[babalu1997]

In the deal below, our table was the only one to pass out this hand.

Now, playing weak no trumps, i can open most of these hands, except when they have a singleton major, ie 12-14 hcp, 2 quick tricks, i open 1nt.

when playing 15-17 no trumps, i only open 1 minor, if the hand has 3 quick tricks or 2.5 quick tricks and 2 4 card majors.

I was west below, i passed. We wwre the only table to passout. We scored +1.6 imp.
the world did not end.

Two clubs down 2 or 3 were losses of 6 imps, the one tbale the opened weak no trump scored +4.6 imps.

My partner did remark that i passed with "14 points".
Because people keep saying that i lose matchpoints or imps by not opening these hands. I have kept tracke of them since last year, about 160 of them, some contributed by others who also pass heavy-- the average score is 56 percent. that is above average.

In the example below, i could have lost 7 imps or agined 4.

I kept my trap shut and made a positive score.

this is such any time partner has a weak hand, because if he opens, We have game!!!

I know all will disagree, and the experts don play like that.

but, guess what, the WCs neither partner with me, nor play as my opp. so no big loss

Scoring: IMP

---

[jdonn]

Your partner had 7 of the missing 26 points (about 20% less than expected), and the opponents had an 8 card spade fit, with their only finesse onside. Well done on your 1.6 imps.

[han]

What do you want? It's bad bridge. There.

[matmat]

glad to see someone has performed a scientifically and statistically complete and carefully designed study of the 4th seat passout. Thanks!

[Trumpace]

babalu1997, on May 3 2008, 10:26 PM, said:

<snip>


Because people keep saying that i lose matchpoints or imps by not opening these hands. I have kept tracke of them since last year, about 160 of them, some contributed by others who also pass heavy-- the average score is 56 percent.  that is above average.

<snip>

Well, you have convinced me: you are a Result Merchant.

Did you use the IMP score you got when you played the hands in Main Bridge Club on BBO? That itself is sufficient grounds (IMO) to dismiss any analysis you have done.

[jillybean]

babalu1997, on May 3 2008, 08:26 PM, said:

<snip>
when playing 15-17 no trumps, i only open 1 minor, if the hand has 3 quick tricks or 2.5 quick tricks and 2 4 card majors.
<snip>

Your thinking could be flawed here. Quick tricks are meant as a guide when deciding to open light point count hands. ie 11/flat 12 Not 14 point monsters.

[EricK]

I wouldn't be overly surprised if a large carefully controlled study did show that passing weak balanced hands without a 4 card major scored better than opening them 1m. Then again I wouldn't be too surprised if it turned out to be the other way. In many ways 1m makes it easier for opponents to find their major fits (as the standards for a 1M overcall are lower than for a 1M opening, and standards for a take out double are lower than for an opening of any sort), so if the hand is a partscore battle, keeping silent might be the best approach.

[rogerclee]

I agree wholeheartedly with your well-thought analysis.

[rogerclee]

EricK, on May 4 2008, 12:42 AM, said:

I wouldn't be overly surprised if a large carefully controlled study did show that passing weak balanced hands without a 4 card major scored better than opening them 1m.

I would be 100% surprised if someone establishes that routinely passing balanced 14-counts (or 13-counts, or even passing good balanced 12-counts) is winning bridge. Unless you define bringing "PO" back to your teammates' -600 is winning bridge.

[P_Marlowe]

babalu1997, on May 3 2008, 10:26 PM, said:

<snip>
I know all will disagree, and the experts don play like that.

but, guess what, the WCs neither partner with me, nor play as my opp. so no big loss
<snip>

Hi,

I am usually not advocating, that beginners / intermediates
should use all tactics advocated by experts / WC players,
there are a lot exoctic treatments out there, which require
a lot of fine tuning.

But I would strongly suggest that you think twice before you
ignore standard advice / practice, which has suvived more
than 30 years, and if you come to the conclusion that you still
can ignore it go back and think again.

The main advice I would like to give you is, ignore the specific
result on a given deal, if you wont do this your game wont improve.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[hotShot]

Edit: Note that the given Hand is in 2nd seat!


If the bidding is p-p-p and 4th seat has 12-14 HCP you will find your partner with

frequency % / HCP seat 2 / Average(HCP seat 2+ HCP seat 4)
 0.62270 / 4 / 18.0000 
 2.35378 / 5 / 18.6441 
 6.01367 / 6 / 19.2697 
 10.87733 /  7 / 20.1665 
 15.87976 / 8 / 21.0761 
 19.51537 / 9 / 22.0108 
 22.10331 / 10 / 22.9744 
 22.63408 / 11 / 23.9439 

About 80% of the time your side has an 21-19 HCP advantage.
About 91% of the time your side has the same or more strength as opps.

Of cause having this advantage does not always mean that you will score plus.
But on the long run, passing is a losing option.

This post has been edited by hotShot: 2008-May-04, 07:57

[helene_t]

Something weird is going on here. 56% on 160 boards is probably significantly better than average. (Standard error is appr. 2.5%).

A deviation of slightly more than 2 SE's could happen by chance but the problem is that most of us would expect the average score to be significantly lower than 50%.

So either there is a flaw in the expert consensus or there is a flaw in the analysis. Obviously a complete analysis should take more factors into account, such as the added inference when you do open and the lack of inference when you pass with a "normal" pass-hand.

This sounds potentially interesting.

[hotShot]

Any form of scoring, is depended on the strength of the field.

Obviously the sequence p-p-p-something indicates that all hands are at least semi-balanced, so fits with more than 8 combined cards are unlikely.
An advantage of 2 HCP means that you can probably make about 1 trick more than your opponents. So you need to find your fit at the 1-level, the 2-level might already be to high. There is little margin for play errors, without much information from the bidding.
56% just means you managed to do a little better than the average player in the field.

[TimG]

matmat, on May 3 2008, 10:59 PM, said:

glad to see someone has performed a scientifically and statistically complete and carefully designed study of the 4th seat passout. Thanks!

In the example provided, the 14 HCP hand is in 2nd seat.

[babalu1997]

hotShot, on May 4 2008, 07:57 AM, said:

Any form of scoring, is depended on the strength of the field.

thanks, this is what I am trying to convey.

1. I did not say that my tracking of the hand is a scientific study, it is not.
2. What i tried to say is that, in the field that I play, it scores consistently better than average, so I do it.
3. While it is true that expert players can go around making 3NT on 18 hcp, that is not true for me. In those imp team matches the experts can sit there for half and hour pondering card combinations, onçine, they now play 6 minute or even 5 minute board and the director and opps are breathing down my throat.

And I also disagree that my play will not get better, it will get better as the opportunity arises.

I save my energy for bidding dubious 3nt in competition and making 96 percent only because the opps rise with their high cards at the wrong time, toss their winner little x's at a perplexed declarer. That will not make me a better player either, but that is the field in which i play.

[Winstonm]

It is encouraging to see someone think and use his own judgement rather than rely on bidding "rules" that is so often seen: "But partner, I HAD to do so-and-so, I had XYZ points!"

Perhaps down the line you will see more value in opening this hand.

[hotShot]

About 15.4% of all hands dealer has less than 12 HCP and 2nd seat holds 12-14 HCP.

Only in 18.5% of these deals 4th seat holds 0-6 HCP.
In 18% of these deals 4th seat will have 7-8 HCP.
The average strength of the 4th seat is 9.8 HCP.
The average combined strength is 22.75 HCP
In about 72.4% of these 2nd and 4th seat have combined 21+ HCP.
In about 62.6% of these 2nd and 4th seat have combined 22+ HCP.

47.8% have 1 ace.
41.6% have 2 aces.
3.7% have 3 aces.

[Vilgan]

Wasn't sure if you played weak NT or not.

If so:

good pass, as you clearly have no source of tricks. Also no need to prevent opps from finding out about a 4-4 major suit fit.

If not:

Brilliant pass

Again, no source of any tricks

And you definitely don't want a club lead if you are defending

Also seems unlikely that if partner has a good hand.. that you will ever convince him after passing that you have a pretty decent 14 points. Personally... I would rather just open the hand rather than explain to my partner why we missed our 6 club or 6 diamonds or whatever or why everyone else found the "killing" club lead on defense.