Jlall, on May 7 2008, 02:39 PM, said:
I really think that declarer has AKQ8x of clubs a lot. Of course with AKx opp 9x it's free to play the 9 but people never do that. Also, if this was one of the people who did do stuff like that you would know it (it becomes obvious during a match when declarer will play random spot cards from dummy to confuse you at trick 1).
Given all of that I think a diamond is stand out. A good thing about playing a diamond is it looks like you're underleading the ace not the queen so he will misguess a lot if possible.
Maybe I should have mentioned that partner really really hates leading low doubletons and almost never would.
This is the full layout:
As justin points out, a low diamond is probably your best chance of beating the contract as that does tend to be away from the ace in this position.
My partner had this hand, and he also considered playing a spade - he thought that if declarer knew he had no spade loser he would just be on the diamond guess and might go wrong, but if the diamond suit was (say) Jx opposite K1098x then he may just play for the DQ onside because it avoids any chance of a spade loser.
At the table he went passive, and declarer got the suit right on the basis I might have led a diamond from the queen but not from the ace.
1NT P 2♦ P
2♥ P 4♥ all pass