[Apollo81]

♠1095
♥107
♦K932
♣8532

MPs. 3♣ was normal Stayman.

[awm]

I would lead a spade on such a hand. Leading my own suit is not very appealing, since ♦K9xx is not a very strong holding and the opponents' values are on my right. I'd prefer a lead which is somewhat passive (doesn't give anything declarer couldn't do himself) but at the same time has a good chance to "hit partner's suit." The nice thing about a spade lead is that this is the one suit where we know declarer doesn't have four cards. Since declarer has most of their points, declarer's shortest suit is also fairly likely to be their weakest suit, and partner is sitting over any spade cards in dummy. I expect that if declarer has doubleton spade, the spade lead will work out extremely well whereas if declarer has three spades it's basically just a passive lead (might blow a tempo I guess, but at least I didn't lead into declarer's ♦AQ).

[hrothgar]

awm, on Dec 21 2007, 09:24 PM, said:

I would lead a spade on such a hand. Leading my own suit is not very appealing, since ♦K9xx is not a very strong holding and the opponents' values are on my right. I'd prefer a lead which is somewhat passive (doesn't give anything declarer couldn't do himself) but at the same time has a good chance to "hit partner's suit." The nice thing about a spade lead is that this is the one suit where we know declarer doesn't have four cards. Since declarer has most of their points, declarer's shortest suit is also fairly likely to be their weakest suit, and partner is sitting over any spade cards in dummy. I expect that if declarer has doubleton spade, the spade lead will work out extremely well whereas if declarer has three spades it's basically just a passive lead (might blow a tempo I guess, but at least I didn't lead into declarer's ♦AQ).

I considered a Spade lead, however, I was worried about the fact the I have three small. If the 2♣ opener has three Spades, he's eventually going to establish a 4th Spade in dummy.

I lean towards a club lead

[jdonn]

I lean toward the club for much the same reasons as Richard. No super strong feelings here.

[whereagles]

club. spade looks nice but opps may easily have more of those than we... Diamond isn't really attractive.. requires too much in pd to work.

[pclayton]

Probably a club. I'm scared about leading the ♠10 and seeing some H-8-7-x combo in dummy.

[y66]

Per 1000 deal simulation, C2 sets them on 81 deals and holds them to 4 on 176 deals. ST sets them on 71 deals and holds them to 4 on 173 deals.

[Edit: HT sets them on 51 deals and holds them to 4 on 138 deals. D2 sets them on 61 deals and holds them to 4 on 153 deals]

[Apollo81]

I thought that all three leads were reasonable. I led a club. For those interested in the result, a spade was necessary to hold the contract to 10 tricks, otherwise they make 11.

[dburn]

Would lead a spade without thought. But if anyone has any thoughts, would be interested in them. (Have posted this as usual when I vote in polls: read first, then vote and comment, then read other comments.)

[Halo]

It is a matter of taste, but I prefer to vote, then read the contributions, then post maybe.

By the time I voted, the arguments for diamonds and against spades had been made and still seem valid enough to me. Spades would have been my second choice.

[pclayton]

dburn, on Dec 22 2007, 09:09 PM, said:

Would lead a spade without thought. But if anyone has any thoughts, would be interested in them. (Have posted this as usual when I vote in polls: read first, then vote and comment, then read other comments.)

I think this is the only honest way to participate.

[Halo]

pclayton, on Dec 23 2007, 02:52 PM, said:

dburn, on Dec 22 2007, 09:09 PM, said:

Would lead a spade without thought. But if anyone has any thoughts, would be interested in them. (Have posted this as usual when I vote in polls: read first, then vote and comment, then read other comments.)

I think this is the only honest way to participate.

Interesting cultural idea that I must think over. I had imagined a forum as more interactive. I can live with 'post blind' as the concept, though I don't notice that it happens. Only honest... no idea what that means.

[awm]

The problem is that polls are trying to get people's opinions. There are a few people in these forums who a lot of folks tend to listen to. If we all just wait for Fred to post and then vote for whatever he says, that rather defeats the purpose of a poll?

[Halo]

awm, on Dec 23 2007, 03:04 PM, said:

The problem is that polls are trying to get people's opinions. There are a few people in these forums who a lot of folks tend to listen to. If we all just wait for Fred to post and then vote for whatever he says, that rather defeats the purpose of a poll?

I think you misread me - vote then read is what I said.

I know what you mean of course - the ditto, agree with.. etc. I guess it is inevitable that people with a track record will be listened to.

I try to read all the posts on their merits. It helps that I don't know most of the people and that I don't believe there is a correct bidding system, or even method within a system.

With leads the answer is mostly unlikely to be obvious if the problem was worth posting.

[han]

pclayton, on Dec 23 2007, 02:52 PM, said:

dburn, on Dec 22 2007, 09:09 PM, said:

Would lead a spade without thought. But if anyone has any thoughts, would be interested in them. (Have posted this as usual when I vote in polls: read first, then vote and comment, then read other comments.)

I think this is the only honest way to participate.

I disagree. I think it is much better to read the problem, think what you would answer and then read the other posts before you write your answer.