[jahol]

IMPs, both vulnerable, aggresive opponents, you have
Qx---KQx---xxx---Jxxxx

and the bidding (Standard American, 2/1 is 10+) was

LHO----P----RHO----YOU
..................1S........P
2H.......P......3D.......P
4S.......P......4NT......P
5H.......P......6S........P
P.........P

5H = 2 key values from five for spades, without trumph queen. What is your first lead?

(There is NO NEED to think that this is a kind of special problem. I am just interested in your (statistically best) lead at the table).

[Apollo81]

I'd lead ♥K, lacking any other stellar options.

[gnasher]

♥K is necessary only if RHO has ♥xx, dummy has some potential club winners to throw hearts on, and partner has a club trick. To me it seems more likely that HK will make declarer's life easy for him, perhaps saving him a guess, either about which suit to play on or about how to play the heart suit. I lead a club.

[jdonn]

gnasher, on Mar 31 2008, 04:37 PM, said:

♥K is necessary only if RHO has ♥xx, dummy has some potential club winners to throw hearts on, and partner has a club trick. To me it seems more likely that HK will make declarer's life easy for him, perhaps saving him a guess, either about which suit to play on or about how to play the heart suit. I lead a club.

Or we are going to score a trump trick?

Or (gasp!) partner has the ace of hearts?

[mikeh]

Ask rho what the 5♥ response means (preferably by asking... does it say anything about the trump Queen?), then lead the heart King. That way, you can be sure of two things:

1. You will score your spade Q unless the opps have a 10 card fit (or better)

2. You will be banned shortly thereafter

Seriously, my sense is that the heart K is far more likely to work than any other lead. We need less for the heart K to work than for any other lead.

[gnasher]

I don't understand. Why does the fact that we may have a trump trick argue for a heart lead?

[jdonn]

gnasher, on Mar 31 2008, 06:22 PM, said:

I don't understand. Why does the fact that we may have a trump trick argue for a heart lead?

Because 1+1=2

[matmat]

jdonn, on Mar 31 2008, 06:43 PM, said:

gnasher, on Mar 31 2008, 06:22 PM, said:

I don't understand.  Why does the fact that we may have a trump trick argue for a heart lead?

Because 1+1=2

that's the fancy new math, josh.

[andy_h]

Would the HK suggest a bit more that we have the SQ?

[Yogeshdg]

andy_h, on Mar 31 2008, 08:47 PM, said:

Would the HK suggest a bit more that we have the SQ?

Andy why should the ♥king suggest the ♠queen? Mate think thats overdoing the thinking a bit.
If you are wanting to know how to finesse correctly in the trump suit for the Queen drawing inference from ♥k isnt going to help. I might lead ♥K even without the queen ♠ on a different day. Are you happy to play me for the queen of ♠ now?

My lead is ♣ not k♥.

[gnasher]

jdonn, on Apr 1 2008, 12:43 AM, said:

gnasher, on Mar 31 2008, 06:22 PM, said:

I don't understand.  Why does the fact that we may have a trump trick argue for a heart lead?

Because 1+1=2

Thanks for that contribution to the discussion. You obviously put a great deal of thought into it.

If leading a heart will get us a heart trick and a trump trick, under what circumstances will not leading a heart mean that we don't get a heart trick and a trump trick?