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One Hand Two Judgements How much do you bid?

#1 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 16:19

Scoring: MP

(Pass) Pass (1) Dbl
(Pass) ?


1. Does anyone think we are worth more than 2?

2. Say you bid 2 ...

... the auction continues

(Pass) Pass (1) Dbl
(Pass) 2 (Pass) 4
(Pass) ?

Do we bid some more now?
Wayne Burrows

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Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#2 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 16:27

Double Negative
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#3 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 16:28

Maximum 2 bid, and I don't think bidding over 4 is possible unless you are inconsistent. Partner could have cuebid before raising if he wanted, this 4 bid is often taking a bit of a chance.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#4 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 16:29

I think I would bid 3 although it's close. Having bid 2, only Futile Willy would bid over 4.
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#5 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 16:33

I would have bid 3, but 2 is not terrible.

No, I would not go to the 5 level now, so pass. I don't like to force partner to choose between playing 2 and playing 6 on these auctions.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#6 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 16:33

Ditto Josh.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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#7 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 16:47

I would bid 3, and bidding over 4 is wow-bad.

I am a little paranoid about my stiff spade though, but if partner is strong and balanced, he can just bid 3N. If he has a strong 1-suiter, my hand is definitely good enough to this this way.

From 4, I assume partner is something like 19-20 balanced with 4 hearts.
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#8 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 16:52

2 or 3 is fine with me but bidding over 4 is not since opener may be stretching a bit.
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#9 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 17:50

2 for starters.

What's so inconsistent about bidding only 2 and making a move past 4?

Pard has made a value bid and we have an absolute max.
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#10 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 17:56

No/No
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#11 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 18:04

pclayton, on Apr 22 2008, 06:50 PM, said:

2 for starters.

What's so inconsistent about bidding only 2 and making a move past 4?

Pard has made a value bid and we have an absolute max.

His value bid is not supposed to be enough for slam opposite our max. There was plenty of room to explore if he thought slam was possible opposite a maximum 2 bid. Your comment could be applied to the auction 1 2 4 as well.
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#12 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 18:36

Maximum 2 bid. 3 is an overbid, but not a large one.

Clear pass over 4. Any bid over 4 would be a breach of partnership discipline.
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#13 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 18:57

jdonn, on Apr 22 2008, 04:04 PM, said:

pclayton, on Apr 22 2008, 06:50 PM, said:

2 for starters.

What's so inconsistent about bidding only 2 and making a move past 4?

Pard has made a value bid and we have an absolute max.

His value bid is not supposed to be enough for slam opposite our max. There was plenty of room to explore if he thought slam was possible opposite a maximum 2 bid. Your comment could be applied to the auction 1 2 4 as well.

Construct a hand suitable for 4 please Josh.
"Phil" on BBO
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#14 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 19:32

Everyone agrees with me but I take the flak as usual ;)

Kx AKJxxx AK Qxx

I actually don't think it need be quite that good, as I said before it's usually taking a chance that partner isn't 100% broke.

Can I ask what part of my last post you dispute?
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#15 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 20:14

2, and then bidding after 4, has no meaning. So, it seems to me that the only sane question is whether 2 was the right bid. To think of anything but passing 4 means that you disagree with 2, which is fine -- stand by that -- or that that you think partner lacks vision for his 4 call.

What about 2? It would have been nice to play mini-lebensohl here (1NT as "lebensohl," or herbert negative). That would make a 2 call include this hand. Instead, we are playing an approach where we have two calls, eac of which has to carry too much water. In that scenario, it is good to have a general approach.

It would also be nice to have a two-way takeout approach, such as 1NT as a weak takeout, such that a double shows real values. But, that's another discussion. We are stuck with what we have.

It is also worth noting that problems like this are more easily solved if the takeout double requires sound values, especially in relation to the degree to which the double forces the two-level. When making light takeout doubles, these hands are sacrificed, or at least negatively impacted.

At IMP scoring, this would be easy for me -- 3. Doubling 1 opposite a passed hand at IMP scoring serves up too little potential gain if the double is weak, and it sacrifices too much in potential gain if Advancer can rely on actual values.

My love for IMP bidding may have untoward impact on my thinking here, or at least my twisted opinion of effective IMP bidding (LOL), but my opinion is that one should not double a third-seat 1 opening unless one is prepared to have partner bid 3, specifically hearts, with a hand like this. "Prepared" could mean "prepared to laugh it off if sawed off." But, prepared. So, I would bid 3 with this hand.

Having failed to bid what I consider to be the correct bid, I'm not rescuing myself. The harm from insanity late in the auction is too costly on the partnership.
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#16 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 20:15

Scoring: MP

(Pass) Pass (1) Dbl
(Pass) 2 (Pass) 4
(Pass) Pass (Pass)


As you can see slam is pretty reasonable. Trumps 4-0 or diamonds 4-1 will break it. Actually you will survive some of the 4-1 diamond breaks - stiff ace or singleton in the hand not on lead.

So who didn't bid enough? Does this convince you to not bid 2 or that bidding on over 4 might be reasonable or should North do something other than 4?
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#17 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 20:17

Cascade, on Apr 22 2008, 09:15 PM, said:

Scoring: MP

(Pass) Pass (1) Dbl
(Pass) 2 (Pass) 4
(Pass) Pass (Pass)


As you can see slam is pretty reasonable.  Trumps 4-0 or diamonds 4-1 will break it.  Actually you will survive some of the 4-1 diamond breaks - stiff ace or singleton in the hand not on lead.

So who didn't bid enough?  Does this convince you to not bid 2 or that bidding on over 4 might be reasonable or should North do something other than 4?

Why not 2s over 2h? Does it not show a bigger hand than 4h?
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#18 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 20:20

Cascade, on Apr 22 2008, 09:15 PM, said:

So who didn't bid enough?  Does this convince you to not bid 2 or that bidding on over 4 might be reasonable or should North do something other than 4?

I think north should cuebid but 4 is not the worst bid ever. It's not hard to imagine though that Qxxxx and an ace and you are getting veeeeeery close to slam, so 4 is a bit lazy.

Another reason to cuebid - maybe find 6 if south has xx Qxxxx Axxx xx or so?
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#19 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 20:29

3 by South would do it.

That said, Josh has provided a clear 2 call where slam makes. Plus, if your style is such that the South hand is possible, slam is real likely. A 2 call should do the trick.

Question, though.

P-P-1-X-
P-2-P-2-
P-3?

This seems right to me, but I'm not sure. Any thoughts?
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#20 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-April-22, 21:21

I don't particularly take issue with it Josh, except that it seems odd that a hand that wants to bid game opposite a near bust can't cooperate in a slam try.

Since our 2 call can be made on a yarborough, I tend to think that a 4 call by pard really shows the goods. I think some examples would be hands like:

1. AQxx, AKxxx, Ax, Kx
2. KQxx, AKxxx, Axx, x
3. KJx, AKxxx, AQ, Kxx

Would you be making a slam try over a 2 call with any of these hands? On #2, they need to find the spade duck to break 6, but otherwise slam is pretty good on the others.

By the way, with your example, the opponents are mighty quiet with 10 spades.
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