hrothgar, on Nov 27 2007, 07:41 AM, said:
foo, on Nov 27 2007, 12:49 PM, said:
I said what I meant. I have some inside knowledge of the case.
I don't claim any esoteric knowledge about this case. I haven't even bothered to read Kleinman's book.
I do have one question for some of the folks who are talking about Kaplan's contentions about opening leads:
Do we have any information about the sampling techniques? Its fine and dandy to say that you have a collection of 15 incriminating leads. My immediate reaction is to ask for the complete set of boards. I want to understand whether there is an overall pattern of unusual leads and then try to figure out whether a statistically significant percentage of these leads "worked".
My impression (from other discussion about cheating) is that most individuals don't understand issues like significance tests. For example, I wouldn't be surprised if Kaplan didn't keep excellent records of boards that he found suspicious. However, I'm not sure whether he would bother to keep enough additional information about all of the routine hands.
I understand the point Richard is making, but I am not sure that it is valid when it comes to assessing the competency or integrity of supposedly top players.
A hallmark of the 'best' players... the top dozen of so in the world, is the relative infrequency of unforced errors. There are choices that these players make that are automatic at their skill level. Some of them occasionally exhibit flair and do something unorthodox, yet the Zia's of the world have a reason for their unorthodox action, which is almost always in the auction, not in the play and very rarely, from what I have read, on opening lead. One reason these players ARE the best is their consistency.
Kaplan's point, which was not stated explicitly, seems to have been that Katz and Cohen seemed to make occasional plays that were utterly illogical by the tenents of other top experts and, when they did so, always struck gold. And it is illogical to argue that maybe he was overlooking a significant number of leads where the leads were odd and cost badly... because the entire point was that these two players were WINNING at a truly astonishing rate, and it was impossible to win like that if the majority of your leads were costing imps.
And we are speaking of tournament reports: Kaplan was describing lengthy matches betweeen top teams, with discussion of every significant swing in the match.. not cherry picking a few hands to prove a point. If in a 64 board match he reported every swing hand, and the only odd leads proved effective, then it would appear that the inference that something improper was going on would appear strong... and that is my impression of what he was describing.
But, let me make it clear, we are discussing inferences here, not clear proof of anything... the inferences satisfied me, especially re-reading them after the Houston scandal, but maybe I have a suspicious mind, and maybe I was being unfair...as I wrote earlier, only K and C know for sure.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari