[Al_U_Card]

So, what are the chances that Iran will become an issue and require drastic measures by the administration?

McCain is elected....0-5% (he is pretty much a "party" guy)

Hil-Billie are elected....5-45% (depends on how much "gumption" she shows)

Obama is elected (what?!!? How could Diebold let us down like that!)...100%

and martial law will be declared by Bush due to the national emergency caused by the imminent threat to the nation's security from Iran's terrorist sponsored potential radiological attack. (Why else would they need nuclear material?)

Also, the inauguration will be postponed during the "hostilities" and the bill of rights suspended until further notice.

Sweet dreams...

[PassedOut]

Seriously, I don't think they would even try to get away with that.

[Al_U_Card]

Okay, I'm game.

What WOULD they try to get away with?

[Gerben42]

Huh? You are making a ridiculous suggestion and you know it. I think the chance of Iran becoming a nucluar issue within a year is < 1%.

[Al_U_Card]

Hi Gerben

Without prejudice, I see no difference (nor value) in either of our conjectures as they are purely based on our appreciation of reality as we perceive it. Mine just happens to be somewhat more draconian and definitive than yours.

btw, so you do feel that there is a "chance" of it happening then?

[Gerben42]

My field of work is PSA (probabilistic safety analysis), so "<1%" means:

"No way this is going to happen, but we aren't allowed to write 0 in a PSA."

You never know, but I fail to see how Iran would suddenly change its strategy of just ignoring the IAEA, the UN and especially the USA.

[Al_U_Card]

Understood.

OTOH, It has little to do with Iran and everything to do with the current administration. Be it North Korea or Iran or whoever......they need only build up their "case" and then act on their "suspicions" just like Iraq and WMD etc. etc.

Have we learned nothing from their past actions?

[PassedOut]

Al_U_Card, on Apr 22 2008, 08:59 AM, said:

Okay, I'm game.

What WOULD they try to get away with?

They will go all out to trash McCain's opponent in every way possible. They will go all out to buy as many seats in congress as possible.

If they lose, they will say that the opposition "lost Iraq" and is to blame for all the fallout from Bush's stupidity. No matter what happens now, we are in for an ugly time of it.

Dwight Eisenhower saw what was happening and warned the US about it. People did not listen, and we are paying a terrible price. We need to reread Thomas Jefferson.

[luke warm]

PassedOut, on Apr 22 2008, 10:59 AM, said:

We need to reread Thomas Jefferson.

which parts?

[kenberg]

Except for the Declaration of Independence, I would have to read Thomas Jefferson before I could reread him. But back to Iran. We could all place our bets. I believe:

1. Iran intends to become a local nuclear power. By this I mean they intend to have the capacity to wipe out small nearby states.

2. Israel will not allow this to happen. This I regard as a certainty. We regard a nuclear Iran as a problem. Israel would regard it, correctly, as life-threatening.

3. Israel cannot prevent Iran from developing this capacity without employing its own nuclear arsenal.

4. I do not believe we can prevent this chain of events from unfolding. Who wins the American election will not matter.

5. I have no idea what happens after that. I doubt it will be good.

[Hanoi5]

I believe a terrorist attack will occur before the elections and McCain will win. Whatever happens next beats me.