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♠ xxx
♥ AKQxxx
♦ KQx
♣ J
Partner opens 3NT first seat white/white, MPs.
3NT - pass - ?
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Opposite a Gambling 3NT...
#1
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Posted 2008-April-13, 16:50
#2
- - - T98765432 AQT8
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Posted 2008-April-13, 16:56
4♣, I'm not that optimistic. I would specifically need short spades to make anything more, really. 4♥ would not be pretty if they switch to a club before losing the lead.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#3
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Posted 2008-April-13, 17:10
4♥, I only lose to 4♣ if 4♥ is down and 4♣ makes.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#4
- Brain Farts and Actual Farts Increasing with Age
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Posted 2008-April-13, 19:31
cherdano, on Apr 13 2008, 06:10 PM, said:
4♥, I only lose to 4♣ if 4♥ is down and 4♣ makes.
That's not exactly true. I think 4♥-2 is worse than 4♣-1 at MP, but maybe the scoring changed somewhere...
4♣ for me.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."
-P.J. Painter.
-P.J. Painter.
#5
- mmm Duvel
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Posted 2008-April-14, 01:17
If p can have a void, I'd start with 4♦ asking his shortness. Otherwise 4♥.
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#6
- World International Master without a clue
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Posted 2008-April-14, 03:24
4♣ I give up.
#7
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Posted 2008-April-14, 03:31
Hi,
I would go with 4H.
With kind regards
Marlowe
I would go with 4H.
With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
#8
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Posted 2008-April-14, 05:17
I'm in a bit of a simulation addiction, so I'll go with a "simulate first, ask questions later" approach. After 24678 hands we get average suit lengths
spades: 1.82041
hearts: 1.67899
diamonds: 2.17761
clubs: 7.323
hcp: 9.88553
Seems like pard is favourite to have 2 hearts, a stray jack and doubleton spade. These are the conditions for a FOUR HEARTS bid, which is something I would probably never do without the simulation.
Of course, if pard is justin, who is known for SOLID gambling bids, we'll have 8 clubs, in which case the results after 6968 hands are
spades: 1.5508
hearts: 1.44403
diamonds: 1.85491
clubs: 8.15026
hcp: 9.78875
pointing at a 5♣ contract. KEWL.
spades: 1.82041
hearts: 1.67899
diamonds: 2.17761
clubs: 7.323
hcp: 9.88553
Seems like pard is favourite to have 2 hearts, a stray jack and doubleton spade. These are the conditions for a FOUR HEARTS bid, which is something I would probably never do without the simulation.
Of course, if pard is justin, who is known for SOLID gambling bids, we'll have 8 clubs, in which case the results after 6968 hands are
spades: 1.5508
hearts: 1.44403
diamonds: 1.85491
clubs: 8.15026
hcp: 9.78875
pointing at a 5♣ contract. KEWL.
#9
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Posted 2008-April-14, 09:47
whereagles, on Apr 14 2008, 06:17 AM, said:
I'm in a bit of a simulation addiction, so I'll go with a "simulate first, ask questions later" approach. After 24678 hands we get average suit lengths
spades: 1.82041
hearts: 1.67899
diamonds: 2.17761
clubs: 7.323
hcp: 9.88553
Seems like pard is favourite to have 2 hearts, a stray jack and doubleton spade. These are the conditions for a FOUR HEARTS bid, which is something I would probably never do without the simulation.
Of course, if pard is justin, who is known for SOLID gambling bids, we'll have 8 clubs, in which case the results after 6968 hands are
spades: 1.5508
hearts: 1.44403
diamonds: 1.85491
clubs: 8.15026
hcp: 9.78875
pointing at a 5♣ contract. KEWL.
spades: 1.82041
hearts: 1.67899
diamonds: 2.17761
clubs: 7.323
hcp: 9.88553
Seems like pard is favourite to have 2 hearts, a stray jack and doubleton spade. These are the conditions for a FOUR HEARTS bid, which is something I would probably never do without the simulation.
Of course, if pard is justin, who is known for SOLID gambling bids, we'll have 8 clubs, in which case the results after 6968 hands are
spades: 1.5508
hearts: 1.44403
diamonds: 1.85491
clubs: 8.15026
hcp: 9.78875
pointing at a 5♣ contract. KEWL.
If you don't mind, what were the exact amount of hands where he had each amount of hearts?
Good point by the way that his expected diamond length is greater than spade length, due to our diamond honors (he can't have spade honors so there are more diamonds out he can have.)
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#10
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Posted 2008-April-14, 10:19
jdonn, on Apr 14 2008, 03:47 PM, said:
If you don't mind, what were the exact amount of hands where he had each amount of hearts?
I had to rerun simulation, so slight changes expected. Outcome is
spades: 1.81793
hearts: 1.69076
diamonds: 2.17485
clubs: 7.31645
pard has 0 hearts: 0.100569 <-- reads: 10.0569%, same for below
pard has 1 hearts: 0.338168
pard has 2 hearts: 0.366856
pard has 3 hearts: 0.161191
pard has 4 hearts: 0.0307717
pard has 5 hearts: 0.00244411
pard has heart jack: 0.206226
Generated 10000000 hands
Produced 24958 hands
For the picky guys: assumptions are pard has ♣AKQ 7th, 8th or 9th and at most 11 hcp (side queen possible, no further restrictions on shape). I did NOT bother to take out of the simulation stuff like 75s or 76s. Sue me
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