[inquiry]

1!d ... my first and second seat favorable vul preempts are never, ever anywhere close to this good.

[pclayton]

1♦. The magic 3N across from a 12 count and a the ♦A looks very possible.

[awm]

So I ran a bridgebrowser simulation on this. I gave opener in first seat:

♦KQJxxx

Exactly one ace outside the diamond suit (and no other high cards).

6322 or 6331 type pattern.

Opening side NV.

Obviously I could've tried the exact hand but then I wouldn't get enough hits for anything reasonable to happen.

The overall result is that on average, passers get -0.8 IMPs.

Opening any of 1♦, 2♦, or 3♦ averages about +1.0 IMP.

This is over 884 hands meeting the criteria. Pass was selected 431 times, 1♦ 164 times, 2♦ 216 times, 3♦ 73 times. The hands are from competitive IMP play (main bridge club).

If I restrict to opening bidder having a lehman rating of 55+ (this is a pretty good rating and should eliminate any really bad players) then the size of the sample is much less. However, the results indicate that pass still loses about 0.8 IMPs/board and the various openings all average even higher numbers (like 2/3 IMPs). Probably this reflects a combination of small sample size and better declarer play or bidding by the higher rated players (who are likely to declare and/or have a constructive auction when they open).

My reading of this is that passing these hands is generally a bad tactic, and that the choice of opening 1♦, 2♦, or 3♦ is probably a matter of style and that none of them are obviously superior to the others.