[Wackojack]

Scoring: IMP

Contract 4S by North after South opens 1D

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This was a hand that I was kibbing, at a world class table. Declarer went down and admitted to bad play. From my perpective looking up to these greats, I think it was probably just carelessness. But I am interested if anyone would do the same as he did.

East leads ♦9 to South's Queen, with West following suit with the 2. How are you going to play the trump suit?

[papa hall]

Q of ♠ intending to double-finesse

[Codo]

Yes Q of ♠ and finesse later if this had lost.

Wins whenever West hast one or more honours.

The popular Ace and low to the queen fails here and has worse odds, because you lose two tricks if has this layout (Jxx with east).

[Halo]

Quite close in spades if you are reading the diamonds as 52.

But playing the Queen looks odd on the second round, since we have now lost to KJxx in East. Maybe Ace and run the ten is slightly better than the double finesse. Not sure overall - diamond might be a singleton.

[cherdano]

Win ♦J, spade 2 to the 8.

[papa hall]

Sorry Halo but you have to check your statistics. The double finesse is the superior play with this holding. Sure it loses to KJxx in E, but playing the ace surely isn't the best play if W holds those cards . The rest of the analyses is too much forme...you just have to believe me

[jtfanclub]

What is the advantage to playing the Q♠ in contrast to running the nine the first time?

Assume that losing one or no spades is equivalent, isn't factoring for the singleton king in East worth doing?

[Halo]

papa hall, on Mar 28 2008, 10:46 AM, said:

Sorry Halo but you have to check your statistics. The double finesse is the superior play with this holding. Sure it loses to KJxx in E, but playing the ace surely isn't the best play if W holds those cards . The rest of the analyses is too much forme...you just have to believe me

I'm happy to be persuaded, but not I fear to take it on trust.

My spade play is successful whenever East has Jack of spades - about 65% if we assume diamonds 52.

I also make when East has Kx of spades - around 10%.

Icing on the cake - I'm OK when East has K singleton spade (unlikely though that is).

I don't believe playing through West twice is still 76% after the diamond lead.

[ArtK78]

The correct play of the spade suit in a vacuum is A and another.

That said, the correct play of the spade suit on this hand depends what you read into the opening lead. If you fear it is from a doubleton, then there are conflicting issues: One is that the opening leader, who is short in diamonds, tends to have length in spades. The other is that you want to draw as many trumps as quickly as possible.

You cannot win if the opening lead is a doubleton and RHO has Kx of spades. If LHO has Kxx of spades and a doubleton diamond, then clearly the ♠Q lead from hand will fail, as will anything other than A and another.

However, if spades are 3-2 and LHO has Kxx, A and another will work. And when LHO does not have a doubleton diamond, A and another will work in most cases.

So, I believe that A and another spade is best on the hand. You just have to have your guessing shoes on for the second round of the suit.

Undiscussed is whether you should play either opponent for 4 spades. In that case, leading the Q from hand is probably best, as it works against all 4 card holdings in LHO's hand except when RHO has singleton K. The lead of the Q from hand will be a spectacular failure against KJxx in RHO's hand, but if you are right about short diamonds on your left, then it is far more likely that there are 4 spades on your left.

[hatchett]

Quote

The correct play of the spade suit in a vacuum is A and another.

You sure? Low to the Ten feels like the 'vacuum' play.

[Cascade]

I am pretty sure low to the ten is right on the first round.

I am certain leading the queen is wrong. You would feel very sick if west showed out.

[effervesce]

Cascade, on Mar 28 2008, 04:07 PM, said:

I am pretty sure low to the ten is right on the first round.

I am certain leading the queen is wrong. You would feel very sick if west showed out.

I think low to 10 and running the Q are similar plays. The latter picks up KJxx on one side, low to the 10 on the other side. Running the Q picks up J singleton for no loser, however, and is thus (in a vacuum) slightly superior to finessing the 10.

[jdonn]

effervesce, on Mar 28 2008, 06:12 PM, said:

I think low to 10 and running the Q are similar plays. The latter picks up KJxx on one side, low to the 10 on the other side. Running the Q picks up J singleton for no loser, however, and is thus (in a vacuum) slightly superior to finessing the 10.

Huh? They both pick up KJxx on the same side and lose to KJxx on the same side. And the time Q picks up singleton jack on the right is offset by the time low toward the ten picks up singleton king on the left. Meanwhile leading the queen is, as Cascade said, heartbreaking if the next player shows out, which seems to be the deciding factor that proves low to the ten first is better.

[effervesce]

jdonn, on Mar 28 2008, 06:28 PM, said:

effervesce, on Mar 28 2008, 06:12 PM, said:

I think low to 10 and running the Q are similar plays. The latter picks up KJxx on one side, low to the 10 on the other side. Running the Q picks up J singleton for no loser, however, and is thus (in a vacuum) slightly superior to finessing the 10.

Huh? They both pick up KJxx on the same side and lose to KJxx on the same side. And the time Q picks up singleton jack on the right is offset by the time low toward the ten picks up singleton king on the left. Meanwhile leading the queen is, as Cascade said, heartbreaking if the next player shows out, which seems to be the deciding factor that proves low to the ten first is better.

Sorry you are correct.