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Strange sequence lead

Poll: What is your lead? (24 member(s) have cast votes)

What is your lead?

  1. Spade Ace (2 votes [8.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.33%

  2. Spade Queen (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. Some Appropriate Spade pip (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. Heart (12 votes [50.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 50.00%

  5. Diamond Jack (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  6. Diamond Nine (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. Other Diamond Pip (4 votes [16.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 16.67%

  8. Club King (1 votes [4.17%])

    Percentage of vote: 4.17%

  9. Club Jack (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  10. Club Pip (5 votes [20.83%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.83%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2008-February-03, 12:29

You open 1 with AQxxx-x-J9xx-KJx. Equal Vul. MP.

LHO doubles, and partner makes a standard XX. RHO bid 4, which is passed out.

The complete auction:

1-X-XX-4-
P-P-P

Your lead? Reasons welcome.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

-P.J. Painter.
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#2 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-February-03, 12:39

I'd lead a heart, trying to cut down on spade ruffs in dummy. Partner will likely have some honors in the minors so I'm not too worried about a strong side suit in dummy.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#3 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-03, 12:40

trump is clear, they are bidding on shape and we have lots of HCP.
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#4 User is offline   skjaeran 

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Posted 2008-February-03, 13:53

Obvious trump lead IMO.
Kind regards,
Harald
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#5 User is offline   matmat 

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Posted 2008-February-03, 14:41

trump...

but was p joking with the xx? how come there's no X of 4?
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#6 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-February-03, 16:16

matmat, on Feb 3 2008, 03:41 PM, said:

but was p joking with the xx? how come there's no X of 4?

I see no reason to think that partner was joking. Is it not poosible that partner has some balanced 11-count that isn't sure whether 4H will be beaten? Pass is not forcing for me.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#7 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2008-February-03, 17:26

Why no X to 4H? Not 2DT in his 10 hcp to XX. Protect his K+Q from ruffs, lead H.
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#8 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2008-February-04, 06:47

Strange.

I was provided this problem and knee-jerked a lead. After more thought, suggested by a "WTF?!?!?" response, it seemed that there were two legitimate options.

My first choice and the two re-think choices get no or almost no votes.

The two re-think options would have set the contract, but not so much the "stand out" leads, per answers so far.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

-P.J. Painter.
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#9 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2008-February-04, 07:01

even having seen your comment I still think a trump lead stands out
second choice is the ace of spades playing for spade (over)-ruffs, but with no sure re-entry that is is bit deep.
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#10 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2008-February-04, 08:26

Would your lead change if the contest was IMP's? That was the actual form of scoring for the actual problem. I was curious if the form of scoring changed things. Maybe it does.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

-P.J. Painter.
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#11 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-February-04, 08:35

kenrexford, on Feb 4 2008, 09:26 AM, said:

Would your lead change if the contest was IMP's? That was the actual form of scoring for the actual problem. I was curious if the form of scoring changed things. Maybe it does.

No because I think a heart is the most likely lead to beat them.
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#12 User is offline   MFA 

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Posted 2008-February-04, 09:28

It's clubs or trumps. Leading a singleton trump could be harmful for the trump situation.

What are my spade spots? If I have AQ432, I'd certainly not lead a trump. Righty often has 4+ spades also, so a trump lead is pointless if I don't have good spades to protect.
Michael Askgaard
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#13 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2008-February-04, 15:16

Interesting.

The actual layout was such that the opponents had ten red tricks coming to them if the defense did not immediately take four black tricks.

This seems like a reasonably likely scenario, in light of the sequence. Did those who elected a heart lead consider and reject this as less likely, I assume, than the need to cut down spade ruffs?
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

-P.J. Painter.
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#14 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2008-February-04, 15:24

kenrexford, on Feb 4 2008, 04:16 PM, said:

Did those who elected a heart lead consider and reject this as less likely, I assume, than the need to cut down spade ruffs?

Yep, see my post.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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