[cnszsun]

It's tempting to put ♥Q at 1st tricks to discover who has ♥K, but i want to play ♦ from hand. So, i will win first trick with J, then play ♦ toward Q.
A lot of chance to make from this start, for example, ♦Kxx onside, or both♠Q,J onside, if both failed, we can still try to get two ♦ triks if rho holds KJ10 or KJxx, K10xx.

[655321]

We have 7 top tricks now.
Either we need a trick in spades, likely via double hook, plus an extra diamond trick, or we need diamonds to play for 3 tricks.

My first thought was to win ♥Q and run ♦7, but West can win and switch to clubs - we can't duck a club because East can win to clear hearts.

So I like:
♥Q
♦ led from dummy to the Ace.
If no big diamonds appear, now a ♦ to the Q.
If East wins the K and plays a heart, duck, win the next heart and take a spade finesse.
If the spade loses, we play a diamond next, needing diamonds 3-3 with East having to win the 3rd diamond, or West starting with Jx/Tx in diamonds. (plus we need the second spades finesse).

If the ♦Q wins at trick 3, play another diamond. If West began with KJxx, he can make 2 diamonds, but we still have time for the double spade hook, losing 2 diamonds, 1 heart and one spade.

[gnasher]

I'd play as Michael Sun suggests: win HJ, diamond to queen.

If DQ loses to the king, I win the third heart and try for both spades onside. If the first spade loses, I'll try for another diamond trick, playing avoidance against East, who I'll need to have KJX, KJ10, KJxx or K10xx.

I can't afford to play DA before leading up to the queen, for two reasons:
- To pick up SQJxx onside will require three entries to hand.
- A very far-sighted East might unblock DJ from, say, Qxx xxx KJx Qxxx. When he gets in with SQ he can then play a diamond to his partner's 10. OK, this one really is fantasy, but it's a nice idea.

[Halo]

I'd win the Jack and finesse spades.

I need some luck in diamonds - more so if the defence can switch to clubs after winning a heart.

[bhall]

I hope you were able to congratualte the player who nervelessly played low on the ♦9 off dummy. After a suitable interval of tooth-gnashing, of course.

[655321]

Jlall, on Feb 17 2008, 02:12 PM, said:

OK, I also thought it was between the 2 suggested lines of

Ace and a diamond  OR
small diamond.

Gnasher discussed the reasons for a small diamond, the advantage of ace and a diamond is that you pick up KT, KJ, stiff T, stiff J of diamonds on right (losing to JT doubleton).

Anyways, the player at the other table RAN THE 7 OF DIAMONDS, and RHO had KJTx.

I thought that was quite remarkable, just wanted to make sure I was not going crazy. It really tilted me that we lost the event to this lol.

Oh and I chose ace and a diamond (winning in dummy first and calling for the 9 of diamonds, just in case).

RHO can split from JTx, so Ace and a diamond can also lose two tricks to that holding.

[kenrexford]

I unfortunately am responding late to this this, which affects the credibility here, but my immediate thought was to win the heart Queen and float the diamond 7.

It seems rather standout, whether mathematically right or not.

[Winstonm]

At the risk of looking the fool - or being a real fool - I thought I'd go through my real thoughts on this hand.

I have 7 top tricks.
First, I would like to have an idea of who holds the heart king - that would help.
I will play the heart 10, as that will make it harder for RHO to duck with Kxx, as his partner may have led from J9xx. If RHO does not cover, either he does not hold the heart king or else he is way better player than me in which case we are losing this match anyway.
Assuming no cover and the heart king with LHO, I now would at least like to get closer to 9 tricks. Spades seem to offer a better chance than diamonds to produce some tricks. I will play them from the top, as this only costs to QJx, QJxx or QJxxx onside, and gives a small chance of picking up QJ.

If I can manage 4 tricks in spades I make. If I can manage 3 tricks in spades I don't need a diamond miracle, only King onside or a diamond/club squeeze, perhaps.

The play from here could get more complex, depending on what occured in spades and who holds length, etc.

But my basic thoughts on this hand is that I need to determine the spade situation before addressing diamonds rather than the other way round - diamonds before spades.

[Cascade]

655321, on Feb 18 2008, 08:41 AM, said:

Jlall, on Feb 17 2008, 02:12 PM, said:

OK, I also thought it was between the 2 suggested lines of

Ace and a diamond  OR
small diamond.

Gnasher discussed the reasons for a small diamond, the advantage of ace and a diamond is that you pick up KT, KJ, stiff T, stiff J of diamonds on right (losing to JT doubleton).

Anyways, the player at the other table RAN THE 7 OF DIAMONDS, and RHO had KJTx.

I thought that was quite remarkable, just wanted to make sure I was not going crazy. It really tilted me that we lost the event to this lol.

Oh and I chose ace and a diamond (winning in dummy first and calling for the 9 of diamonds, just in case).

RHO can split from JTx, so Ace and a diamond can also lose two tricks to that holding.

I think consideration of this holding is why it is right to play the queen on the second round of the suit even after J/10 appears.

Low wins against KJ/10 and stiff J/10 but loses to J10 or the much more likely J10x.

[gnasher]

kenrexford, on Feb 17 2008, 09:20 PM, said:

I unfortunately am responding late to this this, which affects the credibility here, but my immediate thought was to win the heart Queen and float the diamond 7.

It seems rather standout, whether mathematically right or not.

After the 7 loses to the jack or 10, and they return a club, what stands out now?

[matmat]

edit - sometimes I am stupid and best be ignored.

[kenrexford]

gnasher, on Feb 17 2008, 06:09 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Feb 17 2008, 09:20 PM, said:

I unfortunately am responding late to this this, which affects the credibility here, but my immediate thought was to win the heart Queen and float the diamond 7.

It seems rather standout, whether mathematically right or not.

After the 7 loses to the jack or 10, and they return a club, what stands out now?

Understand that I am not remotely saying that the floating of the 7 is or is not the right play. What I am saying is that there is an allure to this play that makes it not a shocker that someone would make that play. When I looked at dummy, my hand, and the lead, the first thought I had was whether or not a small diamond toward hand and floated if not covered might be ideal. Thus, of the opponents elected that line, for whatever reason, I would not be shocked. I would respond that I considered that line but discarded it because of [whatever my reasons]. I would decide that the opponents took what I apparently deemed the inferior line at the time.

[Cascade]

matmat, on Feb 18 2008, 12:24 PM, said:

excuse the stupid question.

trying to develop an extra trick in spades isn't it odds on to play them from the top?

No.

The double finesse works whenever (at least) one honour is onside ~ 13/26 + 13/26 * 13/25 = 76%

From the top works when the suit is :

6-0 ~ 0.7%

5-1 with a stiff honour ~ 1/3 of 5-1s = 4.8%

4-2 with a doubleton honour ~ 9/15 of 4-2s = 29.1%

any 3-3 ~ 35.5%

0.7% + 1.2 * 4 + 6.5 * 4 + 1.6 * 2 = .7 + 4.8 + 32 + 3.2

In total this is 70.2%

[benlessard]

Even if the lead is a true 4th best i think playing S first to try an endplay is inferior then D at trick 2.