awm, on Apr 3 2008, 08:54 PM, said:
A number of people have claimed that using a cheaper bid to show some particular set of hands is automatically easier to defend. My point is that this simply isn't true.
If my RHO opens 1♠, there are a number of good hands where I have primary spades, and my standard action is to pass. These hands are unusual if RHO is playing five-card majors, somewhat more common if RHO is playing four-card majors especially canape.
The idea is that when I pass with this hand, usually LHO will take a bid. I will get an opportunity to bid my spades (or double something for penalty) later in the auction. If LHO chooses to pass, then partner (who often has spade shortness given my length and RHO's length) has an easy balancing double unless his hand is very weak, and I can pass 1♠X (or double something the opponents bid later, or bid my spades naturally later). If the hand does pass out then opponents are typically playing 1♠ in a poor fit with a bad break, and I can expect at least to go plus by taking them down multiple tricks.
If RHO opens 1♥ showing spades, then a similar pass is much less likely to work out. If the opponents pass the hand out, they are playing 1♥ which could easily be a good contract for them. If 1♥ passes to partner, there is no particular reason that partner is likely to have short hearts and find a balance. In fact it's quite likely that our best fit is in spades (the person passing 1♥ probably has some hearts and not very many spades in order to pass) and finding this fit may be awkward even if partner does find a balance.
Now obviously I do have an extra bid available (1♠) and maybe I should use this extra bid to show a good hand with spades (Josh Sher did some simulation indicating this is probably the most effective use). But this is counter-intuitive and also requires making use of the added bid just to get back to par on this set of hands (actually we may not even reach an average result, since 1♥ may be a better contract for opponents than anything they can reach over 1♠, and "the field" may be defending doubled our way).
Well for the record I found that over TOSR transfer style openings (where you either have 5+ in the implied suit, or 4 and an unbalanced hand, and also with both majors you always show hearts first) that the following 2 defense were roughly equivalent at IMPS (and much better then all the other schemes I looked at):
Defense A:
x=takeout
1 level overcall in the opps suit=natural
other bids normal
and
Defense B:
x=the x-fer suit
1 level overcall in the opps suit=takeout
other bids normal
But I have to note the following things:
B was better at mps, for frequency reasons
At Imps, A was slightly better over a 1D opening showing hearts, and B was slightly better over a 1H opening showing spades, mostly since 1H opening denied holding 4 hearts, so having a heart overcall was more frequent in this case then in the other case (and also showing hearts is more important than showing diamonds).
So note for the record, what I use, and what I recommend is in fact defense B. Whichever you choose will gain on some hands and lose on others, so you will always find hands that you wish you were playing the other method...
Also, if we compare defending against:
a. A natural 1S opening that is potentially canape (5+S, or 4S and a longer minor)
b. The exact same hand types in a 1H opening
Clearly, no matter what defense you use, you get to immediately show 1 extra hand against the x-fer opener. Lets say you are playing defense B and hold:
KQ9xx Axxx Axx x
Over a natural 1S opening you pass for penalties, and then (predictably) here the auction:
1S-P-1N-P
2C(Canape)-?
And you have a perfect x now.
How are things different over a 1H openiong showing spades? Again it goes,
1H-P-1N-P
2C(Canape)-?
So really the issues are that
a. in either auction, responder might pass
b. in either auction the may end up in 2S on a 5-2 fit which you can hit
let me discuss a first:
Playing a canape stype, when does responder pass 1S? You really do not want to end up in a 4-2 fit, so normally:
1. with a balanced hand with 2 card support you usually bid 1N to ensure you are in a 7+ card fit
2. So the most common hand to pass is a weak unbalanced hand with 2-3 card support. Perhaps 2551 or 2461. You might also pass with something like 3442 or 3451 if you want to stay off the 2 level (very weak hand).
3. You would strain not to pass red with a singleton.
Further, if the auction happes to go 1S-P-P-x-
with 4-6 opener will rescue himself
and responder will rescue himself with the 2551 or 2461 type hands. So its hardly clear, you are getting rich from your penalty passes here, they will usually be in a 4-3 fit.
Over x-fer openings there are two styles out there.
In my methods pass shows 5+ cards in the x-fer suit, and a hand inappropriate for a bid (usually unbalanced). This creates some different auctions which might work out well for responder but lets compare the benefits:
If partner is known to have 4+S, and 0-3 hearts and you have no other information about his shape would you rather have the ability to
1. play exactly 1S
2. play exactly 1H
I think you will want to play 1S (and wit will be a winning spot) more often then 1H is. Passing 1H is a pretty random action even if you have 5 hearts and 1 only spade.
Consequently, for the defense, on average you will do better when a 1H x-fer bid is passed around to balancer than when a 1S opener is passed around to balancer. I hope this clear. Yes, when you had KQ9xx x Axxx Axx you are pretty unhappy to hear 1H all pass, but it is to your benefit more often then it is to your detriment.
(some might say if passing is bad for responder why does he pass. Well you pass when you have a higher expectation from passing then from bidding (given system constraints). Your action with the largest expectation might still have a negative expectation).
Finally, lets suppose the opps have a 5-2 fit and you have a penalty pass, and partner has some values. Playing natural opening bids you might defend 1S-x and you might defend 2S-x. Against x-fer openers you always defend 2S-x, since they have no way of stopping in 1S (the point of the methods is to use a 1S response to show strength, not to play).
So, I actually think the defense is better off over a x-fer opener (has one more hand to bid with, and does better when he passes) when it truely is there hand. While you do not do better on every hand, you do better more often then not, and on average. The main reasons to play x-fer openers are constructive reasons, so the x-fer openers gain when its Their hand.
p.s. I did not discuss the more random pass method over x-fer openers (3rd hand passes with all bad hands). Clearly thats nuts red. Personally I think it gives pretty significant negative expectation white as well, but depending on your followups, might be the best option. But the point is, all these random passes have negative expectation, so thats good for the defense....
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