FrancesHinden, on Feb 4 2008, 10:04 AM, said:
I agree the 5 spades issue is a problem. But I don't think playing the 10 is problem-free.
Agree.
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I haven't actually said whether I'm playing a spade or a heart. I just said IF I play a spade, I'm playing the 4.
Sorry, can't read.
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The ace of hearts seems to be aiming at a very small target i.e. KQx or KJx in partner's hand: and we need him to unblock an honour under the ace.
Yes, but a spade back also aims at a narrow target relative to the HA...(KJ8x of spades, KJ9x/ KJ9xx+Jx H) or 1 spade stop +DA, and even when we do play back a spade (whichever spade it is) partner will have to read the position to A) not continue spades and B ) shift to hearts rather than diamonds (which I don't think is clear, isn't it a random guess?). Even if you think B is clear, A is not.
And a small heart shift aims at a narrow target relative to the HA shift, KJ tight with declarer or a heart holding from partner that we cannot read after the HA and shift back to a spade.
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What's worse, with Kx he will unblock as well as it is possible that we have AQxxxx (rather than our random minor suit jack).
If partner has Kx of hearts, given his 4-6 HCP, we cannot set this hand since declarer has both minor suit aces and a spade stopper so that is an irrelevant position, unless partner also has KJ of spades and they opened 1N 1 light, in which case he would not unblock the HK.
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Given all of that, I would rather switch to a low heart than the ace (maybe declarer has KJ doubleton).
Basically I think that everything is aiming at a small target, and I think a small heart is clearly inferior to any spade back or the ace of hearts. You gain on KJ tight and a misguess when you lead a small heart back but you lose on every hand where we can run spades at them (KJ9x with pard or KJxxx any), except when he has one of those holdings with Jx of hearts. I think that KJ tight specifically + a misguess is way less likely than us having spades to run without partner having Jx of hearts.
I do not know whether a spade or the HA back is better, but I feel like given the fact that even if we lead back a spade partner might get the D wrong + just the chances of partner having KQx/KJx of hearts rather than KJ8x of spades, or KJ9x/KJxxx+Jx of hearts makes the heart ace the right play but I am very unsure.