[1eyedjack]

Scoring: IMP

N....E....You....W
1N...P.....2D....P
2H...P.....P.....3C
P....3N....End

1N = 12-14, 2D Tfr

---

Your lead?

[jtfanclub]

I predict that RHO has a hand like...

KJxx
Axx
Axx
KJx

He doesn't need much from partner to make this. Unfortunately, the holding up on the heart to kill communication is doomed to fail because his partner doesn't have 6 clubs to the ace, and you have the ace of clubs.

I'll lead a small heart. If I had the 10, I'd feel much better about it, since there's a good chance the suit will block. On the other hand, that's tough for them to tell, so they may hold up once too often.

[pclayton]

A few things trouble me here. Why isn't RHO doubling 1N? I'm not putting him on the hand JT specifies. I think RHO and pard both have doubleton clubs, but RHO doesn't have enough for an immediate call over 1N - so a 13-14 count and a club card.

Pard doesn't have 4 (or even 3 good hearts), else with a doubleton club he competes to 3♥ (not certain but reasonable).

I have two choices. I can hope pard has 3 hearts and they are reasonably good enough, or that I can try to hit pard's suit which is perhaps diamonds.

The big problem with a heart lead is that unless declarer has a single stop, or hearts are 2-2 and don't block, we are getting our entry knocked out immediately.

I think diamonds offers a better chance. We'll get two early chances to lead them and pard will have late entries, assuming declarer needs more than just the club suit.

[foo]

Tough hand. Since I only have one entry, and no other suit that has any chance of being useful, I lead a ♥ on the expectation that it is likely to hurt the least since I can't be sure what lead will help the most.

At least in ♥'s I know We have more of them than They do.

[jtfanclub]

pclayton, on Jan 1 2008, 02:14 PM, said:

Quote

A few things trouble me here. Why isn't RHO doubling 1N?

Maybe they don't have it available? Playing DONT or something?

Quote

I think diamonds offers a better chance. We'll get two early chances to lead them and pard will have late entries, assuming declarer needs more than just the club suit.

Well, if RHO has a suit, it can't be clubs (he has at most 3), it cant be hearts (he has at most 4, I should hope), and it can't be spades (surely he'd bid something with a spade suit). So I think the two possibilities are....

1) A strong balanced hand with a system problem where he can't show strong balanced hands, or....

2) A good middle-strength hand with a diamond suit.

Can you draw up a 13-14 hcp hand where you'd bid 3NT over 3♣ that does not include a diamond suit or 3 clubs?

[hrothgar]

pclayton, on Jan 1 2008, 10:14 PM, said:

A few things trouble me here. Why isn't RHO doubling 1N? I'm not putting him on the hand JT specifies. I think RHO and pard both have doubleton clubs, but RHO doesn't have enough for an immediate call over 1N - so a 13-14 count and a club card.

Pard doesn't have 4 (or even 3 good hearts), else with a doubleton club he competes to 3♥ (not certain but reasonable).

I have two choices. I can hope pard has 3 hearts and they are reasonably good enough, or that I can try to hit pard's suit which is perhaps diamonds.

The big problem with a heart lead is that unless declarer has a single stop, or hearts are 2-2 and don't block, we are getting our entry knocked out immediately.

I think diamonds offers a better chance. We'll get two early chances to lead them and pard will have late entries, assuming declarer needs more than just the club suit.

I agree with a Phil's assessment

One other point worth considering: Its possible (though not likely) that West might be sitting on long clubs with a side suit entry

Hypothetically the might have

♠ xxx
♥ x
♦ Axx
♣ KJT9876

It might be crucial to kill the Diamond entry before my Ace of Clubs gets knocked out.

1. I don't know if East has side suit enty
2. If there is an entry, I don't know if its in Spades or Diamonds

However, I'd be shocked if said (hypothetical) entry is in Hearts.

[pclayton]

jtfanclub, on Jan 1 2008, 11:38 AM, said:

pclayton, on Jan 1 2008, 02:14 PM, said:

 

Quote

A few things trouble me here. Why isn't RHO doubling 1N?

Maybe they don't have it available? Playing DONT or something?

Quote

I think diamonds offers a better chance. We'll get two early chances to lead them and pard will have late entries, assuming declarer needs more than just the club suit.

Well, if RHO has a suit, it can't be clubs (he has at most 3), it cant be hearts (he has at most 4, I should hope), and it can't be spades (surely he'd bid something with a spade suit). So I think the two possibilities are....

1) A strong balanced hand with a system problem where he can't show strong balanced hands, or....

2) A good middle-strength hand with a diamond suit.

Can you draw up a 13-14 hcp hand where you'd bid 3NT over 3♣ that does not include a diamond suit or 3 clubs?

Playing DONT over a weak NT?

Quote

Can you draw up a 13-14 hcp hand where you'd bid 3NT over 3♣ that does not include a diamond suit or 3 clubs?

Axxx, AQx, xxxx, Kx

[jtfanclub]

pclayton, on Jan 1 2008, 04:00 PM, said:

Axxx, AQx, xxxx, Kx

Fair enough. I'm convinced.

[1eyedjack]

Thanks all. I am not suggesting that the opposition bidding was perfect - I guess if you assume perfection in your opponents all the time it will be a bit restrictive on your actions. I don't know that I would have bid the same way. Always a bit tricky when your mind is polluted with extra info.

Here is the full hand that I was kibitzing:

Scoring: IMP

N...E...S...W
1N..P...2D..P
2H..P...P...3C
P...3N..End
Your lead as South

---

Contract can actually always be made double dummy. A Spade lead holds it to tick, and any other lead concedes an overtrick (according to GIB).

But making it on either major suit lead requires a bit of care. On a Heart lead, Club to King, and Heart back, East must take care to win the second Heart to block the suit. Some pairs ducked and went down, so that a cursory examination of the traveller suggests that a Heart lead would have been better. On a Spade lead North gets squeezed early on the hand after East cashes 4 rounds of Diamonds, finessing out North's Queen. But there is scope for error.

At the table South, a beginner who shows some promise, led a Spade. North, an expert, erred (I think) by rising with the Queen, giving East an opportunity to duck (requires some card reading). Not entirely unreasonably East won trick 1, so guaranteeing a second Spade trick in the event that the honours were divided, so it turned out not to matter (to the defence) that North played high. At trick 2 East lead a Club, and South fell from grace by playing low. Had South played the Ace and led another Spade (which North should hopefully duck to conceal the break) then East has now to play for the squeeze to make. A passive Club continuation at this stage and he is off.

I don't know if I would have found the Spade lead. I gave GIB maximum time to think and it lead a Heart although I have no way to program it with the definitions of the bids at the table which might make a difference.

I am confident that South knew the principle of "4th highest of longest and strongest", and I thought that the decision to disregard the rule was unworthy of criticism however it worked out. North's comment at hand end was "at least if you lead your 4th highest you win the post mortem". I only mentioned the hand because it reminded me of that other thread currently active in the SAYC and 2/1 section of the forums ("As simple as it gets") - not that the hands are in any way similar.

[nick_s]

One more small point in favor of a diamond lead rather than a spade (I agree with all of Phil's comments).
It's entirely possible that pard has a five card diamond suit, but very unlikely that he has a 5 card spade suit.

[1eyedjack]

nick_s, on Jan 1 2008, 10:36 PM, said:

One more small point in favor of a diamond lead rather than a spade (I agree with all of Phil's comments).
It's entirely possible that pard has a five card diamond suit, but very unlikely that he has a 5 card spade suit.

I thought of mentioning that North can have 5 Spades, in the original post, but I didn't want to prejudice the responses.

[benlessard]

I dont buy into the D instead of S. Partner is heavy favorite to have 4S (or 5 if your system allow it). Otherwise they would have bid spades or make a take-out X of some sort). So i think a S lead is normal lead.