Preempt Decision, the Sequel
#1
Posted 2008-March-27, 01:24
♠AKxxx ♥Kx ♦Kxx ♣xxx
(1♥)-2♣-(3♥)-?
1♥ is 11-15 HCP, 3♥ is preemptive and could be total junk.
#2
Posted 2008-March-27, 01:39
George Carlin
#3
Posted 2008-March-27, 01:46
#4
Posted 2008-March-27, 03:36
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#6
Posted 2008-March-27, 05:12
#8
Posted 2008-March-27, 06:50
#9
Posted 2008-March-27, 07:40
#11
Posted 2008-March-27, 09:05
Not sure what good double will do, if partner can bid 3NT over the double then he should be able to bid it over 3S as well.
- hrothgar
#13
Posted 2008-March-27, 09:22
(1H)-2C-(2H)-2S
Also forcing Nuno?
- hrothgar
#14
Posted 2008-March-27, 09:43
#16
Posted 2008-March-27, 09:53
#17
Posted 2008-March-27, 10:03
#18
Posted 2008-March-27, 10:16
Take the auction 1♥-2♣-3♥.
If you double, a lot of times partner will bid 3NT or something at the four-level. The only time you can stop below game or 4♣ is when partner actually finds a bunch of spades and bids 3♠. But this is actually the most likely time for you to have game, since you actually found a good fit in a major suit. So it seems either most of the times partner bids 3♠ you will end in 4♠, or you're getting a lot of poor results when you double, partner doesn't have spades, and you land too high.
With this in mind, maybe it would be reasonable to play that over double, opener's 3♠ bid is artificial, denying spade length and trying to keep 3NT in play. This helps with a wide range of hands where responder has 4-5♠ and a ♥ stopper and needs to "guess" what to show knowing that the other will be lost forever. The only loss is hands where you actually have a spade fit and want to play exactly three spades.
Anyways, while this is all theoretically interesting I'm not going to just assume partner will be on the same wavelength and bid this way. Without any such agreement, I'll bid 3♠. Sure, partner might raise on doubleton, but I have made game in a 5-2 fit before and there's no reason 4♠ has to be worse than 3NT if this set of events comes to pass.
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
#19
Posted 2008-March-27, 10:20
It has to be forcing, else we have no way of forcing while searching for our best game. While there will be hands on which we'd like to be able to bid '3♠ non-forcing', the benefit of that approach is marginal, and far less than the benefits from playing it forcing. Preempts work.. we can't have it both ways, and we should choose the approach that has the greatest utility overall.
Since slam is not impossible, and game often available, we need to cater to these possibilities far more than trying to hit the right partial, starting at the 3-level.
As for where we end up...this is tough.
3N may work out, but bidding it is unilateral... it usually ends the auction... LHO will certainly be passing 3N anytime he can beat it (Qxx AQJxx xxx Ax as an example) and he isn't likely to save anyway... if he does, he'll be 6-4 or wilder. Now, we can back into 4♠ if lho pulls 3N, but he isn't likely to do so and definitely won't when he can beat it.
3♠ actually doesn't give up on 3N. Of course, the odds are that partner can't bid 3N... but if he does, we know we are in the right spot.
Meanwhile, there are hands on which 4♠ makes and 3N fails, hands on which 4♠ fails (and won't be reached) on which 5♣ makes.
So I think 3♠ is more flexible, compared to the unilateral guess of 3N. I'd rate 3♠ 100, 3N 90 and double 50.
Double, to me, is insane.
Yes, it is values with no clear bid, but it will reach 3N only when partner has a stopper, so that either 3♠ or 3N would work just as well. It will reach spades only when partner holds 4 of them, and then 3♠ works as well or better, and it will never find a 5-3 spade fit... unless we are planning on torturing partner with 4♠ over 4 minor by him. And, if he does pass, are we really going to be happy?
#20
Posted 2008-March-27, 10:22
jdonn, on Mar 27 2008, 08:03 AM, said:
LOL exactly Josh. This is what I said to Roger last night.
3N is such a swingy action but obv can be right. Double is too modern for me.

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