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What say you? (I got this one wrong) What is your score expectation?

#1 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-March-25, 05:44

Scoring: IMP

Pass Pass 1 Dbl
1 4 4 Pass
Pass ?


Supplementary question:
Would you have bid differently earlier in the auction? Some sort of natural system (we were playing basic Acol) with standard weak twos.
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

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Posted 2008-March-25, 05:58

Not really sure what the right lead is, I guess I'd go with the ace of hearts and look around. Agree with my 4H bid.
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#3 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2008-March-25, 06:44

4 HEart was fine, but now I have no big hopes to beat the contract.

If I must guess, I would give dummy a 3163 hand, knowing that his pd will bid 1 Spade just with 5 of them. (?)
Declarer may have a 5341 and there is no way to kill the beast.

But the risk to fail misserably in 5 Heart is even bigger, so this is a lead problem at the end.

I go with the ace of hearts too. I think that we must cash our tricks now and a club lead is too dangerous for me.

I might lead a low club if we play 3./5. so that pd can figure out when he must cash a second club or not, but with 2./4. or attitude leads, I lead the ace.
Kind Regards

Roland


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More system is not the answer...
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#4 User is offline   jtfanclub 

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Posted 2008-March-25, 08:19

I would lead a diamond....this looks like a massive double-double to me so I seriously doubt we can set it without any diamond tricks. Partner might have the ace of diamonds, he might have the ace of spades, the horse might learn to talk.

I suspect that most of the time this will end up costing us an overtrick, but I don't think that it'll ever cost us a set.

But then, that's why I'm not an expert.
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#5 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2008-March-25, 10:12

Who said I was on lead?

It appears to me the question is do I now pass, double or take some other action.

Its probably wrong, but I think I am bidding 5C.
Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
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#6 User is online   mikeh 

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Posted 2008-March-25, 10:56

I agree with the 4 bid: the auction makes the 4 call a disappointing surprise... partner will usually have enough in spades, for the double, that LHO won't be bidding 4 over 4.

As it is, I am not the least bit certain that we are beating this, but I put LHO under pressure, so I am not the least bit certain that we aren't!

So I am NOT saving. I can't have it both ways: bid game to put pressure on them and, when they make a call, panic and assume they went right. Partner could be sitting there with, say, A10x in spades and be unable to double because he doesn't know about our defence.

There is no way to know what lead will work out, but we can be morally sure that the heart Ace will probably cash and that it is unlikely to set up any useful tricks for declarer, and we will know more at trick 2, especially with help from partner. Of course, what we will know may be (but probably won't be) that we should have led something else :rolleyes:
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#7 User is offline   skjaeran 

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Posted 2008-March-25, 15:25

bid_em_up, on Mar 25 2008, 05:12 PM, said:

Who said I was on lead?

It appears to me the question is do I now pass, double or take some other action.

Its probably wrong, but I think I am bidding 5C.

If you were planning to take another bid here 4 was the wrong bid last round. You've put pressure on opps to make them guess - don't start guessing yourself.

Agree with Justin and Mike to lead A.
Kind regards,
Harald
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#8 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-March-25, 15:49

Depending on my opponents I would double, not because I'm truly worth it but just because I see this particular bid grossly overbid quite often, which my general strength seems to confirm. They could even be on a 4-3, people do make this bid with 3. Then ace of hearts lead seems fine.
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#9 User is offline   gerry 

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Posted 2008-March-25, 15:52

Trying to resist a strong urge to double, but partner presumambly has some balanced piece of cheese. However the jack means we nearly always have a trump trick and sometimes two.

Resist and lead the A.
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#10 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-March-25, 17:00

skaeran, on Mar 26 2008, 10:25 AM, said:

bid_em_up, on Mar 25 2008, 05:12 PM, said:

Who said I was on lead?

It appears to me the question is do I now pass, double or take some other action.

Its probably wrong, but I think I am bidding 5C.

If you were planning to take another bid here 4 was the wrong bid last round. You've put pressure on opps to make them guess - don't start guessing yourself.

Agree with Justin and Mike to lead A.

I thought I was bidding 4 to make. After partner suggests spades with a double and I have Jx I am not anticipating a 4 bid.
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#11 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 10:01

skaeran, on Mar 25 2008, 04:25 PM, said:

bid_em_up, on Mar 25 2008, 05:12 PM, said:

Who said I was on lead?

It appears to me the question is do I now pass, double or take some other action.

Its probably wrong, but I think I am bidding 5C.

If you were planning to take another bid here 4 was the wrong bid last round. You've put pressure on opps to make them guess - don't start guessing yourself.

The problem says:

Pass Pass (1) Dbl
(1♠) 4♥ (4♠) Pass
Pass ?

That question mark implies "What do I bid now?" It does not ask "What do I lead now?"

If you want to pass and lead the heart A, thats fine, say so. But all I have seen so far is everybody stating what they would lead. Not what they would bid, which does not answer the question as given.

Not real sure what you think the "right" bid was last round if I was planning on taking another bid now, feel free to elaborate, though. 4H is not a "pressure bid" in this sequence. We are vul. vs. vul., I should have some expectation of making when the opponents have shown nothing more than a 1/1 sequence. We bid 4H to play and make, and had no reason to believe that the opponents would be bidding 4S over us when we bid it (5D maybe, but not 4S).

I am not "guessing" myself. I am showing my second suit which is previously undisclosed in the auction. It usually doesnt pay to defend when we have a double fit.
Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
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#12 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 10:03

Agree that you do not need to be a brain surgeon to figure out the bid when you tell your lead, and agree with that bid.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#13 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 10:28

bid_em_up, on Mar 26 2008, 11:01 AM, said:

But all I have seen so far is everybody stating what they would lead. Not what they would bid, which does not answer the question as given.

Sorry, I'll use darker font in my posts from now on.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#14 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 10:34

han, on Mar 26 2008, 05:03 PM, said:

Agree that you do not need to be a brain surgeon

So the growth rate of our synapses is not the problem?
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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#15 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 11:31

jdonn, on Mar 26 2008, 11:28 AM, said:

bid_em_up, on Mar 26 2008, 11:01 AM, said:

But all I have seen so far is everybody stating what they would lead.  Not what they would bid, which does not answer the question as given.

Sorry, I'll use darker font in my posts from now on.

Sorry, I had read skaeran's response and hit reply without reading further.
Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
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#16 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 12:11

I am having a hard time resisting the impulse to double 4. Is it remotely possible that partner has less than 3 spades on this auction?

The only reason I can see for not doubling is that I was a passed hand when partner doubled 1 so partner may have doubled on fewer high cards and just shape. But then he should have 4 spades.

Bidding could be right but I believe we are going plus in 4S. So, like most of the posters, I pass and lead the A.
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#17 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 18:41

I couldn't resist.

It seemed to me that an ace and a king and a singleton and Jx of trumps opposite a takeout double were reasonably defensive.

In addition LHO was shall we say not known for his down the middle bidding.

I perhaps foolishly led the 10 - there is no law against partner having the ace but i appreciate it is against the odds.

The sight of 8-solid diamonds in dummy we can say brought more joy to declarer than my partner. When partner turned up with xxx I learned another way to score 1390.

If you led the A you would at least have saved some overtricks - dummy had 3=1=8=1 and you would have known what to do at trick two.
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#18 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 18:45

1390 in 4S doubled? Sounds like you made a succesful stripe tailed ape double, win 1.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#19 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 19:24

han, on Mar 27 2008, 01:45 PM, said:

1390 in 4S doubled? Sounds like you made a succesful stripe tailed ape double, win 1.

Not with two aces to cash.

Although I did ask my teammate (and wife) if she bid the slam before the score-up.
Wayne Burrows

I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon

#20 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-March-26, 20:24

LOL!
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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