 05:42 PM, said:

Trumpace, on May 14 2008, 09:54 PM, said:

NickRW, please also read andy_h's post. It is hidden, you might have to highlight to see what is written.

Ah, I thought that was a blank reply. Not used to this 'hidden' thing.

But if righty has KJx and takes the first spade high and switches to hearts, then, when you lead to your ace righty rises with the J, if you duck again he has a spade to exit with. And if you don't duck, lefty still has the queen and a cashing heart. That still looks like 5 losers to me.

Nick

He has a spade to exit, but then your 4th spade in dummy is good. Thankfully, you have the ♣8 as an entry to cash it.

But if RHO has KJx, and puts up J on the second round, and you duck, LHO can overtake with the Q and cash the setting heart.