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As simple as it gets

#1 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 12:42

You hold

♠ 98
♥ 76
♦ JT94
♣ AQ862

at IMPS. The opponents bid

1N - 2♥
2♠ - 3N

What's your lead?
Alderaan delenda est
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#2 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 12:56

A club?

Which one is a matter of
agreement.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#3 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 12:58

club, ofc
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#4 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 13:04

♣6
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#5 User is offline   nick_s 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 13:07

A small club
Not an expert, just a student of the game
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#6 User is offline   SoTired 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 14:09

i will have to hear some very persuasive logic to convince me not to lead a small club with this hand on this auction.
It costs nothing to be nice -- my better half
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#7 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 15:12

first option ♣6, second option ♣2
BridgeGod: my personal website with interactive problems and articles
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#8 User is offline   foo 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 15:19

SoTired, on Dec 30 2007, 03:09 PM, said:

i will have to hear some very persuasive logic to convince me not to lead a small club with this hand on this auction.

If the 1N opener is RHO, then leading a ♣ may cost a trick. You want =partner= to lead ♣'s =through= RHO and into you hand if RHO is the 1N opener.

Natural lead from the given hand is the DJ from JT9x
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#9 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 15:21

4th best club for me
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#10 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 15:21

I have to agree with the world, a club seems like by far the best chance to set.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#11 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 15:24

foo, on Dec 30 2007, 04:19 PM, said:

SoTired, on Dec 30 2007, 03:09 PM, said:

i will have to hear some very persuasive logic to convince me not to lead a small club with this hand on this auction.

If the 1N opener is RHO, then leading a ♣ may cost a trick. You want =partner= to lead ♣'s =through= RHO and into you hand if RHO is the 1N opener.

Natural lead from the given hand is the DJ from JT9x

cough... At matchpoints I would have a lot of sympathy for a diamond lead. At imps, never. Lead a club, and hope partner can get in and has two or more clubs. A club gives us a reasonable chance to set up four winners in that suit. AT imps I am not trying to keep from blowing an overtrick, I am trying to gain enough tricks to set the contract.
--Ben--

#12 User is offline   neilkaz 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 15:45

I'll lead a ♣ at IMPs and hope we can get 4♣ tricks once PD gets in.
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#13 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2007-December-30, 19:18

Ya at imps a club is just our best shot to beat the hand via 5 clubs or 4 clubs+ partners entry. At MP I would go with the DJ
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#14 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 19:36

Jlall, on Dec 30 2007, 05:18 PM, said:

Ya at imps a club is just our best shot to beat the hand via 5 clubs or 4 clubs+ partners entry. At MP I would go with the DJ

I think the ♣ is best, but I'm curious about the ♦ at MPs. Not only does it seem less lucrative but I'd be worried we aren't getting any field protection on the opening lead.
"Phil" on BBO
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#15 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 20:17

I lead a club at any form of scoring. At IMPs, it is absolutely clear.
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#16 User is offline   joker_gib 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 03:21

Obvious ♣
Alain
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#17 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 04:23

There's a good reason that 4th highest of longest & strongest is so popular - it's likely to be the best way of beating the contract.
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#18 User is offline   foo 

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Posted 2008-January-01, 09:45

FrancesHinden, on Dec 31 2007, 05:23 AM, said:

There's a good reason that 4th highest of longest & strongest is so popular - it's likely to be the best way of beating the contract.

Bridge by parable? I dare say that if the contract was 4S rather than 3N, no one would be leading a ♣ from AQxxx on this auction; and we all know why.
"4th down from your longest and strongest" does not come close to describing the actual complexity of choosing an opening lead.

Underleading A's and AQ's can cost vs NT contracts as well as vs suit contracts.

The opening lead is definitely the hardest play in Bridge to get right, and clearly one can construct boards where what we need to do here is lead a Major! However, the issue is what is not what is going to work, but rather what is most likely to work.

I don't =know= what is most likely to work, and neither does anyone else who is honest about it. I think a ♣ or a ♦ is most likely to.
And I don't think it is as clear cut as simply tallying the responses might given the impression of.

Another situation where it would be interesting for a good simulation to be done.
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#19 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2008-January-01, 11:02

foo, on Jan 1 2008, 10:45 AM, said:

And I don't think it is as clear cut as simply tallying the responses might given the impression of.

The responses are based on experience, which from all the respondants I would bet totals over a million hands of bridge. For such a simple problem (common auction, unexceptional hand) that's as accurate as you can get.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#20 User is offline   Ronald_21 

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Posted 2008-January-01, 11:15

foo, on Jan 1 2008, 05:45 PM, said:

Another situation where it would be interesting for a good simulation to be done.


I did a simulation yesterday and clubs was the best lead (diamonds was second best, but it was not close).
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