[jdonn]

Codo, on Feb 7 2008, 05:33 AM, said:

I totally agree that 5 Heart was no kind of a beauty, but if this is sick, what is healthy?

PASS!!!

[Edmunte1]

Codo, on Feb 7 2008, 05:33 AM, said:

You open 1 Spade with
KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx,

when you have to bid again, your rho just did bid 5 Diamond over pds 3 Heart.

Your choice?

1. pass, we may even go down in 5 of major?
2. Pass and pull pds double to show a good hand for slam?
3. Pass and pull, this shows that my hand is not suitable for a slam?
4. X this is optional, I do not need to show my solid spades or my heart fit. I have no trump tricks, but well double is at least successful in the post mortem?
5. 5 Heart shows support, no,  this is sick, no even beyond sick
6. 5 Spade. This will slow down partner because I hide my support and we may play at the 5. level?

I mean, after this start of the bidding, you do feel a little pressure don´t you?
I totally agree that 5 Heart was no kind of a beauty, but if this is sick, what is healthy?

Codo, your analysys has a flaw. I understand this position this way:

1. Double - i don't want to play 5M
2. Pass - I'd like to play 5M, but i don't have enough ----> If partner doubles (regressive), i'll pass. If partner bids 5M, i'll pass.
3. 5M - i have a decent offensive hand, with shortage in their suit usually and no extras.
4. Pass - I have a hand with extras and fit and i'd like to be in slam, but i don't have enough cards for pushing into it ---> If partner doubles, i'll bid 5M, if partener bids 5M i'll bid slam

Bidding 5M should show around 3 cover cards (♠♥♣-A,K, ♦A,♥Q) along with diamond shortage, and usually a pretty sharp hand (4-5 controls)

KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx - has 1 control and needs partner to hold 6 controls for 5M to make (♠A+♥AK+♣K), so often it won't make, even if we own the board, how it seems. This hand it's between double and pass (1 or 2)

[Codo]

Thanks Edmunte,

I used question marks, this was no analysis. But thanks for the input.

I never thought that this concept is standard already, but nice to know.

[mikeh]

han, on Feb 6 2008, 11:09 AM, said:

Let me give partner's hand just because. He had KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx, some would say this is not a 5H bid. In fact, you might go down even in 5H!

I did bid 6H, thanks for the responses.

I know that probably only mike777 would agree with this idea, but the given hand really doesn't look much like a 1♠ bid to me. I think it is close between 1♠, 2♠ and even pass. Only the most rabid walruses would count this as 13 hcp.

My own choice: 2♠.

Ok, now it's official: I really am old

[gwnn]

mikeh, on Feb 7 2008, 10:49 PM, said:

I know that probably only mike777 would agree with this idea, ...

and gwnn, usually. Beware MikeH!

[655321]

mikeh, on Feb 7 2008, 03:49 PM, said:

han, on Feb 6 2008, 11:09 AM, said:

Let me give partner's hand just because. He had KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx, some would say this is not a 5H bid. In fact, you might go down even in 5H!

I did bid 6H, thanks for the responses.

I know that probably only mike777 would agree with this idea, but the given hand really doesn't look much like a 1♠ bid to me. I think it is close between 1♠, 2♠ and even pass. Only the most rabid walruses would count this as 13 hcp.

My own choice: 2♠.

Aye carumba!

[han]

mikeh, on Feb 7 2008, 03:49 PM, said:

han, on Feb 6 2008, 11:09 AM, said:

Let me give partner's hand just because. He had KQJ10xx Q10x Q QJx, some would say this is not a 5H bid. In fact, you might go down even in 5H!

I did bid 6H, thanks for the responses.

I know that probably only mike777 would agree with this idea, but the given hand really doesn't look much like a 1♠ bid to me. I think it is close between 1♠, 2♠ and even pass. Only the most rabid walruses would count this as 13 hcp.

My own choice: 2♠.

Ok, now it's official: I really am old

As I said, this was the first time I played with this partner and I really don't care what he had. I had an interesting bidding problem, and I just gave my partner's hand for completeness.

[Cascade]

655321, on Feb 7 2008, 12:15 PM, said:

jdonn, on Feb 6 2008, 05:57 PM, said:

Cascade, on Feb 6 2008, 05:54 PM, said:

I understand.

I am trying to think how best to do a simulation here.

It depends on how often partner will push to the five-level with rubbish.

I will look at it some more later.

If partner is bidding 5♥ on hands like the actual one, which is beyond sick, then I'm sure pass will be the winner.

Yes, it seems that you need to do 2 simulations.

First, a simulation to convince yourself that routinely bidding 5/5 is a big loser.
Second, use the results in your second simulation, such that partner's 5/5 is for real.

Ok i have done some simulations.

They have the usual problems most importantly that I used double dummy analysis etc.

1. With opener having at least five spades and exactly three hearts and approximately 12-15 hcp (less with more distribution), responder having at least five hearts and approximately 11-15 hcp (also less with more distribution), the overcaller having seven diamonds or six diamonds and a singleton and around 6-9 hcp and the advancer having four diamonds (required if you want to guarantee a ten-card fit).

I further assumed that we would double them in 5♦ (from one hand or the other) if we did not bid 5♥ (or higher). Initially I assumed that responder with a near minimum would never bid slam.

Under these conditions bidding 5♥ came out at a slight loss (-0.087 IMPs per board).

On the other hand if partner always bid slam when it made then this changed dramatically to +3.27 IMPs per board.

The truth probably lies somewhere between these. Partner will sometimes be able to bid slam but will also sometimes go down when he does so.

It looks to me like a small gain for bidding 5♥ with any minimum with three hearts.

2. Under similar conditions to the above but with responder having the exact hand given.

Now slam made nearly half of the time. Given that 5♥ was sometimes already going down this meant that bidding slam was indicated. In the simulation there was a gain of about 2.066 IMPs per board. The variance was very large though.

If you don't believe the simulation in 1. and therefore expect partner to bid 5♥ less often then of course slam would be even better.

---------------------------

One problem with bidding 5♥ in the first simulation and bidding 6♥ in the second was that you might get doubled.

When I put in a condition like you will get doubled if you are going more than 2-off then 5♥ was still a big winner +2.752 IMPs per board but bidding 6♥ lost most of its gains was only +0.732 IMPs per board (with an even bigger variance than before).

My conclusions from this admittedly brief and probably inadequate study is that you should probably bid 5♥ more often than most posters think and bid 6♥ more often than I think.

[keylime]

Pard bid 5♥ comfortably, which to me is showing offensive showing at worse case 2nd round control. I'm bidding slam.

[cherdano]

Wayne, I don't understand your first simulation. How did you decide whether responder would bid 5♥ over a forcing pass? Whether he would overrule a double? I.e. how can you decide between a forcing pass and a 5♥ bid by opener with such a simulation?

[Cascade]

cherdano, on Feb 8 2008, 05:44 PM, said:

Wayne, I don't understand your first simulation. How did you decide whether responder would bid 5♥ over a forcing pass? Whether he would overrule a double? I.e. how can you decide between a forcing pass and a 5♥ bid by opener with such a simulation?

I was just simulating bidding 5♥ with a minimum hand. I wasn't looking at any pass and pull scenario. I was just trying to answer the question of whether you should strain to show a fit with exactly three hearts.

As an aside personally we wouldn't play forcing pass in this auction. Well actually we cannot have this auction since 3♥ would be non-forcing for us.