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Global cooling.

#141 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2008-March-07, 18:22

jdonn, on Mar 7 2008, 05:32 PM, said:

Zelandakh, on Mar 7 2008, 02:36 PM, said:

If you were doing research to show GW was not as bad as feared, this would generally be seen as less 'relevant' as it lacks the urgency of research into the ice cap melting within 10 years producing massive flooding!

I guess I don't understand research. I thought a researcher doesn't try to "show" anything, but just gathers information to see what IT shows YOU.

A researcher could well have both an opinion and a preference for how things will turn out. The issue is whether he cooks the books. My favorite example of this goes back to an early test of relativity theory. Einstein was asked about the possibility of the observations not supporting his predictions: "Then I would feel very sorry for the Almighty, because the theory is correct". Since the observations matched his predictions, this showdown with the Almighty was put off for another day. Of course in reality, had the observations contradicted his predictions, he would have withdrawn both his quip and his theory.
Ken
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#142 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-March-07, 23:45

kenberg, on Mar 7 2008, 07:22 PM, said:

jdonn, on Mar 7 2008, 05:32 PM, said:

Zelandakh, on Mar 7 2008, 02:36 PM, said:

If you were doing research to show GW was not as bad as feared, this would generally be seen as less 'relevant' as it lacks the urgency of research into the ice cap melting within 10 years producing massive flooding!

I guess I don't understand research. I thought a researcher doesn't try to "show" anything, but just gathers information to see what IT shows YOU.

A researcher could well have both an opinion and a preference for how things will turn out. The issue is whether he cooks the books.

But don't forget the entire point of this section of the discussion was whether universities pay researchers regardless of the conclusions as long as the research is relevant. Presumably they don't make those decisions on the assumption that the researcher is biased.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#143 User is offline   matmat 

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Posted 2008-March-07, 23:57

I am fairly certain that there have been cases of profs losing tenure over falsified data, same for plagiarism.

any reasonable grant proposal will included a careful study of expected outcome(s). I.e. you have to have a result in mind when performing an experiment, but, at the same time, be willing to accept a null or negative one.
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#144 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2008-March-08, 04:17

As I have said I think global warming is more...much more a political debate......
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#145 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-March-08, 12:25

matmat, on Mar 8 2008, 12:57 AM, said:

I am fairly certain that there have been cases of profs losing tenure over falsified data, same for plagiarism.

That is something entirely different.

(Not saying it might not apply to climate scepticist. ;) )
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#146 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2008-March-12, 23:30

Being a 'professional' researcher is far less about what you are researching now, as keeping a steady series of research proposals running over a number of years. So whilst I might get paid for this year's project, if the cash dries up there's going to be some casualties.

It's also wrong to concentrate solely on the profs here too. Most high level research projects rely heavily on good quality RAs and to a lesser extent RSs. Where the prof is likely to keep their job regardless of the conclusions, those lesser lights can get shed pretty quickly, and sometimes that makes them, shall we say, over-eager. :) The simple truth is that bias is a major factor in all forms of scientific research anytime the results are not 'double-blind'. By its nature it's very difficult to make CC research double-blind!

Another part of funding it is important to understand is that written papers are a massive part of how the research team is graded. For most this of course means the standard peer reviewed periodicals, and for the most part these are very good at filtering out the rubbish (although it is worth noting that on occasion an unconventional theory has been rejected from this route even though later proved to be correct). However, if you can create a stir in one of the more 'populist' publications this can actually significantly boost your score, partly because it usually leads to a series of further publications. Note that this applies to both sides of the debate!

Finally, I am not sure if this is true of the States, but over here the main research grant committee cites 'relevance' as a major factor in funding decisions. In practise this means that if you can link your project to a major issue, and there's nothing flagged higher than CC right now, you re much more likely to receive a grant. So instead of researching the habitable tolerance range of insects, instead you research the potential spread of malaria into Europe due to GW. That's not the best example, but this is a sample of the way research proposals are re-worded in order to achieve funding.

And mike777's point is correct, but only to a point. The political debate is probably far more important than the scientific one at this stage. The world needs solutions now, and in the short term the politicians (particularly of USA, China and India) get to step up to the plate.

However, in the longer term it's the scientists and engineers that (I think) will be at the forefront of things. The scientists to complete the understanding, and the engineers to produce the solutions. I think anyone that really understands human nature should be able to see that emissions targets are unlikely to provide a solution. Why should the average Chinese or Indian not be as well off as the average Brit or American? Similarly how can any President hope to be elected promising to slash the standard of living for pretty much everyone? The current political posturing is bordering on cloud cuckoo land in terms of a long-term solution.

So I would not describe CC as a political debate - perhaps more like an investment opportunity!


(-: Zel :-)
(-: Zel :-)
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