[the hog]

Imps, all green, ok opponents.

(1C) 1S (X) 2S
(5D) ?

AJ9xxxx
Kxx
void
KQx

Your bid?
Might pay to know a little about methods here - partner could have 3 or 4 Spades. He has a Ruben's Advance of 2H to show a good S raise; - obviously he does not have that.

[mr1303]

Don't think this one is a good one for the LAW

5 spades.

And hope it makes.

You have no reason to assume 5D isn't making. The K of hearts looks like being onside for opps, so you have a possible club trick in defence, worst case scenario.

[Free]

Pass, dont push them in a laydown slam...

[inquiry]

Imps, all green, ok opponents.

(1C) 1S (X) 2S
(5D) ?

♠AJ9xxxx
♥Kxx
♦void
♣KQx

Well, pass isn't forcing. If you pass and your partner reopens with a double you could then bid 5♠, but with your defensive hand (side suit honors and ♠A) I would pass such a double. Of course, your partner has a bleech hand, although I suspect with 3 or 4 ♦s (he could have as many as 5 however). East must have a monster two suiter, and clearly reversing values, as your side showed no effort to try to get to game yet and he freely jumped to 5♦ (and opened 1♣ with what is obviously 4+♦).

Contrary to earlier poster, I think LOTT always applies, and certainly does on this hand. One just has to take into account things like voids, which adds to the trick total. Not vul, I would expect a jump from partner to 3♠ with most four card support, so suggest 3. So we have a ten card fit. If I really think there is a good chance he can have 4♠ my bidding on over 5♦ is even clearer. They have either 9 or 10 card ♦ fit. So I will guess it is a 20 trump hand (true partner might have 4♦, but our void would alter the LOTT math anyway, and partner could have 4♠ according to RON, and we they could have 11 card fit too).

If they can win 11 tricks, we are down two in 5♠X if they can win 10 tricks, we are down 1 in 5♠X if they can make 9 tricks, we can make 5♠. Let's compare our bidding 5♠ to passing...

WE win [space] They win [space] [space] 5Sx [space] [space] 5D [space] [space]imps for bidding
8 tricks [space] [space] 12 tricks [space] -500 [space] -420 [space] [space] -2 imp [space] [space] [space] [space] [space] [space]
9 tricks [space] [space] 11 tricks [space] -300 [space] -400 [space] [space] +3 imps
10 tricks [space] [space]10 tricks [space] -100 [space] +50 [space] [space] [space]-4 imps
11 tricks [space] [space]9 tricks [space] +450 [space] +100 [space] [space] [space]+8 imp
10 tricks [space] [space]11 tricks [space]-100 [space] -400 [space] [space] [space]+8 imps

Note the last line in this table, which reflects the fact that with a void, LOTT may be off by more than one trick, so that there maybe only 20 trumps but 21 tricks. With 20 tricks, bidding one more seems to be the best bet, with 21 it becomes clearly best. I think you can safely assume you will at least eight tricks on this auction even if your partner goes bust with ♠Qxx ♥xxxx ♦xxx ♣xxx (2♣, 6♠). So bidding on seems relatively save, risking 2 imps max against their sure game. Also the above table reflects them doubling when right (and the score for 5S making was not doubled...so not doubling when it was wrong). If they don't double when you are going down the bidding on is even better, and if they take the push to 6♦ and go down when you can't make anything, the rewards are even larger (am I afraid of them playing 6♦? Well a little, but I might have 2♣ or a ♣ and a ♥ winner even if ♠ ace doesn't count and maybe the trump split will cause handling problems... especially if EAST has to ruff ♠ and WEST a couple of ♣s).

So all in all, on the given auction, I would take the push and bid 5♠ on this hand. Worse things that might reasonably happened to me is that it is a 19 trick hand and they can win only 10 while we can win only 9 so I am -300 versus +50.

[the hog]

Very thorough analysis, Ben.
The full hand was as follows:

---

As you can see, you make 5S. Perhaps you disagree with the negative double, I certainly do. After I bid and made 5S, I felt I made a bad bid. Ben's analysis suggests I didn't, though I wonder about the D void - does it not look like partner is sitting with a stack?

Ron

[Trpltrbl]

5 ♠, my hand is just too good for offensive play. I am not sure what is going on but I am sure 5 ♠ has some play for it. Problem will come when pd X's 6 ♦.

Mike