655321, on Mar 4 2008, 05:54 PM, said:
mikeh, on Mar 4 2008, 05:33 PM, said:
Our hand is way too good to pass 4N. Only walruses count this abundance of controls as 15.
I would like to take issue with this point.
I don't have a problem with the choice to bid on - my preference is to pass, but that is not what I want to defend here.
If partner invited a game and we held this hand, we would accept the invitation because of the good controls. But an invitation to slam is different. You may decide that a 5 card spade suit and a 5 card suit are a sufficient source of tricks to accept the invitation, no problem. But I don't agree that you can accept on a minimum HCP because you have a lot of controls - you still don't want to play 6NT on a combined 31HCP, 2 balanced hands and no fit just because you have all the aces.
Maybe I didn't express my point well. I think that most serious analysts of the point count approach to valuation agree that the 4321 scale undervalues Aces and Kings and overvalues Queens and Jacks (while missing 9's and 10's and ignoring 'in and out' factors, combining factors etc).
Thus a hand with 7 controls comprising 3 Aces and a King will, unless one of the honours is stiff, be undervalued by assigning it a 15 count valuation, and this is true whether one be considering game or slam.
Furthermore, such a hand containing a suit of A10xxx is certainly to be upgraded.
While I do not run or use the K & R valuation method, maybe someone who does can verify my expectation that this hand is worth more than many 16 counts.
As for the question of a slam invite... notrump bidding, whether it be for game or slam, is generally relatively arithmetic... partner likely has a good 15 to a good 16 or maybe a poor 17.
I ran a simulation, requiring that responder be some 5332 with 5 spades and 15-16 hcp. I deleted a few 15 counts.. where responder possessed one Ace and either 1 or 0 Kings.. and a weak spade suit.
Subject to that, and assuming what I viewed as normal technique and not looking for esoteric positions (I have only so much time available), the results were that in 56 hands, all slams failed 25 times, all slams (6N/6
♥/6
♠) made 14 times, 6
♥ was the only making slam 5 times, 6
♠ 4 times, 6N and 6
♠ 3 times, and 6N + 6
♥ 5 times.
This relatively small sample confirmed that it was a good idea to suggest hearts as a suit, and that slam is a good bet on the whole.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
Help
I think 5H is best now, in fact I was surprised that the simulation made it so close.