[MFA]

I don't like either of these wild tries. Especially not the latter, since we have good chances to score the ♦K later.

Are you playing alot against horrible opposition?

[jdonn]

I really like both tries to steal a trick. I would much sooner go for a top in ways like this than through a knowingly "bad" bid. Defense is very very difficult, put your opponents to the test! It takes a big parlay of

the card being off
them not ducking
them returning the suit

for it to cost. If either of the first two of those things doesn't occur you get a great board, and since the first one is on its own 50%, the combination is clearly much above that.

In the first case I think the field is particularly far off here. The odds are HUGE they will return a spade if the heart is off (and if they don't then it's probably a club - heart is distant third.)

[gnasher]

MFA, on Mar 12 2008, 03:25 AM, said:

I don't like either of these wild tries. Especially not the latter, since we have good chances to score the ♦K later.

Which chances are these?

Unless there is some kind of two-loser vice (vise?) available, I can't see way to score a diamond trick that doesn't involve leading one to the king. If you're going to do that, it's much safer to do it at trick 3.

[gnasher]

Jlall, on Mar 11 2008, 08:21 AM, said:

LHO led the 9 of spades, small, jack, king.

I've only just noticed this. Is that really what happened? If so, RHO has ♠QJ doubleton, or LHO has led the 9 from Q98xxxx, or RHO has done something very odd.

If LHO has six or seven spades, that increases the chances of ♦A being onside. Against that, LHO is less likely to duck ♦A if he thinks we have three spade tricks.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2008-March-12, 04:57

[dcvetkov]

gnasher, on Mar 12 2008, 04:29 AM, said:

Jlall, on Mar 11 2008, 08:21 AM, said:

LHO led the 9 of spades, small, jack, king.

I've only just noticed this. Is that really what happened? If so, RHO has ♠QJ doubleton, or LHO has led the 9 from Q98xxxx, or RHO has done something very odd.

If LHO has six or seven spades, that increases the chances of ♦A being onside. Against that, LHO is less likely to duck ♦A if he thinks we have three spade tricks.

This is not exactly true. Maybe not in this hand, since lead is 9, but if you work out the hand,it is possible to throw LHO on lead with a third round of spades, and endplay him into leading a diamond from Ax.

[the hog]

gnasher, on Mar 12 2008, 04:29 PM, said:

Jlall, on Mar 11 2008, 08:21 AM, said:

LHO led the 9 of spades, small, jack, king.

I've only just noticed this. Is that really what happened? If so, RHO has ♠QJ doubleton, or LHO has led the 9 from Q98xxxx, or RHO has done something very odd.

If LHO has six or seven spades, that increases the chances of ♦A being onside. Against that, LHO is less likely to duck ♦A if he thinks we have three spade tricks.

What a load of gunf! Why could he not have led from 9x? For what it's worth I agree with a D to the K at BAM and MPs

[gnasher]

The_Hog, on Mar 12 2008, 01:41 PM, said:

gnasher, on Mar 12 2008, 04:29 PM, said:

Jlall, on Mar 11 2008, 08:21 AM, said:

LHO led the 9 of spades, small, jack, king.

I've only just noticed this. Is that really what happened? If so, RHO has ♠QJ doubleton, or LHO has led the 9 from Q98xxxx, or RHO has done something very odd.

If LHO has six or seven spades, that increases the chances of ♦A being onside. Against that, LHO is less likely to duck ♦A if he thinks we have three spade tricks.

What a load of gunf! Why could he not have led from 9x? For what it's worth I agree with a D to the K at BAM and MPs

So you think East might play the jack rather than a low one from QJ8xxx? I agree that he might, but I think it would fall into the category of "something very odd".

This sort of falsecard is sometimes useful when declarer is playing the suit, but it's unusual to do it at notrumps in the suit that we're trying to set up. If East gets in first, it means that he can't continue the suit; if he thinks he isn't going to get in, that means that his partner has all the strength, so he's unlikely to play something that might confuse West.

Edit: I forgot to say thanks for broadening my vocabulary. "Gunf" was new to me.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2008-March-12, 07:53

[MFA]

gnasher, on Mar 12 2008, 03:17 AM, said:

MFA, on Mar 12 2008, 03:25 AM, said:

I don't like either of these wild tries. Especially not the latter, since we have good chances to score the ♦K later.

Which chances are these?

Unless there is some kind of two-loser vice (vise?) available, I can't see way to score a diamond trick that doesn't involve leading one to the king. If you're going to do that, it's much safer to do it at trick 3.

My plan is to cash clubs, ending in dummy. They will have to discard. At that point I can judge to lead a diamond right away or to cash the majors and then lead a diamond.

I think it's quite likely that west will work out to continue diamonds, if he has the A and gets in early. With the clubs in dummy, my ♦ to the K will look very stealish, especially if west happens to have AQx.