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lead...

Poll: lead?? (19 member(s) have cast votes)

lead??

  1. Club (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. Diamond (7 votes [36.84%])

    Percentage of vote: 36.84%

  3. Heart (7 votes [36.84%])

    Percentage of vote: 36.84%

  4. Spade (4 votes [21.05%])

    Percentage of vote: 21.05%

  5. Abstain-I would have bid 7[cl] (1 votes [5.26%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.26%

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#1 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 11:40

Scoring: MP


RHO opens 1. we keep our mouths shut.

1-1
2-2
4-4
6NT

Rightie showed 16+, showed clubs, asked for controls and set the contract.
Leftie showed 4-5 in the majors and 3 controls.

Your lead. The opponents are good players. I suppose I should have added two "spade" options. Please specify what spade you'd lead in case that's your choice.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#2 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 11:45

And now something completely different: I lead the unbid suit.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#3 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 12:25

i dunno..diamond i guess
- Andy -

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We're in the universe, and the universe is in us.
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#4 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 12:34

Probably a low spade. I don't want to force declarer to be forced take a heart hook early.

Declarer sounds like 2137 or something like that. Dummy sounds like a 4-6-2-1 or the like. We should assume we aren't scoring a trick with the Q and will need to develop a trick somewhere else.

A diamond seems pointless to me.
"Phil" on BBO
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#5 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 12:38

I really think one or the other major is right. I lead a heart, it's pretty tough to imagine that would blow a trick given that declarer didn't investigate a heart contract. Probably only if he is void, I'll take that chance. I think we have to set up a trick fast, declarer is probably about to try and run at least 7 club tricks, I picture 3 diamonds and a heart on the side or something like that, so I want to set up a second trick for us for when we get in with the spade. I don't expect this to be popular, but I'm pretty confident a diamond is a road to nowhere and much too passive.

I didn't see Phil's post before this. , we are blood brothers.
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#6 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 13:03

jdonn, on Feb 15 2008, 10:38 AM, said:

I really think one or the other major is right. I lead a heart, it's pretty tough to imagine that would blow a trick given that declarer didn't investigate a heart contract. Probably only if he is void, I'll take that chance. I think we have to set up a trick fast, declarer is probably about to try and run at least 7 club tricks, I picture 3 diamonds and a heart on the side or something like that, so I want to set up a second trick for us for when we get in with the spade. I don't expect this to be popular, but I'm pretty confident a diamond is a road to nowhere and much too passive.

I didn't see Phil's post before this. , we are blood brothers.

As long as we aren't married amigo :)
"Phil" on BBO
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#7 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 13:28

I'd lead a low spade.
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#8 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 14:52

Low .

It seems to me the 3 choices are A, x and x.

A low spade seems to rely on declarer having a spade guess. If declarer has 2 small spades and the K is in dummy, there is no guess. If declarer and dummy have the KQ between them there is no guess. Only if the K is in dummy (likely) and they have the J but not the queen (unlikely - we are looking at 10HCP) is there a guess.

At matchpoints, the A has some appeal, at least cashing our spade trick on layouts where declarer has no spade guess. Is there a big chance of declarer being able to take 13 tricks otherwise? I suppose there are layouts where our hand is in big trouble on the run of the clubs - and a low spade lead might increase the chance of being squeezed.

A low heart is especially successful when declarer has the singleton Ace (but I expect dummy's 3 controls to be the K and the A), and will usually not give a trick away.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#9 User is offline   bid_em_up 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 15:45

Small spade.
Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
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#10 User is offline   jtfanclub 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 16:05

And to think, I lead anything but a low spade.

This is MPs, and there's nothing in my hand that screams that they've gotten to a poor contract. I've got 10 hcp, partner's probably got maybe a jack. That'd give them 7 clubs, three diamonds, and a heart, with probably the option for another heart if they want it. If I lead a low spade, I'll go to bed with the ace. It's almost unimaginable to me that they bid 6NT missing three controls and two queens.

I'll lead a low heart, hoping that the opponent is 4-7 in the minors and goes for a normal diamond break (putting up the ace of hearts on trick 1). I have a feeling, though, that simply tossing out the ace of spades and letting them claim on trick 3 would be a more economical use of time.
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#11 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 16:15

RHO makes a simple 2 and then goes bananas the last two rounds of bidding after pard simply shows a GF with long hearts.

This is a normal contract?
"Phil" on BBO
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#12 User is offline   matmat 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 16:26

chalk me up for a low spade
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#13 User is offline   jtfanclub 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 16:28

pclayton, on Feb 15 2008, 05:15 PM, said:

RHO makes a simple 2 and then goes bananas the last two rounds of bidding after pard simply shows a GF with long hearts.

This is a normal contract?

It's not the normal way to *get* to that contract, but why can't it be a normal contract?

x
x
AKQx
AKxxxxx

KQJx (edit: sorry, for some reason I put it as 5-4 in the majors instead of 4-5).
AQxxx
xx
xx

Isn't 6NT a normal contract here? And isn't a low spade lead the only way they make 13 tricks?
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#14 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 17:05

jtfanclub, on Feb 15 2008, 05:28 PM, said:

x
x
AKQx
AKxxxxx

KQJxx
AQxx
xx
xx

Isn't 6NT a normal contract here?  And isn't a low spade lead the only way they make 13 tricks?

That example is impossible. Pretend you are opener with that hand, you know your partner is 4-5 in the majors with 3 controls but you don't know where they are so you could be off an AK. And you don't know partner's length in the minors, so he could be void in clubs. So you place this hand in 6NT?? Come on.

You should be trying to set them. They have 30 points at most and could even have less. If they make 6NT against you, you are getting a very bad board.
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#15 User is offline   jtfanclub 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 18:03

jdonn, on Feb 15 2008, 06:05 PM, said:

That example is impossible. Pretend you are opener with that hand, you know your partner is 4-5 in the majors with 3 controls but you don't know where they are so you could be off an AK.

If an open AK was physically impossible, then opener would have to have to have an A or K in every suit (try it). So opener would have to have something like:

Kx
Ax
Kx
AJT9xxx

And his partner would have to have something like:

QJxx
QJxxx
Ax
Kx

if you think that that's sufficient to force game (with no fit, that seems pretty optimistic to me). He can claim for 12 and gets a 13th on a heart lead and possibly on a small spade lead.

I think it's more likely that he's willing to risk having an AK open and you not finding it opening lead, believing that if you don't find the killer lead that he has 12 tricks off the top (the AK and 10 tricks in the minors).

As for whether the contract is unusual, well, you and your partner would find 6NT with the two sample hands, right? Using a saner auction, of course.
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#16 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-February-15, 18:32

Opener showed 16+, so I guess you could convince me to force to game with 13.

Opener could take a chance on one suit, but definitely not on two.

He is not just blasting to 6NT on completely un-solid clubs, not to mention a 15 count opposite a game forcing responder that otherwise showed no extras. Your example is still not possible.

A spade lead costs nothing opposite your example.

There is no WAY I would reach slam off an A, a K, and the Q of my long suit on the hands you are coming up with.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#17 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-15, 18:47

Love a heart lead, it is unlikely to blow a trick and is reasonably likely to set up a trick.
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#18 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2008-February-16, 01:27

Scoring: MP

heart lead is a big top, others is a big zero. rho told me "nice lead, the A"

... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
      George Carlin
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#19 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2008-February-16, 13:54

I don't think low spade is a good lead, if you are gonna lead a spade, lead the ace and ensure there is no overtrick, or more importnat, that partner doesn't duck dummy's Q.

Anyway declarer rated to have K on this bidding.
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#20 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2008-February-16, 18:15

gwnn, on Feb 15 2008, 12:40 PM, said:

Scoring: MP

1-1
2-2
4-4
6N

Rightie showed 16+, showed clubs, asked for controls and set the contract.
Leftie showed 4-5 in the majors and 3 controls.
Your lead. The opponents are good players. I suppose I should have added two "spade" options. Please specify what spade you'd lead in case that's your choice.

IMO x = 10, A = 9, x = 5, x = 3, Q = 1.
The only real asset I hold is my diamond suit. The rest of my hand is good news for declarer. So there is a strong case for leading A but a heart is aggressive and likely to be fairly safe because declarer is unlikely to hold more than a small doubleton.
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